PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur
Cambuur snatch narrow win at Zwolle
N. Binder's late strike secures all three points for the visitors.
Cambuur edged out PEC Zwolle 1-0 thanks to N. Binder's decisive goal in the 83rd minute. The match was a tight affair with the solitary goal making all the difference. Fipster's prediction of an away win was on the money, albeit the exact scoreline proved slightly off.
Outcome probability
PEC Zwolle and Cambuur face off in what promises to be a closely contested encounter between two sides languishing near the foot of the league table. Both teams have struggled for points this season, making this match crucial for their survival hopes.
Match factors
Kostons' strong recent scoring form
Koen Kostons has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, well above league average for attackers, boosting PEC Zwolle's scoring chances
Mbayo's creative influence in away matches
Dylan Mbayo has 3 assists this season with a high away assist rate (1 per game), key for PEC Zwolle's attacking threat on the road
Cambuur's doubtful attacker Ilyes Hamache
Hamache is doubtful but scored twice in recent home win; if fit, he could significantly boost Cambuur's attack
Defensive tackling strength of Aertssen vs Cambuur attack
Olivier Aertssen averages 3.6 tackles per game, above league average, crucial to disrupt Cambuur's offensive plays
PEC Zwolle's defensive vulnerabilities
PEC Zwolle concedes an average of 4 goals per home game, indicating defensive frailty that Cambuur may exploit
The context
Currently sitting 16th and 15th respectively, PEC Zwolle and Cambuur have each collected just 4 points, with PEC Zwolle having played one more game. Cambuur boast a notably better goal difference, which could be a telling factor in this tight battle.
Key insights
Koen Kostons
PEC Zwolle
Koen Kostons has been in excellent form, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 games, well above the league average for attackers, boosting PEC Zwolle's scoring chances.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in last 5 games, 7 appearances, 597 mins
Dylan Mbayo
PEC Zwolle
Dylan Mbayo has been a creative force with 3 assists this season and a strong away assist rate, key for PEC Zwolle's attacking threat.
Eredivisie 26/273 assists in 7 games, 535 mins, 0 yellow cards
- I
I. Hamache
Cambuur
Cambuur's attacker Ilyes Hamache is doubtful but has scored twice recently, potentially boosting Cambuur's attack if fit.
Eredivisie 26/272 goals in recent home win
Analysis
Cambuur's superior goal difference and slightly better form suggest they have the upper hand despite the close league positions. PEC Zwolle's defensive vulnerabilities, conceding an average of 4 goals per home game, may be exploited by Cambuur's attack. Key players like Koen Kostons for PEC Zwolle, who has netted 4 goals in his last 5 games, will be vital, but Cambuur's overall edge in goal difference and league standing points to an away win.
Key facts
- 1.PEC Zwolle are 16th with 4 points from 7 games (W1 D1 L5).
- 2.Cambuur are 15th with 4 points from 6 games (W1 D1 L4).
- 3.Cambuur have a significantly better goal difference than PEC Zwolle this season.
- 4.PEC Zwolle concedes an average of 4 goals per home game, indicating defensive frailty.
- 5.Koen Kostons has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games for PEC Zwolle.
- 6.Dylan Mbayo leads PEC Zwolle with 3 assists this season, showing creative influence.
- 7.Away wins have the highest aggregated probability at 51.8% for this match.
Prediction
The prediction is a 2-1 victory for Cambuur. While PEC Zwolle's Kostons is in fine scoring form, Cambuur's collective strength and defensive solidity should see them edge this encounter. Expect a competitive match with Cambuur just shading it.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — PEC Zwolle
Away — Cambuur
No standout top scorers flagged for Cambuur
The verdict
This fixture is a must-watch for fans of tight, competitive football near the bottom of the table. Cambuur's slight advantage in goal difference and form should be enough to secure the win, but PEC Zwolle's attacking threat means nothing will come easy.
Prediction generated 19 Sep 2026, 16:28 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Floranus
Yellow Card
Bouah
Yellow Card
Kvam
Ethan Apkakou
Cissoko
Yellow Card
Çeka
Yellow Card
Kostons
Cissoko
Maertens
Costarelli
Yellow Card
Bouah
Mbayo
Oosting
Amofa
Binder
Reiziger
Yellow Card
Floranus
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 |  Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 |  Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 15 |  Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
Match Statistics
PEC Zwolle
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1J. SchendelaarG
- 2S. FloranusD
- 3O. AertssenD
- 8T. SommerM
- 10K. KostonsF
- 11D. MbayoM
- 22I. CissokoM
- 24N. ViergeverD
- 25T. OostingM
- 28S. GravesD
- 30R. ThomasM
Substitutes
- 4T. VelthuisD
- 6Jan BürgerD
- 9E. SørensenF
- 16T. de GraaffG
- 17S. van HooijdonkF
- 18O. VelanasM
- 20G. ReizigerM
- 26Jadiel Pereira da GamaM
- 33D. van der HaarD
- 34N. FichtingerM
- 37Gilles van der WalM
- 41D. VerduinG
Cambuur
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1T. JansenG
- 2D. BouahD
- 4I. BaoufD
- 8N. SourenM
- 10R. El ArguiouiM
- 11I. HamacheM
- 14B. van DuijlD
- 15F. KvamM
- 17Ethan ApkakouM
- 28M. CostarelliD
- 33M. MaertensF
Substitutes
- 3J. BerkhoutD
- 6J. AmofaD
- 7S. BouhoudaneF
- 9S. VinkF
- 13N. BinderF
- 16R. MuldersD
- 22L. PlogmannG
- 23L. JettenD
- 24M. KalisvaartG
- 27W. KooistraF
- 29Iwan HenstraF
- 30J. ÇekaF
PEC Zwolle
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| T. Oosting | M | 78 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| T. Sommer | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| O. Aertssen | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| I. Cissoko | M | 60 | 6.8 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| S. Graves | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| S. van Hooijdonk | F | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| D. van der Haar | D | 3 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Viergever | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilles van der Wal | M | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Floranus | D | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Sørensen | F | 30 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| K. Kostons | F | 60 | 6.4 | — | — | 4 | 3 | — | 1/2 |
| J. Schendelaar | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Reiziger | M | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Mbayo | M | 78 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| D. Verduin | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Velthuis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Velanas | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jadiel Pereira da Gama | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Bürger | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fichtinger | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. de Graaff | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cambuur
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Binder | F | 44 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| T. Jansen | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Baouf | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. van Duijl | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Mulders | D | 11 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ethan Apkakou | M | 46 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| N. Souren | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Costarelli | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. Bouah | D | 74 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| J. Amofa | D | 5 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Kvam | M | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| S. Bouhoudane | F | 23 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| R. El Arguioui | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4/5 |
| J. Çeka | F | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| I. Hamache | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| M. Maertens | F | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| L. Plogmann | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Kooistra | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iwan Henstra | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jetten | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kalisvaart | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Vink | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Berkhout | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Cambuur to win against PEC Zwolle.
- What score did Fipster predict for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
- Fipster predicted a final score of PEC Zwolle 1–2 Cambuur.
- What were the win probabilities for PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur?
- Fipster's model gave PEC Zwolle a 23% chance of winning, Cambuur a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 54% confidence — a medium-confidence call.