Portland Timbers vs San Diego
Portland Timbers secure solid win over San Diego
A trio of goals from Portland Timbers ensures a comfortable 3-1 victory.
Portland Timbers took the lead through K. Velde's strike before San Diego's Gabriel Pirani pulled one back just after the break. However, Portland quickly regained control with goals from A. Lassiter and David Pereira da Costa to seal a 3-1 win. Fipster's high-confidence prediction for a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline was a bit more emphatic than expected.
Outcome probability
Portland Timbers and San Diego face off in what promises to be a closely contested regular season match. Both teams sit mid-table with identical points, making this encounter crucial for climbing the standings.
Match factors
Portland's attacking trio in form
Kelsy and Mora show strong recent scoring form, supported by Velde's assists, creating a potent attack
David Pereira da Costa's creative influence
Leading assist provider with 6 assists, key to Portland's goal creation and linking play
San Diego's Dreyer and Ingvartsen key to scoring
Ingvartsen leads with 11 goals but no recent goals; Dreyer provides goals and assists, if fit can impact
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, maximizing tactical options and player continuity
The context
Portland Timbers currently hold 24 points from 18 games, placing them 10th in the league, while San Diego are just behind in 12th with the same points from 19 matches. Historically, their head-to-head clashes have been fairly balanced, with San Diego slightly ahead in wins, but recent form and home advantage could tip the scales.
Key insights
K. Kelsy
Portland Timbers
Top scorer for Portland with 9 goals, including 4 in the last 5 matches, making him a key offensive threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 17 appearances, 0.53 avg per game
David Pereira da Costa
Portland Timbers
Leading assist provider with 6 assists, crucial for creating scoring opportunities and linking play.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 15 appearances, 0.40 avg per game
M. Ingvartsen
San Diego
San Diego's top scorer with 11 goals, though currently without a goal in the last 5 games, remains a key threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 18 appearances, 0.61 avg per game
A. Dreyer
San Diego
Contributes both goals and assists with 7 each this season; fitness is a doubt but could impact the game if fit.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals and 7 assists in 18 appearances, 0.39 avg per game
Analysis
Portland's attacking prowess is spearheaded by K. Kelsy, who boasts 9 goals this season and has been particularly lethal at home, scoring 4 in his last 5 games. Midfielder David Pereira da Costa's creativity, with 6 assists, provides the perfect supply line. San Diego's main threats come from M. Ingvartsen, their top scorer with 11 goals, and A. Dreyer, who contributes both goals and assists. However, Dreyer's fitness remains a slight doubt. Both teams have full squads available, ensuring tactical flexibility.
Key facts
- 1.Portland Timbers have 24 points from 18 games (W7 D3 L8), ranked 10th in the league.
- 2.San Diego have 24 points from 19 games (W6 D6 L7), ranked 12th in the league.
- 3.In 7 head-to-head meetings, Portland have won 2, San Diego 3, with 2 draws.
- 4.K. Kelsy is Portland's top scorer with 9 goals, including 4 in the last 5 matches.
- 5.David Pereira da Costa leads Portland with 6 assists this season.
- 6.M. Ingvartsen is San Diego's top scorer with 11 goals this season.
- 7.Predicted fulltime scoreline of 2-1 is the most probable home win outcome at 21.5%.
Prediction
We anticipate a tight match with Portland Timbers narrowly clinching a 2-1 victory. The predicted halftime score is 1-0, consistent with Portland's strong home performances and their ability to convert chances through Kelsy and Mora. San Diego will push hard, but Portland's attacking trio and creative midfield edge should prove decisive.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Portland Timbers
Away — San Diego
The verdict
This fixture promises a competitive battle, but Portland's recent form and home advantage make them the favourites to take all three points. Expect a spirited contest with moments of quality from key players on both sides, ultimately ending in a 2-1 win for the Timbers.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lassiter
Yellow Card
Velde
Assist: Bassett
Pirani
Assist: Morgan
Lassiter
Assist: Fory
Valakari
Mighten
Bye
Pereira da Costa
Assist: Velde
Unknown
Velde
Bassett
Ingvartsen
Þórhallsson
Pereira da Costa
Lassiter
Verhoeven
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | +27 | 40 |
| 8 |  Real Salt Lake | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | +2 | 28 |
| 9 |  Portland Timbers | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | +1 | 28 |
| 10 |  Minnesota United FC | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | -2 | 28 |
| 11 |  San Diego | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | +5 | 27 |
| 12 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | -5 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Portland Timbers
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4K. MillerD
- 5B. ByeD
- 7A. LassiterM
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 17C. BassettM
- 19K. KelsyF
- 20F. SurmanD
- 27J. ForyD
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 41J. PantemisG
- 99K. VeldeM
Substitutes
- 11AntonyF
- 14V. JanssenF
- 15E. MillerD
- 21D. CharáM
- 22O. FernandezF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 25T. MuseG
- 80J. OrtizM
- 88Andrew GuerraF
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 6J. TverskovM
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 8O. ValakariM
- 9L. MorganF
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 77A. MightenF
Substitutes
- 18D. FerreeG
- 19D. VazquezM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 27L. BombinoD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 70A. AlvaradoF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 97C. McVeyD
- 99E. AchouriM
Portland Timbers
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Velde | M | 74 | 8.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5/7 |
| Kamal Miller | D | 94 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Pereira Da Costa | M | 83 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| José Caicedo | M | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jímer Fory | D | 94 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Finn Surman(C) | D | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Pantemis | G | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cole Bassett | M | 74 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Ariel Lassiter | M | 83 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Kevin Kelsy | F | 94 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Brandon Bye | D | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Omir Fernandez | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trey Muse | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Smith | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gage Guerra | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vincent Janssen | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joao Ortíz | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Eric Miller | D | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antony Alves | F | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Diego Chará | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Pirani | M | 94 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2/5 |
| Jeppe Tverskov(C) | M | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Manu Duah | D | 94 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Onni Valakari | M | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 74 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dagur Dan Þórhallsson | D | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Alex Mighten | F | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/5 |
| Lewis Morgan | F | 94 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Marcus Ingvartsen | F | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ian Murphy | D | 94 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CJ Dos Santos | G | 94 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Aníbal Godoy | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher McVey | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Vazquez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duran Ferree | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Bombino | D | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Alejandro Alvarado Jr | F | 36 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Amahl Pellegrino | F | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oscar Verhoeven | D | 20 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Elias Achouri | M | 35 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |