Palmeiras vs Vitoria
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Vitoria 5–1 in their Serie A fixture. Murilo, Gómez, Maurício, Allan, and Sosa scored for Palmeiras; Dudu replied for Vitoria. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.01 for Palmeiras versus 0.80 for Vitoria. Palmeiras sit 1st in the Serie A table while Vitoria are 14th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Palmeiras win
Actual
5–1
Outcome probability
Palmeiras and Vitoria face off in the second round of the regular season, with Palmeiras tipped to assert their dominance. The home side's attacking strength and solid league position set the stage for a commanding performance.
Match factors
Palmeiras' attacking midfield creativity
Andreas Pereira's 10 assists and key playmaking role give Palmeiras a creative edge
J. López's goal-scoring form at home
J. López has 3 goals in last 10 home games, above league average for attackers
Vitoria's consistent scoring streak
Vitoria has scored in last 5 matches, showing attacking resilience despite lower league rank
Vitoria missing key midfielder Gabriel Baralhas
Baralhas is out with broken leg, weakening Vitoria's midfield creativity and assist potential
The context
Palmeiras currently sit 2nd in the league with 60 points from 29 games, boasting a goal difference of +27. Vitoria, on the other hand, are placed 12th with 36 points and a -10 goal difference. Historically, Palmeiras have the upper hand, winning 10 of their 15 head-to-head encounters against Vitoria.
Key insights
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Andreas Pereira's 10 assists and key playmaking role give Palmeiras a creative edge.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 28 apps, 0.36 assists/game
J. López
Palmeiras
J. López has 3 goals in last 10 home games, above league average for attackers, making him a potent threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 26 apps, 0.35 goals/game
Erick
Vitoria
Erick is Vitoria's top assister with 6 assists and has been in good form recently, providing key creativity.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 28 apps, 0.21 assists/game
Analysis
Palmeiras' attacking midfield creativity, led by Andreas Pereira with 10 assists, provides a significant advantage. J. López, the team's top scorer with 9 goals, has been particularly effective at home, netting 3 times in his last 10 home games. Vitoria have shown some resilience by scoring in their last five matches, but they face a challenge without key midfielder Gabriel Baralhas, who is out with a broken leg. Palmeiras' superior goal difference and points-per-game average underline their expected control of the match.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras are 2nd in the league with 60 points from 29 games.
- 2.Vitoria are 12th with 36 points from 29 games.
- 3.Palmeiras have a +27 goal difference; Vitoria have -10.
- 4.Palmeiras have won 10 of 15 head-to-head matches against Vitoria.
- 5.J. López is Palmeiras' top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 6.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists.
- 7.Vitoria's key midfielder Gabriel Baralhas is out with a broken leg.
- 8.Vitoria have scored in their last 5 matches.
Prediction
The prediction is a 3-0 win for Palmeiras, reflecting their strong home form and offensive capabilities. While the confidence in this exact scoreline is cautious, the likelihood of a home victory is very high. Palmeiras are expected to dominate proceedings and secure a comfortable win.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Palmeiras
Away — Vitoria
No standout top scorers flagged for Vitoria
The verdict
In summary, Palmeiras' combination of attacking flair and solid league standing makes them favourites to claim all three points. Vitoria will need to overcome significant challenges to prevent a clear home win. Expect Palmeiras to deliver a performance befitting their status in this fixture.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:25 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Murilo
Assist: Andreas Pereira
Nathan
Yellow Card
Gómez
Assist: Murilo
Allan
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Maurício
Assist: Piquerez
Nathan
Riccieli
Ramon
Yellow Card
Zé Marcos
Yellow Card
Dudu
Assist: Fabrício
Allan
Assist: Andreas Pereira
Erick
Zé Marcos
Allan
Fabrício
Sosa
Assist: Andreas Pereira
Maurício
Andreas Pereira
Vitor Roque
López
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
Match Statistics
Palmeiras
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 12KhellvenD
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 4A. GiayD
- 6JeftéD
- 11Bruno RodriguesF
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 19R. SosaF
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
Vitoria
5-4-1Starting XI
- 3Zé MarcosD
- 5RiccieliD
- 13RamonD
- 17Aitor CantalapiedraM
- 22Gabriel VasconcelosG
- 23FabrícioF
- 33ErickM
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 45NathanD
- 77NerisD
- 98CaíqueM
Substitutes
- 4CamutangaD
- 8RonaldM
- 10MatheuzinhoM
- 11OsvaldoF
- 21DuduM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 36Luan CândidoD
- 62PabloM
- 71Yuri SenaG
- 95MateusinhoD
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Murilo | D | 90 | 9.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 85 | 8.7 | — | 3 | — | — | 5 | 1/1 |
| Allan | M | 72 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/4 |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Piquerez | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Mauricio | M | 85 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Vitor Roque | F | 85 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| José López | F | 85 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Khellven | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Riquelme Fillipi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Pacheco | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Larson | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefté | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 18 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrício Santos | F | 78 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Erick | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Zé Marcos | D | 69 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riccieli | D | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Neris | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Vasconcelos | G | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ramon | D | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camutanga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osvaldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Miguel | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Santos | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Sena | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | M | 45 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lawan | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateusinho | D | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Vitoria.
- What score did Fipster predict for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Palmeiras 3–0 Vitoria.
- What were the win probabilities for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's model gave Palmeiras a 35% chance of winning, Vitoria a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.