Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match recap
San Jose Earthquakes beat Philadelphia Union 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Bouda scored for San Jose Earthquakes. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.08 for Philadelphia Union versus 0.75 for San Jose Earthquakes.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Philadelphia Union win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
Philadelphia Union and San Jose Earthquakes face off in the third round of the regular season, with both sides eager to make their mark early on. The Union's attacking firepower at home looks set to be the difference in this encounter.
Match factors
Philadelphia's potent home attack led by Iloski
Iloski's 16 goals this season and strong home form give Philadelphia a clear attacking edge at home.
Westfield's exceptional assist contribution
Westfield's 7 assists this season far exceed league average for defenders, boosting Philadelphia's chance creation.
Philadelphia's recent scoring streak
Philadelphia has scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum.
San Jose's midfield weakened by Skahan's absence
Skahan is confirmed out, reducing San Jose's creative options and assist potential in midfield.
Judd's scoring threat for San Jose
Judd leads San Jose with 15 goals and good recent form, posing a key threat despite away setting.
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season where Philadelphia Union have demonstrated solid home performances. San Jose Earthquakes, currently ranked 4th in their league, bring a competitive edge but face challenges with key midfield absences.
Key insights
M. Iloski
Philadelphia Union
Iloski's 16 goals this season and strong home scoring rate make him a potent threat for Philadelphia at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals in 27 apps, strong home scoring rate (1.67 goals/game)
F. Westfield
Philadelphia Union
Westfield's 7 assists this season, exceptional for a defender, significantly boost Philadelphia's chance creation.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 22 apps, 3 assists last 5 games
P. Judd
San Jose Earthquakes
Judd leads San Jose with 15 goals and good recent form, posing a key scoring threat despite playing away.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 25 apps, 4 goals last 10 games
- J
J. Skahan
San Jose Earthquakes
Skahan's confirmed absence reduces San Jose's midfield creativity and assist potential, impacting their attacking options.
Analysis
Philadelphia Union's attack is spearheaded by M. Iloski, who boasts 16 goals this season and an impressive home scoring rate of 1.67 goals per game. Their creative force, F. Westfield, leads with 7 assists, providing quality service from defence. San Jose's main threat comes from P. Judd, their leading scorer with 15 goals, but the absence of J. Skahan in midfield weakens their creative options. The Union's recent scoring streak at home and superior chance creation suggest they will dominate proceedings.
Key facts
- 1.Philadelphia Union have a strong home scoring rate, led by M. Iloski with 16 goals this season.
- 2.F. Westfield is the top assister for Philadelphia with 7 assists, boosting their attacking threat.
- 3.San Jose Earthquakes sit 4th in their league with 46 points from 28 games.
- 4.P. Judd leads San Jose with 15 goals, maintaining good recent form.
- 5.J. Skahan is out injured for San Jose, weakening their midfield creativity.
- 6.Philadelphia Union have scored in their last 5 home games, showing consistent offensive form.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 2-0 in favour of Philadelphia Union.
- 8.The match is expected to see around 4 cards, indicating a competitive game.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a home win for Philadelphia Union with a 3-1 scoreline. A halftime lead of 2-0 aligns with their attacking momentum, and the match is expected to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Philadelphia Union
Away — San Jose Earthquakes
The verdict
Expect Philadelphia Union to leverage their home advantage and attacking strengths to claim a convincing 3-1 victory over San Jose Earthquakes. San Jose will pose some threat but are likely to fall short without their key creative midfielder.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:22 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kikanovic
Yellow Card
Lukić
Yellow Card
Anello
Ricketts
Bouda
Assist: Werner
Lukić
Harriel
Yellow Card
Iloski
Damiani
Judd
Yellow Card
Judd
Sequera
Leroux
Alladoh
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 31 | 16 | 7 | 8 | +31 | 55 |
| 3 |  St. Louis City | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 51 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | +7 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | +2 | 48 |
Match Statistics
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4J. LukićM
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiM
- 18A. BlakeG
- 19I. VassilevM
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 26N. HarrielD
- 28A. AnelloF
- 38G. SequeraD
- 39F. WestfieldD
Substitutes
- 2G. MartínezD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 37Stas KornzeniowskiF
- 76A. RickG
San Jose Earthquakes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2J. RickettsM
- 5D. MunieD
- 7O. BoudaM
- 10N. TsakirisM
- 14R. VieiraM
- 18R. RobertsD
- 19P. JuddF
- 24D. JonesD
- 28B. KikanovicD
- 34Beau LerouxM
- 42DanielG
Substitutes
- 3P. MarieD
- 4D. RomneyD
- 6I. HarkesM
- 11T. WernerF
- 16J. SkahanM
- 20N. FernandezM
- 36E. EdwardsG
- 40J. GónzalezM
- 87Vítor CostaD
Philadelphia Union
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Westfield | D | 94 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Milan Iloski | M | 74 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Giovanny Sequera | D | 82 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Indiana Vassilev | M | 94 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Andre Blake(C) | G | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japhet Sery Larsen | D | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danley Jean Jacques | M | 94 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustin Anello | F | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Damiani | F | 74 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jovan Lukić | M | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nathan Harriel | D | 94 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Geiner Martínez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Rafanello | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cavan Sullivan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Rick | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Bedoya | M | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesus Bueno | M | 34 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ben Bender | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ezekiel Alladoh | F | 49 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Stas Kornzeniowski | F | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
San Jose Earthquakes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel | G | 94 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| DeJuan Jones(C) | D | 94 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Benjamin Kikanović | D | 94 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Ousseni Bouda | M | 94 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Daniel Munie | D | 94 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronaldo Vieira | M | 94 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beau Leroux | M | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Jamar Ricketts | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Reid Roberts | D | 94 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Niko Tsakiris | M | 94 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Preston Judd | F | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nick Fernandez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Gonzalez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Costa | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dave Romney | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Marie | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Earl Edwards Jr. | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Timo Werner | F | 49 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Jack Skahan | M | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Harkes | M | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Philadelphia Union to win against San Jose Earthquakes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Philadelphia Union 3–1 San Jose Earthquakes.
- What were the win probabilities for Philadelphia Union vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Fipster's model gave Philadelphia Union a 93% chance of winning, San Jose Earthquakes a 3% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 93% confidence — a high-confidence call.