Germany vs Paraguay
Germany and Paraguay share the spoils
A stalemate in the World Cup leaves both sides with a point apiece.
The World Cup clash between Germany and Paraguay ended in a 1-1 draw, with neither side able to break the deadlock in regular time. The match was ultimately decided on penalties, highlighting the tight contest. This result defied Fipster's confident prediction of a 2-0 win for Germany, marking a notable upset against the forecast.
Analysis
Germany face Paraguay in the Round of 32 at the FIFA World Cup 2026, both teams eager to progress in this knockout phase. Germany, with a strong recent run and a squad packed with top European league talent, look poised to control the match.
Germany come into this fixture having topped their qualifying group with 15 points and a +13 goal difference, boasting 25 of 26 players in top-5 European leagues. Paraguay qualified directly as well, finishing sixth in their group with 28 points but with only 4 players in top-5 leagues. Germany have appeared in 20 World Cups, winning four times, while Paraguay have made 8 appearances, reaching the quarter-finals in 2010.
The calibre gap is stark: Germany's squad includes stars like Joshua Kimmich and Manuel Neuer from Bayern München, while Paraguay's top talents are fewer and less represented in elite leagues. Germany's recent form is excellent, with 2.333 points per game over the last year and a strong group stage showing at this tournament. Paraguay's form is moderate, averaging 1.6 points per game. This suggests Germany will dominate possession and chances, likely leading to a clean sheet and a comfortable win.
Prediction
We predict Germany to lead 1-0 at half-time and extend their advantage to 2-0 by full-time. The match should see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Germany's attacking depth and defensive solidity should see them through with confidence.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Germany's attacking depth vs Paraguay's defense
Germany's attackers and midfielders show superior scoring and assist rates, exploiting Paraguay's moderate defensive record.
Home form boosts Germany's scoring probability
Germany scores 4.5 goals per home game recently, with key players like Undav and Havertz excelling at home.
Undav's explosive recent form
Undav's 6 goals and 4 assists in last 3 games off the bench indicate strong momentum to impact this match.
Kimmich's dual role as defender and playmaker
Kimmich's high assist count and passing accuracy provide Germany with creative advantage from deep positions.
No significant injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring tactical plans can be executed without key absences.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Germany's superior squad quality, recent form, and World Cup pedigree make them clear favourites to advance past Paraguay. Expect a disciplined performance with goals from key players and a solid defensive display to secure a 2-0 victory.
- Germany have appeared in 20 World Cups, winning four times (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014).
- Paraguay have appeared in 8 World Cups, with their best finish being quarter-finals in 2010.
- Germany qualified directly, topping their group with 15 points and a +13 goal difference.
- Paraguay qualified directly, finishing sixth in their group with 28 points and a +4 goal difference.
- Germany's squad includes 25 of 26 players in top-5 European leagues.
- Paraguay's squad includes 4 of 26 players in top-5 European leagues.
- Germany's recent form shows 2.333 points per game over the last 12 months.
- Paraguay's recent form shows 1.6 points per game over the last 12 months.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Germany
Away — Paraguay
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Enciso
Assist: Galarza
Nmecha
Havertz
Assist: Wirtz
Ávalos
Enciso
Undav
Cubas
Yellow Card
Pavlović
Sané
Almirón
Bobadilla
Cáceres
Goal Disallowed - Foul
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Havertz
Yellow Card
Rüdiger
Wirtz
Musiala
Yellow Card
Galarza
Yellow Card
Havertz
Missed Penalty
Maurício
Penalty
Kimmich
Penalty
Alonso
Gómez
Penalty
Galarza
Penalty
Musiala
Penalty
Woltemade
Missed Penalty
Sanabria
Missed Penalty
Balbuena
Missed Penalty
Amiri
Penalty
Tah
Missed Penalty
Canale
Penalty
Match Statistics
Germany
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1M. NeuerG
- 2A. RüdigerD
- 4J. TahD
- 5A. PavlovićM
- 6J. KimmichD
- 7K. HavertzF
- 17F. WirtzM
- 18N. BrownD
- 19L. SanéM
- 23F. NmechaM
- 26D. UndavF
Substitutes
- 3W. AntonD
- 8L. GoretzkaM
- 9J. LewelingF
- 10J. MusialaM
- 11N. WoltemadeF
- 12O. BaumannG
- 13P. GroßM
- 14M. BeierF
- 16A. StillerM
- 20N. AmiriM
- 21A. NübelG
- 22D. RaumD
- 24M. ThiawD
- 25A. OuédraogoM
Paraguay
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4J. CáceresD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 10M. AlmirónM
- 12O. GillG
- 13J. CanaleD
- 14A. CubasM
- 15G. GómezD
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 19J. EncisoF
- 21G. ÁvalosF
- 23M. GalarzaM
Substitutes
- 1R. FernándezG
- 2G. VelázquezD
- 3O. AldereteD
- 5F. BalbuenaD
- 7R. SosaF
- 9A. SanabriaF
- 11MaurícioM
- 17A. RomeroM
- 18A. ArceF
- 20B. OjedaM
- 22G. OlveiraG
- 24G. CaballeroF
- 25I. PittaF
- 26A. MaidanaD
Germany
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Wirtz | M | 110 | 8.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4 | 2/5 |
| Kai Havertz | F | 120 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Joshua Kimmich(C) | D | 120 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Antonio Rüdiger | D | 110 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Tah | D | 120 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Nathaniel Brown | D | 120 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Manuel Neuer | G | 120 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felix Nmecha | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Aleksandar Pavlović | M | 79 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Deniz Undav | F | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Leroy Sané | M | 88 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/7 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| David Raum | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Oliver Baumann | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pascal Groß | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Nübel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamie Leweling | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Angelo Stiller | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maximilian Beier | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Assan Ouédraogo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Woltemade | F | 32 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Malick Thiaw | D | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nadiem Amiri | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jamal Musiala | M | 57 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 6/10 |
| Waldemar Anton | D | 41 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Leon Goretzka | M | 75 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Paraguay
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Gill | G | 120 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julio Enciso | F | 57 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| José Canale | D | 120 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Almirón | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 99 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matías Galarza | M | 120 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Juan Cáceres | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Gabriel Ávalos | F | 55 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrés Cubas | M | 120 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 120 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Junior Alonso | D | 119 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Roberto Fernández | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Romero | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Alderete | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gastón Olveira | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isidro Pitta | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Arce | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexandro Maidana | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio | M | 63 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Antonio Sanabria | F | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Velázquez | D | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Caballero | F | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Braian Ojeda | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |