Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Corinthians 4–1 in their Serie A fixture. Barboza, Giay, Bidu, Giay, and Paulinho scored for Palmeiras; Gustavo Henrique replied for Corinthians. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.68 for Palmeiras versus 0.67 for Corinthians. Palmeiras sit 2nd in the Serie A table while Corinthians are 16th.
Outcome probability
The upcoming clash between Palmeiras and Corinthians promises a clear-cut contest, with Palmeiras expected to assert their dominance. Both teams have had contrasting fortunes this season, setting the stage for a one-sided affair.
Match factors
Palmeiras' attacking trio in form
José López and Vitor Roque lead Palmeiras' attack with strong home scoring records, supported by creative midfielders.
Andreas Pereira's creative dominance
Pereira's 10 assists this season make him a key playmaker, well above league average for midfielders.
Palmeiras' strong home form
Palmeiras has scored in 4 of last 5 home games and kept multiple clean sheets, boosting confidence.
Corinthians missing key attackers
Corinthians have no confirmed injuries but have struggled offensively, impacting goal threat.
Defensive leadership of Gustavo Gómez
Gómez's defensive and goal contributions provide Palmeiras stability and threat on set pieces.
The context
This match is part of the Regular Season - 30 in the league, where Palmeiras currently sit comfortably in 2nd place with 57 points, while Corinthians find themselves down in 16th with 32 points. The league table disparity highlights the differing trajectories of these two sides.
Key insights
José López
Palmeiras
Top scorer for Palmeiras with 7 goals, showing strong home scoring form and high involvement in goals.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 25 apps, 3 goals in last 10 home games
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Creative hub with 10 assists, well above league average for midfielders, key to Palmeiras' attacking play.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 26 apps, 0.38 avg per game
Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
Efficient scorer with 5 goals, strong home scoring rate, likely to impact the game significantly.
Serie A 26/275 goals in 16 apps, 0.31 avg per game
Analysis
Palmeiras boast a significantly better goal difference (+26) compared to Corinthians' -4, reflecting their stronger offensive and defensive performances. Historically, Palmeiras have edged this fixture with 7 wins out of 20 meetings, while Corinthians have 5 wins and 8 draws. Palmeiras' attacking trio, led by José López and Vitor Roque, have been in fine form at home, with López netting 7 goals this season and Roque contributing 5. Midfielder Andreas Pereira's creative prowess, with 10 assists, further bolsters Palmeiras' attacking threat. Corinthians, meanwhile, have struggled offensively and lack key attacking firepower, which could be decisive.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras rank 2nd with 57 points from 28 games (W16 D9 L3).
- 2.Corinthians are 16th with 32 points from 29 games (W8 D8 L13).
- 3.Palmeiras have a +26 goal difference; Corinthians have -4.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras have 7 wins, Corinthians 5, with 8 draws.
- 5.José López is Palmeiras' top scorer with 7 goals this season.
- 6.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season.
- 7.Palmeiras have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games and kept multiple clean sheets.
Prediction
The forecast is a Palmeiras home win with a halftime lead of 1-0, extending to a 3-0 victory by fulltime. The match is also expected to feature around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter. Palmeiras' superior form and tactical advantages make this outcome the most probable.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Palmeiras
Away — Corinthians
No standout top scorers flagged for Corinthians
The verdict
In summary, Palmeiras are well placed to secure a comfortable win against Corinthians, leveraging their strong league standing, goal difference, and attacking talent. Corinthians will need to tighten up defensively and find a spark to challenge this prediction, but the signs point to a straightforward home victory.
Prediction generated 9 Oct 2026, 02:25 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Arias
Yellow Card
Raniele
Yellow Card
Barboza
Assist: Evangelista
Giay
Assist: Arias
Bidu (OG)
Depay
Yellow Card
Giay
Yellow Card
Giay
Breno
Carrillo
Gabriel Paulista
Yellow Card
Vitinho
Yellow Card
Andre
Evangelista
López
Vitor Roque
Yuri Alberto
Gómez
Yellow Card
Sosa
Paulinho
Missed Penalty
Gómez
Raniele
Gustavo Henrique
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | +32 | 66 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 15 |  Vasco DA Gama | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | -7 | 35 |
| 16 |  Corinthians | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | -7 | 33 |
| 17 |  Internacional | 31 | 7 | 11 | 13 | -7 | 32 |
Match Statistics
Palmeiras
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 4A. GiayM
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 11J. AriasM
- 15G. GómezD
- 22J. PiquerezM
- 26MuriloD
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 42J. LópezM
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 10PaulinhoF
- 12KhellvenD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 19R. SosaF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 56ArthurD
Corinthians
4-1-3-2Starting XI
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 10M. DepayF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 14RanieleM
- 19A. CarrilloM
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 49AndreM
Substitutes
- 4João PedroD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 26F. AngileriD
- 29AllanM
- 35CharlesM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
- 55I. MachadoD
- 56Guilherme InácioF
- 61DieguinhoM
- 77J. LingardM
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Giay | M | 89 | 9.5 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| A. Barboza | D | 89 | 9.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| J. Arias | M | 89 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 69 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| G. Gómez | D | 83 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Murilo | D | 89 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | 6 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Piquerez | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| E. Martínez | M | 20 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maurício | M | 20 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. López | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Paulinho | F | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Sosa | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Roque | F | 69 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Larson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Felipe | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Souza | G | 89 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheuzinho | D | 89 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | 4 | 1/3 |
| Pedro Raul | F | 20 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Vitinho | F | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Yuri Alberto | F | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| A. Carrillo | M | 57 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gustavo Henrique | D | 89 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 32 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| M. Depay | F | 89 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Breno | M | 57 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Dieguinho | M | 6 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ramalho | D | 20 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andre | M | 69 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Raniele | M | 83 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 89 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 89 | 4.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Kauê Camargo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Inácio | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Machado | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Lingard | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Angileri | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charles | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Palmeiras 3–0 Corinthians.
- What were the win probabilities for Palmeiras vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's model gave Palmeiras a 92% chance of winning, Corinthians a 4% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 92% confidence — a high-confidence call.