Palmeiras vs Botafogo
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Botafogo 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Allan and Arias scored for Palmeiras; Santos replied for Botafogo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.71 for Palmeiras versus 0.60 for Botafogo. Palmeiras sit 1st in the Serie A table while Botafogo are 11th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Palmeiras win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Palmeiras and Botafogo face off in a league encounter where Palmeiras' superior form and attacking prowess make them clear favourites.
Match factors
Palmeiras' attacking midfield dominance
Andreas Pereira's 10 assists and key playmaking role give Palmeiras a creative edge
José López's strong home scoring form
López has 3 goals in last 10 home games, above league average for attackers
Danilo Santos' recent scoring form
Danilo scored 2 goals in last 5 matches, showing good attacking momentum
Palmeiras missing Jefté and Paulinho
Defender Jefté and attacker Paulinho are confirmed out, reducing depth
Joaquín Piquerez's attacking threat from defense
Piquerez's 4 assists and crossing ability add offensive width for Palmeiras
The context
This match is part of the regular season's seventh round in the league. Palmeiras currently sit second in the standings with a strong points tally, while Botafogo trail behind with less impressive form and goal difference.
Key insights
José López
Palmeiras
Top scorer with 9 goals and strong home form, scoring 3 in last 10 home games, making him a key threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 26 appearances, 0.35 goals/game
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Creative hub with 10 assists this season, providing Palmeiras with attacking opportunities and playmaking.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 28 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Botafogo's top scorer with 9 goals, showing good recent form with 2 goals in last 5 matches.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 22 appearances, 0.41 goals/game
- J
Joaquín Piquerez Moreira
Palmeiras
Attacking fullback with 4 assists, adding offensive width and crossing ability to Palmeiras' attack.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 14 appearances, 0.29 assists/game
Analysis
Palmeiras boast a significant edge in this fixture, reflected in their strong home record and a points-per-game average well above Botafogo's. Their attacking midfield, led by Andreas Pereira with 10 assists, provides creative firepower, while José López's nine goals, including a solid home scoring record, underline their threat upfront. Botafogo's Danilo Santos offers some attacking promise but is unlikely to turn the tide against Palmeiras' defensive stability and offensive depth.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras are ranked 2nd in the league with 60 points from 29 games.
- 2.Palmeiras have a goal difference of +27, significantly better than Botafogo's.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras have won 10, Botafogo 5, with 5 draws.
- 4.Palmeiras average 2.07 points per game compared to Botafogo's 1.21.
- 5.José López is Palmeiras' top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 6.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists, highlighting their creative strength.
- 7.Botafogo's Danilo Santos is their top scorer with 9 goals this season.
Prediction
Expect Palmeiras to assert control early, likely leading 2-0 by halftime and extending their advantage to a 3-0 victory by full time. The match should feature a moderate number of cards, around four, reflecting a competitive but disciplined contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Palmeiras
Away — Botafogo
The verdict
Palmeiras' combination of home form, attacking creativity, and goal-scoring reliability makes them the clear pick for a comfortable win over Botafogo in this league fixture.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:02 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Allan
Assist: Andreas Pereira
Medina
Red Card
Júnior Santos
Arias
Assist: Andreas Pereira
Barrera
Santos
Ferraresi
Bartolomeu Jacinto Quissanga
Maurício
López
Andreas Pereira
Matheus Martins
Arias
Allan
Sosa
Yellow Card
Correa
Yellow Card
Villalba
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
Match Statistics
Palmeiras
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 11J. AriasM
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 18MaurícioM
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
- 56ArthurD
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 6JeftéD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 12KhellvenD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 19R. SosaF
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 32E. MartínezM
- 48LarsonM
Botafogo
4-1-3-2Starting XI
- 1RaulG
- 2VitinhoD
- 5N. FerraresiD
- 6C. MedinaM
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10Álvaro MontoroM
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 13Alex TellesD
- 14J. BarreraM
- 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
- 17Júnior SantosF
Substitutes
- 4M. PonteD
- 7ArturF
- 16Nathan FernandesF
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 21MarçalD
- 23S. RodríguezM
- 24Léo LinckG
- 30J. CorreaF
- 34G. JustinoM
- 48Arthur NovaesM
- 77L. VillalbaF
- 88EdenílsonM
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhon Arias | M | 85 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3/7 |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 72 | 7.3 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| José López | F | 72 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2/3 |
| Agustín Giay | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio | M | 71 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Allan | M | 85 | 6.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 2/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Khellven | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Piquerez | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefté | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Roque | F | 18 | 7.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Larson | M | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo | M | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Raúl | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nahuel Ferraresi | D | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Vitinho | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Álvaro Montoro | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | F | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Júnior Santos | F | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Bastos | D | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alex Telles(C) | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Medina | M | 45 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Arthur Novaes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Linck | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nathan Fernandes | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marçal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Rodríguez | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| Gabriel Justino | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joaquín Correa | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Artur | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Lucas Villalba | F | 33 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Botafogo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Palmeiras 3–0 Botafogo.
- What were the win probabilities for Palmeiras vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's model gave Palmeiras a 95% chance of winning, Botafogo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.