Parma vs AS Roma
Match recap
AS Roma beat Parma 3–2 in their Serie A fixture. Gabriel Strefezza and Keita scored for Parma; Malen, Malen, and Rensch replied for AS Roma. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.71 for Parma versus 2.58 for AS Roma. Parma sit 13th in the Serie A table while AS Roma are 3rd.
Analysis
As Parma host AS Roma in this Serie A fixture, the stage is set for a closely fought encounter. Roma's recent form and attacking prowess suggest they will edge this one, but expect a tight game with limited goals.
Parma sit 12th with 42 points, struggling with injuries to key players like Mateo Pellegrino and Adrián Bernabé, which weakens their attack and midfield. Roma, placed 5th with 64 points, boast a superior goal difference and points per game, highlighting their stronger campaign.
Roma's top scorer D. Malen is in fine form, netting 11 goals in 14 games and scoring 4 in his last 5 matches, making him a constant threat. Parma's defensive frailties, compounded by injuries, give Roma the tactical advantage. Midfield control by Roma's Cristante and Koné should stifle Parma's creativity, while Roma's consistent scoring streak away from home adds to their edge.
Prediction
We predict a narrow 1-0 victory for AS Roma, with the only goal likely coming in the first half. The match is expected to be disciplined with around four cards shown. Roma's superior form and key player contributions make them the favourites to take all three points.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Roma's potent attack vs Parma's weakened defense
Roma's top scorer Malen is in strong form, while Parma has key defensive injuries, favoring Roma's attack.
Roma's superior scoring and assist rates
Roma averages 1.5 goals/game with 57% win rate vs Parma's 0.7 goals/game and 29% win rate, indicating offensive edge.
Roma's consistent scoring streak
Roma has scored in last 5 matches away, showing strong offensive momentum heading into this fixture.
Parma's multiple key absences
Parma missing top scorer Pellegrino and creative midfielder Bernabé weakens their attacking and midfield options significantly.
Roma's midfield control potential
Cristante and Koné provide strong passing and defensive coverage, likely to dominate midfield against Parma's injury-hit squad.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Roma's attacking quality and Parma's injury woes point towards a slim away win. Expect a tight contest decided by a single goal, with Roma maintaining their strong away record and Parma struggling to find the net.
- AS Roma have won 14 of 20 matches against Parma historically.
- Roma hold a +23 goal difference this season; Parma sit at -17.
- Roma average 1.83 points per game compared to Parma's 1.20.
- D. Malen leads Roma with 11 goals in 14 appearances, scoring 4 in last 5 games.
- Parma's top scorer Mateo Pellegrino is currently injured.
- Roma have scored in their last 5 away matches.
- Total cards expected around 4, indicating a fairly disciplined match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Parma
Away — AS Roma
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Malen
Assist: Dybala
Gabriel Strefezza
Assist: Nicolussi
Gabriel Strefezza
Yellow Card
Gabriel Strefezza
Hermoso
Soulé
Cristante
Troilo
Yellow Card
Del Prato
Valeri
Koné
Çelik
Britschgi
Yellow Card
Nicolussi
Elphege
Keita
Assist: Estévez
Penalty confirmed
Britschgi
Red Card
Britschgi
Yellow Card
Malen
Penalty
Rensch
Assist: Ghilardi
Match Statistics
Parma
3-5-2Starting XI
- 5L. ValentiD
- 7Gabriel StrefezzaF
- 14E. ValeriM
- 15E. Del PratoM
- 16M. KeitaM
- 23N. ElphegeF
- 24C. OrdoñezM
- 31Z. SuzukiG
- 37M. TroiloD
- 39A. CircatiD
- 41H. NicolussiM
Substitutes
- 3A. N'DiayeD
- 8N. EstévezM
- 9Mateo PellegrinoF
- 11P. AlmqvistF
- 17J. OndrejkaF
- 22O. SørensenM
- 27S. BritschgiD
- 29F. CarboniD
- 40E. CorviG
- 61D. DrobnicD
- 66F. RinaldiG
- 76D. MikołajewskiF
AS Roma
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4B. CristanteM
- 5E. NdickaD
- 14D. MalenF
- 17M. KonéM
- 18M. SouléF
- 19Z. ÇelikM
- 21P. DybalaF
- 22HermosoD
- 23G. ManciniD
- 43WesleyM
- 99M. SvilarG
Substitutes
- 2D. RenschD
- 3AngeliñoD
- 8N. El AynaouiM
- 12K. TsimikasD
- 20L. VenturinoF
- 24J. ZiółkowskiD
- 61N. PisilliM
- 70G. De MarziG
- 78R. VazF
- 87D. GhilardiD
- 95P. GolliniG
Parma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mandela Keita | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Strefezza | F | 53 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia | M | 79 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 4/4 |
| Emanuele Valeri | M | 74 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Enrico Delprato(C) | M | 74 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Ordoñez | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Nesta Elphege | F | 79 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Mariano Troilo | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lautaro Valenti | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zion Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alessandro Circati | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Oliver Sørensen | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edoardo Corvi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Ondrejka | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdoulaye Ndiaye | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filippo Rinaldi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Mikołajewski | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dominik Drobnic | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Estévez | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | 37 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Pontus Almqvist | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Carboni | D | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sascha Britschgi | D | 25 | 4.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
AS Roma
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen | F | 90 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 5 | 4 | — | 1/2 |
| Paulo Dybala | F | 90 | 8.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 6 | 1/3 |
| Wesley | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Zeki Çelik | M | 75 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bryan Cristante(C) | M | 59 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mile Svilar | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Hermoso | D | 53 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matías Soulé | F | 58 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Evan Ndicka | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Manu Koné | M | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gianluca Mancini | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Pierluigi Gollini | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kostas Tsimikas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Angeliño | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Ziółkowski | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robinio Vaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giorgio De Marzi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Devyne Rensch | D | 15 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Neil El Aynaoui | M | 31 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Daniele Ghilardi | D | 37 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Venturino | F | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Niccolò Pisilli | M | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |