Palmeiras vs Mirassol
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Mirassol 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. López scored for Palmeiras. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.52 for Palmeiras versus 0.44 for Mirassol. Palmeiras sit 1st in the Serie A table while Mirassol are 15th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Palmeiras win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
Palmeiras face Mirassol in the sixth round of the regular season, with the home side looking to extend their strong league position and continue their winning ways.
Match factors
Palmeiras' attacking midfield dominance
Andreas Pereira's creative playmaking and high assist tally gives Palmeiras a tactical edge in breaking down Mirassol's defense
Superior scoring form of Palmeiras forwards
José López leads with 9 goals and strong home form, boosting Palmeiras' likelihood to score multiple goals
Mirassol's key players showing recent attacking contributions
Eduardo and Igor Formiga have contributed goals and assists recently, but overall team form lags behind Palmeiras
Mirassol missing key midfielder José Aldo
José Aldo's absence weakens Mirassol's midfield creativity and goal threat, reducing their offensive potential
The context
Palmeiras currently sit second in the league with 60 points from 29 games, demonstrating consistent form. Mirassol, on the other hand, are placed 15th with 33 points, struggling to keep pace with the top teams. Historically, Palmeiras have the upper hand, winning six of their nine encounters against Mirassol.
Key insights
José López
Palmeiras
Top scorer for Palmeiras with 9 goals, showing strong home scoring form with 3 goals in last 5 home games.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 26 appearances, 0.35 goals/game
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Creative midfielder leading the team with 10 assists, providing key passes and linking play effectively.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 28 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
- E
Eduardo
Mirassol
Leading scorer for Mirassol with 6 goals, contributing recently with 2 goals in last 5 games.
Serie A 26/276 goals in current season
Igor Formiga
Mirassol
Top assist provider for Mirassol with 5 assists, important for attacking build-up from defense.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 26 appearances, 0.19 assists/game
Analysis
Palmeiras boast a potent attack led by José López, who has netted nine goals this season and thrives on home turf. Midfielder Andreas Pereira's creativity, with ten assists, provides a tactical edge in breaking down Mirassol's defence. Mirassol's key players like Eduardo and Igor Formiga have contributed offensively but lack the overall team form to challenge Palmeiras effectively. The absence of Mirassol's midfielder José Aldo further weakens their midfield creativity, tipping the scales firmly in Palmeiras' favour.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras have won 6 of 9 meetings against Mirassol.
- 2.Palmeiras are 2nd in the league with 60 points from 29 games.
- 3.Mirassol are 15th with 33 points from 29 games.
- 4.José López is Palmeiras' top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 5.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists.
- 6.Mirassol's José Aldo is out, weakening their midfield.
- 7.Palmeiras have a 90% probability of winning this match.
- 8.3-0 is the most likely final scoreline according to predictions.
Prediction
All signs point to a comfortable home win for Palmeiras, with a 3-0 scoreline the most likely outcome. Their attacking dominance and superior league standing suggest they will control the match and secure a decisive victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Palmeiras
Away — Mirassol
No standout top scorers flagged for Mirassol
The verdict
Expect Palmeiras to continue their strong season with a commanding win over Mirassol. Their blend of attacking talent and solid form should see them comfortably through this fixture.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:58 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Neto Moura
Yellow Card
López
Assist: Maurício
Reinaldo
Yellow Card
Unknown
Reinaldo
Unknown
Andreas Pereira
Carlos Miguel
Yellow Card
Arthur
Igor Formiga
Yellow Card
Arias
André Luís
Shaylon
Maurício
Freitas
Negueba
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
Match Statistics
Palmeiras
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 4A. GiayD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 11J. AriasM
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
- 56ArthurD
Substitutes
- 6JeftéD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 12KhellvenD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 19R. SosaF
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 24AranhaG
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
Mirassol
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Willian MachadoD
- 6ReinaldoD
- 7ShaylonM
- 11NeguebaM
- 21José AldoM
- 22WalterG
- 32Igor FormigaD
- 34João VictorD
- 99André LuísF
Substitutes
- 2Lucas OliveiraD
- 8DenilsonM
- 9Nathan FogaçaF
- 12Victor LuísD
- 17Everton GaldinoF
- 18Gabriel PiresD
- 20Daniel BorgesD
- 23Alex MuralhaG
- 27A. GaleanoF
- 29Tiquinho SoaresF
- 77AlessonF
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 5/6 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 70 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 70 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Agustín Giay | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| José López | F | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 58 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 81 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Mauricio | M | 80 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Aranha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefté | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Pacheco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Piquerez | D | 20 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 32 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Larson | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Mirassol
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willian Machado | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| José Aldo | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/4 |
| João Victor | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Luis | F | 73 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto Moura | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Reinaldo(C) | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Walter | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shaylon | M | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Negueba | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/5 |
| Igor Formiga | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lucas Oliveira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Lara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Borges | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Muralha | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Galeano | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everton Galdino | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Luis | D | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Gabriel Pires | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Alesson | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiquinho Soares | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Nathan Fogaça | F | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Mirassol.
- What score did Fipster predict for Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Palmeiras 3–0 Mirassol.
- What were the win probabilities for Palmeiras vs Mirassol?
- Fipster's model gave Palmeiras a 95% chance of winning, Mirassol a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.