Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense
Match recap
Palmeiras beat Atletico Paranaense 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Gómez scored for Palmeiras. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.41 for Palmeiras versus 0.33 for Atletico Paranaense. Palmeiras sit 1st in the Serie A table while Atletico Paranaense are 4th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Palmeiras win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
Palmeiras are gearing up to extend their impressive home scoring streak against Atletico Paranaense in this regular season clash. With a potent attack and solid midfield creativity, the home side looks poised to take control early and maintain dominance throughout the match.
Match factors
Palmeiras' attacking midfield creativity
Andreas Pereira leads with 10 assists, providing key chances to top scorers like José López.
Kevin Viveros' prolific scoring form
Viveros has 19 goals this season, including 4 in last 5 games, making him a major threat.
Palmeiras' strong home scoring streak
Palmeiras has scored in 4 consecutive home games, supporting predicted 4 goals in this match.
Defensive solidity of Joaquín Piquerez
Piquerez combines defensive strength with 4 assists, balancing defense and attack well.
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or outs, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans.
The context
This fixture is part of the 12th round of the regular season in league 71. Palmeiras currently sit 2nd in the league standings with 63 points from 30 games, boasting a significantly better goal difference than Atletico Paranaense. Historically, Palmeiras have the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, having won 11 of their 20 encounters with Atletico Paranaense.
Key insights
José López
Palmeiras
Top scorer for Palmeiras with 9 goals, strong home scoring form with 3 goals in last 10 home games, key focal point in attack.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 27 apps, 3 goals in last 10 home games
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
Leading scorer with 19 goals, excellent recent form with 4 goals in last 5 matches, main attacking threat.
Serie A 26/2719 goals in 27 apps, 4 goals in last 5 games
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Top assister with 10 assists, main creative hub, strong connection with scorers.
Serie A 26/2710 assists in 29 apps
- J
Joaquín Piquerez Moreira
Palmeiras
Combines defensive strength with 4 assists, balancing defense and attack well.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 15 apps
Analysis
Palmeiras' attacking midfield creativity, led by Andreas Pereira with 10 assists this season, provides a key advantage in breaking down Atletico Paranaense's defense. José López, the home side's top scorer with 9 goals, is expected to be a focal point in attack, supported by strong home form. Atletico Paranaense's main threat comes from Kevin Viveros Rodallega, who has netted 19 goals this season and is in excellent recent form. However, Palmeiras' defensive solidity, particularly from Joaquín Piquerez Moreira who combines defensive strength with attacking contributions, should help contain the away side's offensive efforts.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras are ranked 2nd in the league with 63 points from 30 games.
- 2.Palmeiras have a significantly better goal difference (30) than Atletico Paranaense this season.
- 3.Palmeiras have won 11 of 20 head-to-head meetings against Atletico Paranaense.
- 4.Palmeiras have scored in 4 consecutive home games this season.
- 5.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 10 assists this season.
- 6.Kevin Viveros Rodallega is Atletico Paranaense's top scorer with 19 goals.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The prediction is a confident home win for Palmeiras with a full-time scoreline of 4-1. The expected halftime score is 2-0, indicating Palmeiras will establish control early and build on their lead. The match is also anticipated to see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but disciplined encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Palmeiras
Away — Atletico Paranaense
The verdict
In summary, Palmeiras' superior home form, creative midfield, and effective attacking options make them the clear favourites to secure a comprehensive victory over Atletico Paranaense. Fans can expect an entertaining match with Palmeiras asserting their dominance from the outset.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gómez
Portilla
Yellow Card
Murilo
Yellow Card
Jádson
Yellow Card
Murilo
Yellow Card
Murilo
Red Card
López
Jádson
João Cruz
Yellow Card
Portilla
Dudu
Esquivel
Yellow Card
Sosa
Yellow Card
Andreas Pereira
Luiz Gustavo
Aguirre
Allan
Sosa
Arias
Penalty cancelled
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
Match Statistics
Palmeiras
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 11J. AriasM
- 15G. GómezD
- 19R. SosaF
- 26MuriloD
- 32E. MartínezM
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
- 56ArthurD
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 12KhellvenD
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 18MaurícioM
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 31Luighi HanriF
- 43BenedettiD
- 48LarsonM
- 50Luis FelipeM
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 7S. MendozaF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 16JádsonM
- 22C. TeránD
- 23SantosG
- 27J. PortillaM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelM
- 53DuduF
Substitutes
- 1MycaelG
- 3LéoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 26ClaudinhoD
- 47ChiquetiM
- 63Diogo RiquelmeM
- 70Renan PeixotoF
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Gomez(C) | D | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Allan | M | 83 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José López | F | 51 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 83 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Murilo | D | 47 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Larson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Fillipi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Khellven | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Pacheco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | 39 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Roque | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Luis Benedetti | D | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stiven Mendoza | F | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Arthur Dias | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Esquivel | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Jadson | M | 53 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Gustavo | M | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Terán | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Santos(C) | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | F | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camilo Portilla | M | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Diogo Riquelme | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Claudinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leo Pinheiro | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isaac | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonardo Derik | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 30 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Leozinho | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chiqueti | M | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| João Cruz | M | 37 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Palmeiras to win against Atletico Paranaense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Palmeiras 4–1 Atletico Paranaense.
- What were the win probabilities for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's model gave Palmeiras a 85% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.