Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte
Charlotte snatches draw at Philadelphia
A spirited fightback sees Charlotte claw back twice to deny Philadelphia a home win.
Philadelphia Union looked set for victory after M. Iloski's early penalty and B. Damiani's strike after the break. However, Charlotte responded with goals from R. Aloko and I. Toklomati Giorno to secure a 2-2 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-1 home win, turning what seemed a straightforward match into a shared spoils affair.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its close, Philadelphia Union face Charlotte in what promises to be an engaging encounter. Both teams have shown moments of quality, but the Union's home prowess and attacking depth give them the edge.
Match factors
Philadelphia's potent home attack led by Iloski
Milan Iloski's strong home scoring form (2 goals per game last 2 home matches) gives Philadelphia a clear attacking edge at home.
Westfield's exceptional assist contribution
Francis Westfield leads with 8 assists this season, significantly above league average for defenders, boosting Philadelphia's chance creation.
Charlotte's key attacker Giorno in good recent form
Idan Toklomati Giorno has scored 4 goals in last 5 games, showing strong form despite away challenge.
Philadelphia missing Anello reduces attacking depth
Agustin Anello is confirmed out, removing a forward option and increasing reliance on Iloski and Damiani.
The context
This match is part of the 2026 regular season, round 30. Philadelphia Union and Charlotte have met 10 times previously, with an even split of wins and draws. Their head-to-head clashes average just over two goals per game, indicating a moderately open contest.
Key insights
Milan Iloski
Philadelphia Union
Iloski's strong home scoring form, with 2 goals per game in his last 2 home matches, gives Philadelphia a clear attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/2717 goals in 27 apps, 6 goals last 5 games
Francis Westfield
Philadelphia Union
Westfield leads with 8 assists this season, significantly boosting Philadelphia's chance creation from defence.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 22 apps, 3 assists last 5 games
Idan Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Giorno's recent form with 4 goals in the last 5 games makes him a key threat despite the away challenge.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 26 apps, 4 goals last 5 games
Analysis
Philadelphia Union boast a potent attack at home, spearheaded by Milan Iloski, who has netted 17 goals this season, including a remarkable six in his last five games. Francis Westfield's eight assists, exceptional for a defender, further enhance their chance creation. Charlotte's leading scorer, Idan Toklomati Giorno, has been in good form with four goals in his last five matches, but the Union's attacking firepower and home advantage are likely to prevail. Philadelphia will miss Agustin Anello due to injury, slightly reducing their attacking options, but Iloski and Bruno Damiani's consistent scoring should compensate.
Key facts
- 1.Philadelphia Union and Charlotte have each won 4 of their 10 head-to-head meetings, with 2 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals per game, with Charlotte scoring slightly more overall.
- 3.Milan Iloski leads Philadelphia with 17 goals this season, including 6 in the last 5 games.
- 4.Francis Westfield has provided 8 assists this season, an exceptional tally for a defender.
- 5.Charlotte's Idan Toklomati Giorno has scored 12 goals this season, with 4 in the last 5 games.
- 6.Philadelphia Union are missing Agustin Anello due to injury, affecting their attacking depth.
Prediction
The forecast is a 3-1 victory for Philadelphia Union, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to feature four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. The Union's home scoring rate and recent form make them the favourites to secure all three points.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Philadelphia Union
Away — Charlotte
The verdict
In summary, Philadelphia Union's attacking strengths and home form position them well to overcome Charlotte. While Charlotte will provide resistance, the Union's ability to convert chances and control the game should see them through to a confident 3-1 win.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 02:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Saint-Maximin
Yellow Card
Iloski
Penalty
Agyemang
Yellow Card
Schnegg
Yellow Card
Aloko
Assist: Toklomati Giorno
Vassilev
Toklomati Giorno
Assist: Schnegg
Damiani
Assist: Jean-Jacques
Damiani
Diani
Saint-Maximin
Schnegg
Aloko
Match Statistics
Philadelphia Union
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4J. LukićM
- 6Cavan SullivanM
- 9B. DamianiF
- 10M. IloskiF
- 18A. BlakeG
- 19I. VassilevM
- 21D. Jean-JacquesM
- 26N. HarrielD
- 27K. WagnerD
- 39F. WestfieldD
- 44Neil PierreD
Substitutes
- 5J. Sery LarsenD
- 11A. BedoyaM
- 14J. RafanelloM
- 16B. BenderM
- 23E. AlladohF
- 28A. AnelloF
- 33Q. SullivanM
- 51M. JakupovicF
- 76A. RickG
Charlotte
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 10A. Saint-MaximinF
- 14N. ByrneD
- 16Pep BielM
- 22H. KesslerD
- 23D. SchneggD
- 28D. DianiM
- 37R. AlokoF
- 44M. AgyemangD
Substitutes
- 3T. ReamD
- 4A. PrivettD
- 11L. AbadaF
- 13B. BronicoM
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 21T. MillerG
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 35Will ClearyD
Philadelphia Union
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Damiani | F | 82 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| D. Jean-Jacques | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Neil Pierre | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Iloski | F | 90 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Q. Sullivan | M | 35 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| K. Wagner | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| M. Jakupovic | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Lukić | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| N. Harriel | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| F. Westfield | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Blake | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cavan Sullivan | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| I. Vassilev | M | 55 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Rafanello | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Sery Larsen | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bedoya | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Alladoh | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rick | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Bender | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Anello | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Toklomati Giorno | F | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/2 |
| R. Aloko | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | 3/6 |
| Pep Biel | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| D. Schnegg | D | 83 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| H. Kessler | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Abada | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Westwood | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| A. Saint-Maximin | F | 83 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6/9 |
| D. Diani | M | 83 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Byrne | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Kahlina | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Toffolo | D | 7 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. de la Torre | M | 7 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Agyemang | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Bronico | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Miller | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyger Smalls | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Privett | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Will Cleary | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Ream | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Philadelphia Union to win against Charlotte.
- What score did Fipster predict for Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Philadelphia Union 3–1 Charlotte.
- What were the win probabilities for Philadelphia Union vs Charlotte?
- Fipster's model gave Philadelphia Union a 95% chance of winning, Charlotte a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.