Palmeiras vs Fluminense
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Fluminense 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Vitor Roque and Allan scored for Palmeiras; Acosta replied for Fluminense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.28 for Palmeiras versus 1.18 for Fluminense. Palmeiras sit 1st in the Serie A table while Fluminense are 5th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Palmeiras win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Palmeiras and Fluminense face off in a league stage fixture where Palmeiras are poised to assert their dominance. With a strong attacking midfield and solid defence, Palmeiras look set to control the game from start to finish.
Match factors
Palmeiras' attacking midfield dominance
Palmeiras' midfielders López and Maurício have strong scoring form, likely to exploit Fluminense's defense.
Andreas Pereira's creative influence
Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists, key in creating chances and set-piece delivery.
Fluminense's scoring streak
Fluminense has scored in last 5 matches, showing offensive consistency despite predicted loss.
Fluminense missing key striker John Kennedy
Kennedy is out injured, reducing Fluminense's top scoring threat and attacking options.
Palmeiras' defensive solidity
Palmeiras' defense, led by Gómez and Piquerez, has strong clean sheet record, likely to contain Fluminense attack.
The context
This match is part of the regular season's fourth round in the league stage. Palmeiras currently hold a strong position in the league standings, boasting a better goal difference than Fluminense. Historically, Palmeiras have had the upper hand in head-to-head encounters, which adds an extra edge to this fixture.
Key insights
José López
Palmeiras
Top scorer for Palmeiras with 9 goals, showing strong home form with 3 goals in last 10 home games, making him a key attacking threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 26 appearances, 0.35 goals/game
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season, crucial for creating chances and set-piece delivery, boosting the team's attacking options.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 28 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
Maurício
Palmeiras
Scored 7 goals this season, with good recent away form, providing vital link between midfield and attack.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 24 appearances, 0.29 goals/game
- J
John Kennedy
Fluminense
Out injured, reducing Fluminense's attacking options and top scoring threat.
- G
Gómez and Piquerez
Palmeiras
Strong defensive partnership contributing to a solid clean sheet record, likely to contain Fluminense's attack.
Analysis
Palmeiras' attacking midfield duo, José López and Maurício, have been in fine form this season, contributing significantly to the team's goal tally. López, the top scorer with 9 goals, has been particularly effective at home, while Maurício adds vital support from midfield. Andreas Pereira's creativity, leading the team with 10 assists, is expected to unlock Fluminense's defence. On the other side, Fluminense's attack is missing key striker John Kennedy due to injury, which weakens their offensive threat. Palmeiras' defence, anchored by Gómez and Piquerez, has maintained a strong clean sheet record, likely to frustrate Fluminense's forwards.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras rank 2nd in the league with 60 points from 29 games.
- 2.Palmeiras have a superior goal difference of +15 compared to Fluminense.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras have won 10, Fluminense 6, with 4 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 1.9 goals per game.
- 5.José López is Palmeiras' top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 6.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season.
- 7.Fluminense's key striker John Kennedy is out injured.
- 8.Palmeiras' defence has a strong clean sheet record this season.
Prediction
We predict Palmeiras will take an early lead, reflected in a 2-0 halftime score, and continue their dominance to finish the match 3-0. The game is expected to feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards shown. Palmeiras' home advantage and superior form make them the clear favourites to secure all three points.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Palmeiras
Away — Fluminense
No standout top scorers flagged for Fluminense
The verdict
In summary, Palmeiras' combination of attacking firepower and defensive resilience should see them comfortably overcome Fluminense. Fluminense's injury woes and less potent attack suggest they will struggle to find the net, making a Palmeiras clean sheet and 3-0 victory the most likely outcome.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:56 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fábio
Yellow Card
Vitor Roque
Penalty
Allan
Assist: López
Bernal
Freytes
Yellow Card
Martinelli
Yellow Card
Khellven
Yellow Card
Acosta
Acosta
López
Khellven
Martinelli
Serna
Arias
Yellow Card
Ignacio
Yellow Card
Andreas Pereira
Vitor Roque
PH Ganso
Allan
Freitas
Yellow Card
Red Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
Match Statistics
Palmeiras
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 12KhellvenD
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezM
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 4A. GiayD
- 6JeftéD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 11J. AriasM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 19R. SosaF
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 56ArthurD
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 4IgnacioD
- 5F. BernalM
- 8MartinelliM
- 10PH GansoF
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 22J. FreytesD
- 23GugaD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 90K. SernaM
Substitutes
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 7Y. SoteldoF
- 9John KennedyF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 30S. MorenoF
- 35HérculesM
- 39Keven SamuelF
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Roque | F | 70 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Allan | M | 87 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Joaquín Piquerez | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| José López | M | 59 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Khellven | D | 59 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Arthur Gabriel | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Larson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Pacheco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefté | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jhon Arias | M | 31 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Agustín Giay | D | 31 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 20 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano Acosta | M | 45 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ganso | F | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Juan Freytes | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 25 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| Jefferson Savarino | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ignácio | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fábio(C) | G | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Keven Samuel | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Reis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jemmes | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | 65 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/4 |
| John Kennedy | F | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Moreno | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Fluminense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Palmeiras 3–0 Fluminense.
- What were the win probabilities for Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
- Fipster's model gave Palmeiras a 85% chance of winning, Fluminense a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.