Parma vs Bologna

Serie AMatchweek 11
Ref: Luca ZufferliStadio Ennio Tardini, Parma · 22,885 cap
Fipster Pick
Away Winhigh

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Parma and Bologna face off in a Serie A regular season match where Bologna's superior form and attacking prowess set the stage for a closely contested encounter.

FıpsterPredicted Scoreline
Pre-Match
1–2
Half-time0–1
Bologna Win
HIGH
Confidence
Parma 9%Draw 10%Bologna 81%

The context

Bologna currently sit 9th in the league with 14 points from 10 games, while Parma struggle near the bottom in 18th place with just 5 points from 9 matches. Historically, Bologna have a slight edge in their head-to-head record, winning 6 of 19 meetings compared to Parma's 4, with 9 draws. Matches between these sides tend to be moderately high scoring, averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Match factors

Tactical Advantagehigh

Bologna's prolific striker form

Samuel Mbangula's 3 goals in 5 games and strong away scoring give Bologna a clear attacking edge

Statistical Edgehigh

Juan Miranda's creative influence

Miranda leads Bologna with 5 assists, well above league average for defenders, boosting attacking chances

Form Momentummedium

Simone Lontani's recent scoring surge

Lontani scored 2 goals in last 5 matches, including 2 away goals, showing good form despite Parma's struggles

Injury Impacthigh

Parma missing key assister Nesta Elphege

Elphege is out due to illness, removing a potential assist threat and weakening Parma's attack

Analysis

Bologna's attacking threat is led by Samuel Mbangula, who has netted 3 goals in 5 appearances, showing excellent form especially away from home. Juan Miranda's creativity from defence, with 5 assists this season, adds to Bologna's offensive options. Parma's Simone Lontani has been a bright spot with 2 goals in his last 5 games, but Parma's overall form and goal difference lag behind Bologna's. The absence of Parma's key assister Nesta Elphege due to illness further weakens their attacking potential. Bologna's ability to take an early lead, as suggested by the predicted halftime score of 0-1, could prove decisive.

Prediction

We expect Bologna to take the lead by halftime and maintain their advantage to win 2-1. Parma will likely respond with a goal but fall short of overturning Bologna's lead. The match is also predicted to see around four cards, indicating a competitive and possibly tense affair.

Key facts

  1. 1.Bologna rank 9th with 14 points; Parma 18th with 5 points.
  2. 2.Bologna lead head-to-head with 6 wins to Parma's 4 in 19 matches.
  3. 3.Head-to-head matches average 2.2 goals, with Bologna scoring more overall.
  4. 4.Bologna have a significantly better goal difference than Parma this season.
  5. 5.Simone Lontani scored 2 goals in last 5 matches for Parma.
  6. 6.Samuel Mbangula has 3 goals in 5 appearances for Bologna.
  7. 7.Juan Miranda leads Bologna with 5 assists this season.
  8. 8.Parma's Nesta Elphege is out due to illness, weakening their attack.

The verdict

Bologna's superior form, key attacking players, and Parma's injury setbacks point towards an away win. Expect a lively match with Bologna edging it 2-1 after taking an early lead.

Player Insights

Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists

Home — Parma

Simone Lontani

Simone Lontani

Attacker

Parma

Total Goals
2
League avg: 0.47
8 played
8 starts
359 mins
~45 mins/game
José Romero

José Romero

Attacker

Parma

Total Goals
2
League avg: 0.47
9 played
6 starts
428 mins
~48 mins/game

Away — Bologna

Total Goals
3
League avg: 0.47
5 played
1 starts
136 mins
~27 mins/game
Federico Bernardeschi

Federico Bernardeschi

Attacker

Bologna

Total Goals
3
League avg: 0.47
10 played
8 starts
693 mins
~69 mins/game

Prediction generated 2 Nov 2026, 21:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166

Prediction Q&A

Who does Fipster predict will win Parma vs Bologna?
Fipster's AI model predicts Bologna to win against Parma.
What is the predicted score for Parma vs Bologna?
Fipster predicts a final score of Parma 1–2 Bologna.
What are the win probabilities for Parma vs Bologna?
Fipster's model gives Parma a 9% chance of winning, Bologna a 81% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw.
How confident is Fipster in this prediction?
Fipster's model assigns this prediction 81% confidence — a high-confidence call.