Portland Timbers vs Austin
Austin stuns Portland with late winner
A tight 2-1 victory for Austin spoils Portland's day despite a penalty equaliser.
Austin took the lead through F. Torres in the first half and held firm despite Portland Timbers pulling one back via Antony's penalty in the 89th minute. Just as Portland looked to salvage a draw, O. Svatok sealed the win for Austin deep into stoppage time. This result was a clear upset, defying Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a comfortable Portland win.
Outcome probability
Portland Timbers and Austin face off in this MLS regular season clash, with Portland looking to extend their solid home form. Both teams have had mixed fortunes this season, but the Timbers' attacking midfield creativity and goal-scoring threat give them the edge.
Match factors
Portland's attacking midfield creativity
Portland's midfielders K. Velde and David Pereira da Costa provide strong assist potential, enhancing scoring chances
K. Kelsy's scoring form at home
Kelsy has 9 goals this season with a strong home scoring rate of 0.4 goals per game, boosting Portland's goal threat
Portland's recent scoring streak
Portland has scored in last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum
Austin's reliance on M. Uzuni
Uzuni is Austin's top scorer and key offensive outlet, but recent goal drought limits threat
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing key players
The context
Portland currently sit 9th in the league with 28 points from 21 games, while Austin are 14th with 21 points. Portland's superior goal difference and recent scoring streak at home highlight their offensive momentum. Austin rely heavily on their top scorer, M. Uzuni, who has struggled to find the net recently.
Key insights
K. Kelsy
Portland Timbers
Kelsy has been clinical at home, scoring 9 goals this season with a strong rate of 0.4 goals per game, making him the key finisher for Portland.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 20 apps, 0.45 avg per game
K. Velde
Portland Timbers
Velde's creativity shines with 6 assists this season and 4 in the last 5 games, providing excellent service to the forwards.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 20 apps, 0.3 avg per game
David Pereira da Costa
Portland Timbers
David Pereira da Costa is a creative hub with 6 assists and strong recent form, key to Portland's attacking play.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 18 apps, 0.33 avg per game
M. Uzuni
Austin
Uzuni is Austin's leading scorer with 6 goals but has been in a goal drought over the last 5 games, limiting Austin's offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 18 apps, 0.33 avg per game
Analysis
Portland's attacking midfielders, K. Velde and David Pereira da Costa, provide excellent assist potential, complementing top scorer K. Kelsy's strong home scoring record. Austin's offensive threat is limited by Uzuni's recent goal drought. With both teams at full strength, Portland's home advantage and attacking depth should prove decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Portland Timbers are 9th in the league with 28 points from 21 games (W8 D4 L9).
- 2.Austin are 14th in the league with 21 points from 21 games (W5 D6 L10).
- 3.Portland have a significantly better goal difference (+15) than Austin this season.
- 4.K. Kelsy leads Portland with 9 goals, boasting a strong home scoring rate of 0.4 goals per game.
- 5.K. Velde is Portland's top assister with 6 assists and has 4 assists in the last 5 games.
- 6.Portland have scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 7.Austin's top scorer M. Uzuni has 6 goals but is currently in a 5-game goal drought.
- 8.No confirmed injuries for either team, so both squads are at full strength.
Prediction
We expect Portland Timbers to take an early lead, reflected in a 2-0 halftime score, before cruising to a 4-1 fulltime victory. The match is likely to feature around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Portland Timbers
Away — Austin
The verdict
In summary, Portland's combination of home form, creative midfield play, and clinical finishing makes them the clear favourites to secure a comfortable win over Austin. Fans can anticipate an entertaining match with plenty of goals and a confident Timbers performance.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Torres
Assist: Rosales
Biro
Yellow Card
Desler
Yellow Card
Alastuey
Gallagher
Guerra
Desler
Fory
Bassett
Miller
Torres
Bell
Caicedo
Yellow Card
Svatok
Yellow Card
Antony
Penalty
Svatok
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | +30 | 46 |
| 7 |  Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | +1 | 35 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 0 | 32 |
| 9 |  San Diego | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 30 |
| 12 |  Minnesota United FC | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -6 | 29 |
| 13 |  Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | -12 | 29 |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | -5 | 28 |
Match Statistics
Portland Timbers
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4K. MillerD
- 7A. LassiterF
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 15E. MillerD
- 17C. BassettM
- 20F. SurmanD
- 27J. ForyD
- 30J. CaicedoM
- 41J. PantemisG
- 88Andrew GuerraF
- 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
- 6A. BonetigD
- 11AntonyF
- 16S. JuraD
- 18Z. McGrawD
- 22O. FernandezF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 26H. SulteG
- 73E. IzoitaM
- 80J. OrtizM
Austin
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1B. StuverG
- 3M. DeslerD
- 9B. VázquezF
- 11F. TorresF
- 14B. ŠabovićM
- 15J. BellD
- 17J. GallagherM
- 24Jorge AlastueyF
- 29Guilherme BiroD
- 30J. RosalesM
- 38Ervin TorresM
Substitutes
- 4B. Hines-IkeD
- 5O. SvatokD
- 6Ilie SánchezM
- 12D. LasG
- 21C. RamirezF
- 23Ž. KolmaničD
- 32M. BurtonM
- 35M. ĐorđevićD
- 77P. PłachetaM
Portland Timbers
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Surman(C) | D | 96 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Caicedo | M | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kamal Miller | D | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Pereira Da Costa | M | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Cole Bassett | M | 75 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Jímer Fory | D | 75 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kristoffer Velde | F | 96 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/6 |
| Gage Guerra | F | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Eric Miller | D | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| James Pantemis | G | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ariel Lassiter | F | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Hunter Sulte | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zac McGraw | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bonetig | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sawyer Jura | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Izoita | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antony Alves | F | 33 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Omir Fernandez | F | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joao Ortíz | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Smith | D | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Austin
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Facundo Torres | F | 83 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Besard Sabović | M | 96 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Ervin Torres | M | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jonathan Bell | D | 83 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brad Stuver(C) | G | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jorge Alastuey | F | 63 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mikkel Desler | D | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Gallagher | M | 63 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Joseph Rosales | M | 96 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/4 |
| Guilherme Biro | D | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Vázquez | F | 96 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Micah Burton | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Ramirez | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateja Đorđević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Damian Las | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oleksandr Svatok | D | 13 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Žan Kolmanič | D | 33 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Brendan Hines-Ike | D | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilie Sánchez | M | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Przemysław Płacheta | M | 33 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |