Palmeiras vs Gremio
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Gremio 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Freitas and Freitas scored for Palmeiras; Carlos Vinícius replied for Gremio. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.64 for Palmeiras versus 0.59 for Gremio. Palmeiras sit 1st in the Serie A table while Gremio are 18th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Palmeiras win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Palmeiras and Gremio face off in a league encounter where the home side's recent performances and statistical advantages suggest a dominant display is on the cards.
Match factors
Palmeiras' midfield dominance
Palmeiras' midfielders like Andreas Pereira and Marlon Freitas control possession and create chances, outmatching Gremio's midfield
José López's scoring threat
López's 9 goals this season and strong home scoring form make him the primary goal threat for Palmeiras
Palmeiras' strong home form
Palmeiras have a 60% win rate and average 1.87 goals per home game, supporting a dominant performance
Full squad availability for Palmeiras
No confirmed injuries for Palmeiras ensures full strength, boosting their chances against Gremio
Gremio's defensive vulnerabilities
Gremio concedes 1.33 goals per game and has a low clean sheet percentage, likely to struggle against Palmeiras' attack
The context
This match is part of the regular season's ninth round, with Palmeiras sitting comfortably near the top of the table, while Gremio struggles in the lower reaches. The fixture offers Palmeiras a chance to extend their lead and showcase their attacking strength.
Key insights
José López
Palmeiras
López's 9 goals this season and strong home scoring rate make him the primary goal threat for Palmeiras.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 27 apps, 0.33 avg per game; 0.6 goals per game in last 10 home matches
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Pereira's 10 assists and role as set-piece specialist provide Palmeiras with creative dominance in midfield.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 29 apps, 0.34 avg per game
Analysis
Palmeiras have demonstrated clear superiority over Gremio in their head-to-head meetings, winning 12 out of 20 encounters. Currently second in the league with 63 points, Palmeiras boast a +30 goal difference, starkly contrasting with Gremio's -8. Their midfield, led by creative forces like Andreas Pereira, controls possession effectively, setting up chances for prolific scorers such as José López, who has netted 9 goals this season with a strong home scoring record. Gremio's defensive vulnerabilities, conceding over a goal per game, are likely to be exploited thoroughly.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras have won 12 of 20 head-to-head matches against Gremio.
- 2.Palmeiras are 2nd in the league with 63 points from 30 games.
- 3.Palmeiras have a +30 goal difference; Gremio has -8 this season.
- 4.José López has scored 9 goals this season, with strong home form.
- 5.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season.
- 6.Gremio concedes an average of 1.33 goals per game.
- 7.Palmeiras have a 60% win rate at home this season.
- 8.No confirmed injuries for Palmeiras, ensuring full squad strength.
Prediction
Expect Palmeiras to assert their dominance early, building a 2-0 lead by halftime and extending it to a 4-0 victory by full time. The home side's attacking efficiency and solid squad availability underpin this forecast, while Gremio's struggles suggest they will find it tough to respond.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Palmeiras
Away — Gremio
The verdict
In summary, Palmeiras' blend of form, tactical control, and individual talent points to a comprehensive home win. Gremio will need a miracle to avoid a heavy defeat in this one.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:39 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pedro Gabriel
Yellow Card
Freitas
Assist: Andreas Pereira
Monsalve
Tetê
Noriega
Carlos Vinícius
Assist: Martins
Jefté
Maurício
López
Freitas
Martins
Yellow Card
Enamorado
Nardoni
Arias
Allan
Dodi
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Palmeiras
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 4A. GiayD
- 6JeftéD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 11J. AriasM
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
Substitutes
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 12KhellvenD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 15G. GómezD
- 19R. SosaF
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 45Erick MachadoM
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 56ArthurD
Gremio
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 5J. NardoniM
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónD
- 11M. MonsalveM
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 21TetêM
- 44VieryD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 99J. EnamoradoM
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 39TiagoM
- 47RogerM
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 65Riquelme FreitasM
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 9.0 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| José López | F | 72 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 4/5 |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jhon Arias | M | 84 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Allan | M | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3/8 |
| Murilo(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Mauricio | M | 71 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Jefté | D | 67 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luis Pacheco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Gómez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Belé | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Larson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/6 |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vinícius(C) | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 1/1 |
| Viery | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Tetê | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| José Enamorado | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tiaguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Freitas | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roger | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Kannemann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Zortéa | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Palmeiras vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Palmeiras 4–0 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Palmeiras vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Palmeiras a 95% chance of winning, Gremio a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.