Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes
PSG grind out narrow win over Troyes
A solitary Zabarnyi strike secures all three points for the Parisians.
Paris Saint Germain edged past Estac Troyes with a tight 1-0 victory thanks to I. Zabarnyi's first-half goal. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a more comfortable 3-0 scoreline, the actual result was a much closer affair, though the forecast for a home win was spot on.
Outcome probability
Paris Saint Germain, known as Les Parisiens, face Estac Troyes in a Ligue 1 clash where the home side's superior form and firepower make them overwhelming favourites.
Match factors
Hakimi's attacking runs create overloads
Achraf Hakimi's high goal and assist output from defense gives PSG a tactical edge in wide areas.
PSG's superior scoring form
PSG averages over 2 goals per game with consistent scoring streaks, outmatching Troyes' 0.78 goals per game.
Ferran Torres' consistent scoring
Torres has scored 3 goals this season with steady minutes and shot attempts, supporting PSG's predicted 3-0 win.
Troyes' limited attacking threat
Troyes' top scorer Nkada has only 1 goal this season, indicating limited offensive threat against PSG's defense.
Full squad availability boosts PSG's dominance
No confirmed injuries for PSG ensures full strength, enhancing their chances to dominate and score multiple goals.
The context
Currently sitting top of the league with 20 points from 9 games, Paris Saint Germain have been in fine form, boasting a +11 goal difference. In contrast, Estac Troyes occupy 16th place with just 8 points and a -9 goal difference, highlighting the gulf between the sides this season.
Key insights
- A
Achraf Hakimi Mouh
Paris Saint Germain
Hakimi's attacking runs create overloads, giving PSG a tactical edge in wide areas.
Ligue 1 26/273 goals and 2 assists this season, well above defender averages
Ferran Torres
Paris Saint Germain
Torres' consistent scoring supports PSG's predicted 3-0 win with steady minutes and shot attempts.
Ligue 1 26/273 goals in 9 appearances
Timothé Nkada
Estac Troyes
Nkada is Troyes' main scoring threat but with only 1 goal, indicating limited offensive threat against PSG.
Ligue 1 26/271 goal in 7 appearances
Analysis
Les Parisiens have been scoring at over two goals per game on average, with standout performances from Achraf Hakimi Mouh, who leads the team with 3 goals and 2 assists, and Ferran Torres, who has also netted 3 times. Troyes, meanwhile, have struggled offensively, with their main threat Timothé Nkada managing only a single goal this season. PSG's full squad availability and tactical edge, especially Hakimi's attacking runs from defence, suggest a dominant display is on the cards.
Key facts
- 1.Paris Saint Germain are 1st in the league with 20 points from 9 games.
- 2.Estac Troyes sit 16th with 8 points from 9 games.
- 3.PSG have a +11 goal difference compared to Troyes' -9.
- 4.PSG average 2.22 points per game; Troyes average 0.89.
- 5.Achraf Hakimi Mouh leads PSG with 3 goals and 2 assists this season.
- 6.Ferran Torres has scored 3 goals in 9 appearances for PSG.
- 7.Timothé Nkada is Troyes' top scorer with just 1 goal this season.
- 8.No confirmed injuries for PSG, ensuring full squad strength.
Prediction
We expect Paris Saint Germain to take a 1-0 lead into halftime before extending their advantage to a 3-0 victory by full time. The home side's attacking prowess and defensive solidity should keep Troyes at bay, with a total of around four cards likely to be shown in a competitive but controlled match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Paris Saint Germain
Away — Estac Troyes
The verdict
In summary, Paris Saint Germain's superior form, goal-scoring ability, and squad strength make them clear favourites to secure a comfortable 3-0 win over Estac Troyes. Expect Les Parisiens to assert their dominance early and maintain control throughout.
Prediction generated 2 Nov 2026, 06:05 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Zabarnyi
Yellow Card
Zabarnyi
Assist: Mayulu
Diawara
Ripart
Godts
Torres
Ifnaoui
Boura
Le Douaron
Yellow Card
Diop
Mille
Yellow Card
Mayulu
Ruiz
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | +12 | 23 |
| 2 |  Lille | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +7 | 21 |
| 16 |  Angers | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 17 |  Estac Troyes | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 8 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -13 | 2 |
Match Statistics
Paris Saint Germain
4-3-3Starting XI
- 6I. ZabarnyiD
- 8Fabián RuizM
- 9Ferran TorresF
- 14D. DouéF
- 17VitinhaM
- 21L. HernándezD
- 22M. GodtsF
- 24Senny MayuluM
- 33W. Zaïre-EmeryD
- 39M. SafonovG
- 51W. PachoD
Substitutes
- 4BeraldoD
- 12L. DigneD
- 16A. LongoniG
- 27Pedro FernándezM
- 30L. ChevalierG
- 42D. BolyD
- 47Quentin Ndjantou MbitchaF
- 87João NevesM
Estac Troyes
4-5-1Starting XI
- 2L. MaronnierD
- 4M. DiazD
- 6A. MonfrayD
- 7K. DiawaraM
- 8M. DiopM
- 10M. IfnaouiM
- 14I. BouraD
- 17A. MilleM
- 20R. RipartF
- 29D. KarimM
- 40H. KonatéG
Substitutes
- 5P. GozziD
- 9J. Le DouaronF
- 11I. GomisM
- 22H. PicardM
- 23T. NkadaF
- 26A. PhliponeauM
- 33P. BeachG
- 36I. SoukounaM
- 44Y. TitiD
Paris Saint Germain
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Zabarnyi | D | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| W. Zaïre-Emery | D | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Senny Mayulu | M | 86 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 86 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| L. Hernández | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Pacho | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitinha | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| M. Safonov | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beraldo | D | 4 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Fernández | M | 4 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Neves | M | 20 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Doué | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 4 | 2/4 |
| Quentin Ndjantou Mbitcha | F | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Godts | F | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Ferran Torres | F | 70 | 6.0 | — | — | 4 | 4 | — | — |
| A. Longoni | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Boly | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Chevalier | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Digne | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Estac Troyes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Konaté | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Karim | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| I. Boura | D | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Diaz | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Monfray | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mille | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| L. Maronnier | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Diop | M | 85 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Y. Titi | D | 17 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Nkada | F | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ifnaoui | M | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| I. Soukouna | M | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Picard | M | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| R. Ripart | F | 62 | 6.1 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Le Douaron | F | 28 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| K. Diawara | M | 62 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| P. Gozzi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Phliponeau | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Beach | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Gomis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Paris Saint Germain to win against Estac Troyes.
- What score did Fipster predict for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Paris Saint Germain 3–0 Estac Troyes.
- What were the win probabilities for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes?
- Fipster's model gave Paris Saint Germain a 95% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.