Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen
- First leg:
- Hegelmann Litauen 1 1 Paide
- Aggregate:
- Paide 4 1 Hegelmann Litauen
- Advances:
- Paide
Match recap
Paide beat Hegelmann Litauen 3–0 in their UEFA Europa Conference League fixture.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Hegelmann Litauen win
Actual
3–0
Outcome probability
The 1st Qualifying Round clash between Paide and Hegelmann Litauen promises a tight contest, with both sides eager to make their mark early in the competition. While Paide have shown some attacking verve, the prediction leans towards an away win for Hegelmann Litauen by a slender margin.
Match factors
Paide's Daniel Luts leads scoring chances
Daniel Luts has scored 1 goal in 2 appearances this season, above average for midfielders in the league
Paide's defense led by N. Baranov is solid
Baranov's strong defensive stats and recent high rating suggest he can contain Hegelmann's forwards
Paide's recent home scoring streak
Paide has scored in last 3 home games, showing attacking momentum at home
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, no confirmed outs affecting key players
The context
Paide have played six matches in this competition so far this season, with a balanced record of two wins, two draws, and two losses, scoring seven goals and conceding eight. Hegelmann Litauen, on the other hand, have had a tougher time with no wins, one draw, and one loss in two matches, scoring once and conceding four. Their head-to-head history is limited but slightly favors Paide with one win and one draw from two meetings.
Key insights

Daniel Luts
Paide
Leads Paide's scoring chances with 1 goal in 2 appearances, an above-average rate for a midfielder in this competition.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances (competition 848, 2026 season)
- N
N. Baranov
Paide
Provides defensive solidity with a strong recent rating and above-average tackling and passing, crucial against Hegelmann's attack.
UEFA Europa Conference League 26/27Strong defensive rating (7.9) and 31 passes in recent match
Analysis
Paide's attacking momentum at home is notable, having scored in their last three home games. Midfielder Daniel Luts stands out as a key player, boasting a goal every two games this season, which is impressive for his position. Defensively, N. Baranov provides solidity with strong tackling and passing stats, crucial for containing Hegelmann's forwards. However, Hegelmann Litauen's resilience and tactical approach on the road could tip the scales in their favor, especially given Paide's recent defensive concessions. Both teams have full squads available, so fitness shouldn't be a deciding factor.
Key facts
- 1.Paide have played 6 matches in this competition (W2 D2 L2, GF 7 / GA 8).
- 2.Hegelmann Litauen have played 2 matches in this competition (W0 D1 L1, GF 1 / GA 4).
- 3.In 2 head-to-head meetings, Paide have won 1, Hegelmann Litauen have won 0, with 1 draw.
- 4.Daniel Luts is Paide's top scorer with 1 goal in 2 appearances this season.
- 5.Paide have scored in their last 3 home games, showing attacking momentum.
- 6.N. Baranov has a strong defensive rating and is key to Paide's backline.
- 7.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed injuries.
Prediction
Despite Paide's home scoring streak and solid defensive efforts, the prediction favors Hegelmann Litauen to secure a 2-1 away win. Their ability to exploit defensive gaps and clinical finishing could prove decisive in this closely fought encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Paide

Away — Hegelmann Litauen
No standout top scorers flagged for Hegelmann Litauen
The verdict
This fixture is set to be a competitive affair with moments of quality from both sides. While Paide will look to leverage their home form and key players like Daniel Luts, Hegelmann Litauen's tactical discipline and opportunism are expected to earn them the victory. Expect a tight game with a couple of goals and an away win to round it off.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 11:25 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Goal
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Goal
Yellow Card
Unknown
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Goal
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Yellow Card
Paide
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3Victor Hugo dos Santos de SáD
- 4Pedro Andrade DrozinaD
- 7E. TurD
- 10M. MillerM
- 11M. P. Sohna
- 24R. NigulaM
- 27N. BaranovD
- 28O. HõimM
- 30A. BadamosiF
- 77D. LutsM
- 99E. JarjuG
Substitutes
- 2M. LilanderD
- 6Daniel CabralM
- 8H. OjamaaM
- 9H. AnierF
- 12M. MeeritsG
- 14M. JobartehM
- 16A. SuroginM
- 17Pa Abdou ChamM
- 19S. LutsM
- 20K. PihtF
- 21R. SmirnovM
- 56M. SappG
Hegelmann Litauen
4-4-2Starting XI
- 7C. DukeD
- 8V. ArmanavičiusM
- 11N. KaderF
- 16M. RemeikisM
- 18R. SadauskasD
- 21E. KaušinisM
- 26D. SlendzokaD
- 30B. Isaac
- 31R. BagdonavičiusG
- 37V. RadonjaD
- 77WesleyM
Substitutes
- 1L. PaukštėG
- 5A. PuertoD
- 6A. HarounaM
- 9D. KazlauskasM
- 10S. GouetM
- 19D. PasilysM
- 22D. TibellF
- 24D. SinkeviciusF
- 45A. ShchedryiM
- 67A. KaulinisM
- 80L. KolendoG
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Hegelmann Litauen to win against Paide.
- What score did Fipster predict for Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Paide 1–2 Hegelmann Litauen.
- What were the win probabilities for Paide vs Hegelmann Litauen?
- Fipster's model gave Paide a 27% chance of winning, Hegelmann Litauen a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 45% confidence — a low-confidence call.




