Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC
Match recap
New York City FC beat Philadelphia Union 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Vassilev scored for Philadelphia Union; Wolf and Gray replied for New York City FC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.03 for Philadelphia Union versus 2.44 for New York City FC.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Philadelphia Union win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
The early stages of the 2026 MLS season see Philadelphia Union and New York City FC face off in what promises to be an entertaining clash. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality, but the Union's recent form and attacking firepower suggest they will take control.
Match factors
Philadelphia's potent strike duo in form
Iloski and Damiani have combined for 22 goals this season with strong recent form, likely to exploit NYCFC defense
Westfield's creative threat from defense
Westfield leads assists for Philadelphia with 7, providing key crosses and set-piece deliveries
Philadelphia's scoring streak at home
Philadelphia has scored in last 5 home games, averaging over 1.7 goals per game at home recently
Ojeda's playmaking for NYCFC
Ojeda has 9 assists this season and 4 in last 5 games, key to NYCFC's attacking creation
Full squad availability boosts Philadelphia's attacking options
No confirmed injuries for Philadelphia, allowing full strength attack and midfield creativity
The context
This match is part of the regular season's second round, with both sides eager to establish momentum. Philadelphia Union have demonstrated consistent scoring at home, while New York City FC rely heavily on their creative midfielders to unlock defences. The fixture is a key opportunity for the Union to assert dominance in the league standings.
Key insights
M. Iloski
Philadelphia Union
Top scorer with 16 goals and excellent recent form, making him a key threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals in 27 apps, 6 goals in last 5 games
B. Damiani
Philadelphia Union
Second top scorer with 8 goals, strong recent scoring form complements Iloski well.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 27 apps, 6 goals in last 5 games
F. Westfield
Philadelphia Union
Leading assister with 7 assists, providing crucial creativity from defence.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 22 apps, 3 assists in last 5 games
A. Ojeda
New York City FC
Top assister for away team with 9 assists, key to their attacking creation.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 27 apps, 4 assists in last 5 games
Analysis
Philadelphia Union's attack, led by the prolific M. Iloski and supported by B. Damiani, has been in fine form, combining for 22 goals this season. Their home scoring streak and creative contributions from defender F. Westfield add to their threat. New York City FC's playmaker A. Ojeda remains a danger with his assist tally, but the Union's defensive solidity and attacking depth are likely to overwhelm the visitors.
Key facts
- 1.Philadelphia Union have scored in their last 5 home games, averaging over 1.7 goals per game.
- 2.M. Iloski leads Philadelphia with 16 goals this season, including 6 in the last 5 games.
- 3.B. Damiani has contributed 8 goals, with 6 scored recently, forming a potent strike partnership.
- 4.F. Westfield is the leading assister for Philadelphia with 7 assists, including 3 in the last 5 games.
- 5.A. Ojeda is New York City FC's top assister with 9 assists, 4 of which came in the last 5 games.
- 6.Philadelphia Union have no confirmed injuries, allowing full attacking options.
- 7.The predicted final score is 4-1 in favour of Philadelphia Union.
- 8.The halftime score prediction is 2-0 to Philadelphia Union, consistent with the fulltime forecast.
Prediction
The prediction favours a strong home win for Philadelphia Union, with a final scoreline of 4-1. The Union are expected to take an early lead, building on a 2-0 halftime advantage and maintaining pressure throughout. The match should feature a moderate number of cards, around four, reflecting competitive but controlled play.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Philadelphia Union
Away — New York City FC
No standout top scorers flagged for New York City FC
The verdict
In summary, Philadelphia Union's combination of form, home advantage, and attacking talent makes them the clear favourites to secure a convincing victory over New York City FC. Fans can expect an entertaining match with plenty of goals and a confident performance from the Union.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:15 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gray
Yellow Card
Makhanya
Yellow Card
Wolf
O'Neill
Yellow Card
Anello
Westfield
Penalty cancelled
Moralez
Iloski
Damiani
O'Neill
Wolf
Vassilev
Penalty
Fernández Mercau
Makhanya
Yellow Card
Makhanya
Red Card
Vassilev
Sery Larsen
Yellow Card
Gray
Assist: Ojeda
Match Statistics
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4J. LukićM
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiF
- 18A. BlakeG
- 19I. VassilevM
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 26N. HarrielD
- 28A. AnelloM
- 29O. MakhanyaD
- 39F. WestfieldD
Substitutes
- 2G. MartínezD
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 37Stas KornzeniowskiF
- 55Sal OlivasF
- 76A. RickG
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 7N. Fernández MercauF
- 10M. MoralezM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 49M. FreeseG
- 55K. ParksM
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 5K. TrewinD
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 19S. TanasijevićD
- 29M. CarrizoM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 38A. BaieraD
- 99S. ReidF
Philadelphia Union
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Blake(C) | G | 102 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Indiana Vassilev | M | 94 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Bruno Damiani | F | 83 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Frankie Westfield | D | 59 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Olwethu Makhanya | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danley Jean Jacques | M | 102 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Nathan Harriel | D | 102 | 6.9 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 2/2 |
| Japhet Sery Larsen | D | 102 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Milan Iloski | F | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Agustin Anello | M | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Jovan Lukić | M | 102 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Andrew Rick | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Bedoya | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesus Bueno | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeremy Rafanello | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Bender | M | 43 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Stas Kornzeniowski | F | 43 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Cavan Sullivan | M | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geiner Martínez | D | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sal Olivas | F | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tayvon Gray | D | 102 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/3 |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 83 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 102 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hannes Wolf | M | 83 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 102 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/4 |
| Keaton Parks | M | 102 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 102 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Maxi Moralez | M | 74 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | 102 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Martins(C) | D | 102 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nico Cavallo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Shore | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Máximo Carrizo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Tanasijević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seymour Garfield-Reid | F | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Andrew Baiera | D | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kai Trewin | D | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Philadelphia Union to win against New York City FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Philadelphia Union 4–1 New York City FC.
- What were the win probabilities for Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's model gave Philadelphia Union a 95% chance of winning, New York City FC a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.