Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
Match recap
Chicago Fire beat Philadelphia Union 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Iloski scored for Philadelphia Union; Cuypers and Bamba replied for Chicago Fire. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.85 for Philadelphia Union versus 2.52 for Chicago Fire.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Philadelphia Union win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
Philadelphia Union and Chicago Fire face off in what promises to be an engaging MLS regular season encounter. Both teams boast key offensive talents, but the Union's recent form and attacking duo look set to make the difference.
Match factors
Philadelphia's potent strike duo in form
Iloski and Damiani have combined for 22 goals this season with strong recent scoring, posing a major threat to Chicago's defense
Westfield's creative output from defense
Westfield leads defenders league-wide in assists with 7, including 3 in last 5 games, boosting Philadelphia's attack
Chicago's Cuypers prolific but recent drought
Cuypers has 13 goals in 11 games but none in last 5, indicating potential for a return to scoring
Zinckernagel's creative midfield role for Chicago
Zinckernagel tops Chicago's assists with 8 and is key in chance creation, vital against Philadelphia's defense
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
This match is part of the 2026 MLS regular season, round 5. Philadelphia Union and Chicago Fire have met 20 times previously, with the Union winning 11 of those encounters. Their head-to-head matches tend to be high scoring, averaging 3.4 goals per game, setting the stage for an entertaining contest.
Key insights
Milan Iloski
Philadelphia Union
League-leading 16 goals this season with strong recent form, making him a key attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals in 27 apps, 1.2 goals/game last 5
Francis Westfield
Philadelphia Union
Top assister from defence with 7 assists, including 3 in last 5 games, boosting Philadelphia's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 22 apps, 0.6 assists/game last 5
Hugo Cuypers
Chicago Fire
Prolific scorer with 13 goals in 11 games but no goals in last 5, indicating potential for a return.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 11 apps, 1.18 goals/game season
Philip Frigast Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
Creative midfield presence and top assister with 8 assists, vital for chance creation.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 26 apps
Analysis
Philadelphia Union's strike partnership of Milan Iloski and Bruno Damiani has been in fine form, combining for 22 goals this season. Iloski leads the league with 16 goals and has netted six in his last five games, making him a constant threat. Meanwhile, defender Francis Westfield's creativity from the back, with seven assists including three recently, adds another dimension to their attack. Chicago Fire's Hugo Cuypers remains a prolific scorer with 13 goals in 11 games, though he has been quiet in recent matches. Their creative midfielder Philip Frigast Zinckernagel, top assister with eight, will be key to unlocking Philadelphia's defence.
Key facts
- 1.Philadelphia Union have won 11 of 20 meetings against Chicago Fire.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.4 goals, indicating high-scoring games.
- 3.Milan Iloski leads Philadelphia with 16 goals this season.
- 4.Bruno Damiani has scored 8 goals, complementing Iloski well.
- 5.Francis Westfield leads defenders in assists with 7 this season.
- 6.Hugo Cuypers has 13 goals in 11 games for Chicago Fire.
- 7.Philip Frigast Zinckernagel tops Chicago's assists with 8.
Prediction
We predict a 3-1 victory for Philadelphia Union. Their attacking firepower, particularly from Iloski and Damiani, combined with Westfield's creative contributions, should outmatch Chicago Fire. The Union are expected to take control early, building on a strong first-half performance to secure the win.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Philadelphia Union
Away — Chicago Fire
The verdict
In summary, Philadelphia Union's blend of goal-scoring prowess and creative support gives them the edge over Chicago Fire. Expect a lively match with the Union emerging victorious 3-1, continuing their strong start to the MLS season.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:13 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Lod
Yellow Card
D'Avilla
Yellow Card
Zinckernagel
Ndinga Ossibadjouo
Yellow Card
Cuypers
Assist: Gutman
Iloski
Assist: Bedoya
Gutman
Bueno
Bamba
Bedoya
Sullivan
Jean-Jacques
Ndinga Ossibadjouo
Radojević
Yellow Card
Bamba
Lod
Match Statistics
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Starting XI
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 8J. BuenoM
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiF
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 18A. BlakeG
- 20P. Ndinga OssibadjouoD
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 26N. HarrielD
- 29O. MakhanyaD
- 39F. WestfieldD
Substitutes
- 2G. MartínezD
- 4J. LukićM
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 19I. VassilevM
- 37Stas KornzeniowskiF
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 76A. RickG
Chicago Fire
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1C. BradyG
- 2Leonardo BarrosoD
- 4M. MbokaziD
- 6A. SalétrosM
- 9H. CuypersF
- 11P. ZinckernagelM
- 15A. GutmanD
- 16J. WatermanD
- 17R. LodM
- 19J. BambaM
- 42T. D'AvillaM
Substitutes
- 7M. Haile-SelassieM
- 12P. DithejaneF
- 14V. RadojevićD
- 20Jason ShokalookF
- 22M. PinedaD
- 24J. DeanM
- 25J. GalG
- 30J. SandmeyerD
- 35S. OregelM
Philadelphia Union
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frankie Westfield | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Andre Blake | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danley Jean Jacques | M | 66 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Milan Iloski | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Bruno Damiani | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Alejandro Bedoya(C) | M | 62 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Philippe Ndinga | D | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Nathan Harriel | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Cavan Sullivan | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| Jesus Bueno | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Olwethu Makhanya | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Andrew Rick | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Japhet Sery Larsen | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stas Kornzeniowski | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Geiner Martínez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Bender | M | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jovan Lukić | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Indiana Vassilev | M | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Jeremy Rafanello | M | 24 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Malik Jakupovic | F | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
Chicago Fire
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bamba | M | 89 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Mbekezeli Mbokazi | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Joel Waterman | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hugo Cuypers | F | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Anton Salétros(C) | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Andrew Gutman | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dje Tah D'Avilla | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Leonardo Barroso | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chris Brady | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Philip Zinckernagel | M | 31 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Robin Lod | M | 89 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/7 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jack Sandmeyer | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jason Shokalook | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Puso Dithejane | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Oregel | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Dean | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio Pineda | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeffrey Gal | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maren Haile-Selassie | M | 59 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Viktor Radojević | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Philadelphia Union to win against Chicago Fire.
- What score did Fipster predict for Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Philadelphia Union 3–1 Chicago Fire.
- What were the win probabilities for Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire?
- Fipster's model gave Philadelphia Union a 85% chance of winning, Chicago Fire a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.