Portland Timbers vs Charlotte
Portland Timbers edge Charlotte in six-goal thriller
A late strike from C. Bassett seals a narrow 3-2 victory for Portland.
Charlotte started brightly with an early goal from Pep Biel, but Portland's A. Lassiter responded with a brace before the break to put the Timbers ahead. I. Toklomati Giorno brought Charlotte back into it after the break, setting up a tense finish. Ultimately, C. Bassett's stoppage-time winner secured the win for Portland. Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-2 home win proved spot on.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, Portland Timbers and Charlotte prepare for a high-scoring showdown. Both teams have shown attacking flair, setting the stage for a close contest.
Match factors
Portland's attacking trio in form
Kelsy, Velde, and Lassiter show strong scoring and assist synergy, boosting Portland's attack
Toklomati Giorno's scoring consistency
Giorno leads Charlotte with 13 goals and 4 in last 5 games, a key threat to Portland's defense
David Pereira da Costa's creative influence
David leads assists for Portland with 7, consistently creating chances despite recent drought
Portland's defensive injury crisis
Five defenders and goalkeeper out weaken Portland's defense, increasing risk against Charlotte's attack
The context
Portland Timbers currently sit 11th in their league with 33 points from 29 games, reflecting a mixed bag of results this season. Charlotte, meanwhile, will look to their key striker Idan Toklomati Giorno, who has netted 13 goals, to spearhead their attack. The match is part of the regular season's 31st round, with both sides eager to climb the standings.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Kelsy Genez
Portland Timbers
Leading scorer for Portland with 9 goals, showing strong home scoring form.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 19 appearances, 0.47 goals/game
Idan Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Top scorer with 13 goals and 4 in last 5 games, a key offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 27 appearances, 0.48 goals/game
David Pereira da Costa
Portland Timbers
Top assister with 7 assists, key playmaker linking midfield and attack.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 24 appearances, 0.29 assists/game
Analysis
Portland's attacking options are in decent form, with Kevin Kelsy Genez leading their scoring charts with 9 goals and Kristoffer Velde contributing 8 goals and 5 assists. David Pereira da Costa's creativity, with 7 assists, will be crucial in unlocking Charlotte's defence. However, Portland faces a defensive injury crisis, missing five defenders and their goalkeeper, which could make for a nervy afternoon. Charlotte's Giorno is a constant threat, having scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, ensuring Portland's backline will be under pressure.
Key facts
- 1.Portland Timbers are 11th in the league with 33 points from 29 games.
- 2.Idan Toklomati Giorno leads Charlotte with 13 goals this season.
- 3.Kevin Kelsy Genez has scored 9 goals for Portland in 19 appearances.
- 4.David Pereira da Costa tops Portland's assists with 7 this season.
- 5.Portland faces a defensive injury crisis with five defenders and goalkeeper out.
- 6.Kristoffer Velde has contributed 8 goals and 5 assists for Portland.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 2-1, consistent with the fulltime 3-2 result.
- 8.Four cards are expected in this competitive fixture.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for Portland Timbers with a 3-2 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 2-1, indicating an open and competitive first half. The match is also likely to see around four cards, reflecting the intensity and stakes involved.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Portland Timbers
Away — Charlotte
The verdict
Expect a thrilling encounter with Portland's attacking trio pushing hard against Charlotte's resilient forward line. Despite defensive concerns, Portland's firepower should just edge them past Charlotte in a match that promises goals and drama.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 04:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Biel
Assist: Westwood
Lassiter
Assist: Izoita
Izoita
Yellow Card
Lassiter
Assist: Izoita
Byrne
Yellow Card
Abada
Fory
Izoita
Toklomati Giorno
Assist: de la Torre
Aloko
Schnegg
Lassiter
Janssen
Westwood
Bassett
Assist: Smith
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 7 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 33 | 11 | 11 | 11 | -6 | 44 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 43 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | -1 | 43 |
Match Statistics
Portland Timbers
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2J. WatermanD
- 4K. MillerD
- 7A. LassiterF
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 12R. HernándezD
- 14V. JanssenF
- 27J. ForyD
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 41J. PantemisG
- 73Eric IzoitaM
- 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
- 15E. MillerD
- 17C. BassettM
- 20F. SurmanD
- 21D. CharáM
- 22O. FernandezF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 26H. SulteG
- 28A. AravenaF
- 80J. OrtizM
Charlotte
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 11L. AbadaM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 16Pep BielM
- 22H. KesslerD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 28D. DianiM
- 37R. AlokoM
- 44M. AgyemangD
Substitutes
- 4A. PrivettD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 20B. CoulibalyM
- 21T. MillerG
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 39J. NeeleyD
- 71N. RichmondF
Portland Timbers
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Lassiter | F | 83 | 9.2 | 2 | — | 4 | 4 | 1 | — |
| Eric Izoita | M | 64 | 8.3 | — | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | — |
| C. Bassett | M | 26 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 6 | 2 | 1 | — |
| K. Miller | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Velde | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | — |
| J. Waterman | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Fory | D | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| David Pereira da Costa | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| J. Caicedo | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 1/2 |
| R. Hernández | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| O. Fernandez | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Aravena | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Janssen | F | 83 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Ian Smith | D | 26 | 6.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Pantemis | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ortiz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Surman | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Sulte | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Chará | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Miller | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Kahlina | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Toklomati Giorno | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/3 |
| Pep Biel | M | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| A. Westwood | M | 85 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Agyemang | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Kessler | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Diani | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyger Smalls | F | 19 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| L. de la Torre | M | 28 | 6.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Aloko | M | 71 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| H. Toffolo | D | 19 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Schnegg | D | 71 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Abada | M | 62 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| B. Coulibaly | M | 5 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Byrne | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Neeley | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Richmond | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Miller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Privett | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Portland Timbers vs Charlotte?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Portland Timbers to win against Charlotte.
- What score did Fipster predict for Portland Timbers vs Charlotte?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Portland Timbers 3–2 Charlotte.
- What were the win probabilities for Portland Timbers vs Charlotte?
- Fipster's model gave Portland Timbers a 85% chance of winning, Charlotte a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.