Palmeiras vs Bahia
Palmeiras edge Bahia with early strike
J. López's seventh-minute goal secures a narrow win for Palmeiras.
Palmeiras claimed a tight 1-0 victory over Bahia in Serie A thanks to an early goal from J. López. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a more comfortable 3-1 win, the actual scoreline was a slender margin, though the predicted home win was spot on.
Outcome probability
Palmeiras and Bahia face off in a Regular Season - 29 fixture where Palmeiras' superior form and goal difference suggest they will dominate proceedings.
Match factors
Palmeiras' attacking trio in strong form
José López and Vitor Roque lead Palmeiras' attack with solid recent goal form, supported by Maurício's midfield threat
Andreas Pereira's creative dominance
Pereira's 10 assists this season highlight his key role in Palmeiras' chance creation and set-piece delivery
Luciano Juba's unusual scoring threat from defense
Bahia's defender Luciano Juba has 9 goals this season, providing an additional scoring outlet especially on set pieces
Bahia's consistent scoring streak
Bahia has scored in their last 5 matches, showing attacking resilience despite being underdogs
Full squad availability for Palmeiras and Bahia
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, allowing full strength lineups and tactical consistency
The context
Palmeiras sit 2nd in the league with 57 points from 28 games, while Bahia are 5th with 46 points from 27 games. Historically, Palmeiras have won half of their 20 meetings against Bahia, indicating a clear edge.
Key insights
José López
Palmeiras
Top scorer with 7 goals this season and strong home scoring form, making him a key attacking threat.
Serie A 26/277 goals in 24 apps, 0.29 avg per game
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Creative hub with 10 assists this season, crucial for chance creation and set-pieces.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 25 apps, 0.40 avg per game
Luciano Juba
Bahia
Unusual scoring threat from defence with 9 goals, providing Bahia with an extra attacking outlet.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 apps, 0.39 avg per game
Analysis
Palmeiras boast a +26 goal difference compared to Bahia's +9, highlighting their stronger attack and defence. Key players like José López, with 7 goals this season and strong home form, and creative midfielder Andreas Pereira, who leads with 10 assists, provide Palmeiras with a potent offensive threat. Bahia's Luciano Juba, a defender with an impressive 9 goals, offers a rare scoring outlet, but Palmeiras' overall quality and home advantage should prevail.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras have won 10 of 20 meetings against Bahia, with Bahia winning 3 and 7 draws.
- 2.Palmeiras rank 2nd with 57 points from 28 games (W16 D9 L3).
- 3.Bahia rank 5th with 46 points from 27 games (W12 D10 L5).
- 4.Palmeiras have a +26 goal difference; Bahia have +9.
- 5.José López is Palmeiras' top scorer with 7 goals this season.
- 6.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season.
- 7.Luciano Juba is Bahia's top scorer with 9 goals, unusual for a defender.
- 8.No confirmed injuries for either team, allowing full-strength lineups.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a Palmeiras win, with a halftime lead of 1-0 and a fulltime score of 3-1. The match is expected to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Palmeiras
Away — Bahia
The verdict
Palmeiras' attacking trio and creative midfield, combined with their superior league standing and goal difference, make them favourites to secure a 3-1 victory over Bahia in this regular season fixture.
Prediction generated 21 Sep 2026, 00:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
López
Assist: Barboza
Acevedo
Yellow Card
Khellven
Yellow Card
Rodrigo Nestor
Acevedo
Pulga
Vitor Roque
López
Véliz
Olivera
Jean Lucas
Yellow Card
Andreas Pereira
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 31 | 19 | 9 | 3 | +32 | 66 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | +12 | 53 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
Match Statistics
Palmeiras
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 2A. BarbozaD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 12KhellvenM
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 26MuriloD
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 42J. LópezM
- 56ArthurM
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 4A. GiayD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 11J. AriasM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 18MaurícioM
- 19R. SosaF
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 32E. MartínezM
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
Bahia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1RonaldoG
- 4KanuD
- 5N. AcevedoM
- 6Jean LucasM
- 9A. VélizF
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 16Erick PulgaF
- 31Roman GomezD
- 33David DuarteD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 99C. OliveraF
Substitutes
- 3Marco MorenoD
- 7AdemirF
- 8Caio AlexandreM
- 10Éverton RibeiroM
- 12Willian JoséF
- 14ErickM
- 15M. AraújoM
- 17G. HerreraG
- 23M. SanabriaF
- 27EveraldoF
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 66Zé GuilhermeD
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. López | M | 69 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| G. Gómez | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| A. Barboza | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Murilo | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Arthur | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1/2 |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 87 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2/3 |
| J. Arias | M | 21 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Sosa | F | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 3 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khellven | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Vitor Roque | F | 69 | 6.5 | — | — | 5 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| E. Martínez | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Giay | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Felipe | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Larson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Piquerez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maurício | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bahia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronaldo | G | 90 | 8.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Alexandre | M | 25 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kanu | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| David Duarte | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ademir | F | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Willian José | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Rodrigo Nestor | M | 65 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Erick | M | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Roman Gomez | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Sanabria | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Olivera | F | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Erick Pulga | F | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Véliz | F | 82 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Acevedo | M | 65 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Marcos Victor | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Guilherme | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Moreno | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Araújo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Herrera | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Palmeiras vs Bahia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Bahia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Palmeiras 3–1 Bahia.
- What were the win probabilities for Palmeiras vs Bahia?
- Fipster's model gave Palmeiras a 95% chance of winning, Bahia a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.