Oviedo vs Alaves
Match recap
Alaves beat Oviedo 1–0 in their La Liga fixture. Toni Martínez scored for Alaves. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.34 for Oviedo versus 1.46 for Alaves. Oviedo sit 20th in the La Liga table while Alaves are 14th.
Analysis
Oviedo hosts Alaves in what promises to be a closely fought encounter in the 37th round of the season. Both teams have had their struggles, but neither is expected to dominate outright.
Oviedo sits precariously at 20th place with just 29 points, struggling for form and missing key attackers like Viñas and Chaira due to suspension and injury. Alaves, ranked 16th with 40 points, boast a better goal difference and have been scoring consistently, though they face their own midfield challenges with Blanco suspended.
The match is likely to be a tactical stalemate with both sides cautious. Oviedo's reliance on Chaira's home scoring form is hampered by his suspension, while Alaves' Toni Martínez leads their attack but his fitness is uncertain. Defensive absences for Oviedo could be exploited, but Alaves' midfield suspension may blunt their control. The predicted 1-1 scoreline reflects this balance.
Prediction
We forecast a 1-1 draw with a 36% confidence level. The first half should remain goalless as both teams probe cautiously, with the deadlock broken in the second half. Expect a competitive match with around four cards issued, reflecting the tension and stakes involved.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Key attackers missing for Oviedo
Top scorers Viñas and Chaira are suspended/injured, weakening Oviedo's attack potential.
Alaves' scoring streak
Alaves have scored in last 5 matches, showing strong attacking momentum.
Midfield control at risk for Alaves
Suspension of Blanco reduces Alaves' midfield defensive and passing strength.
Chaira's home scoring form
Chaira's better home scoring rate suggests Oviedo relies on him heavily at home.
Defensive absences weaken Oviedo
Injuries and suspensions to key defenders Carmo and Costas may expose Oviedo's defense.
Key Takeaways
In summary, neither side has the upper hand given their current form and absences. Fans should brace for a gritty encounter where a draw seems the fairest result. Both teams will look to build on this as the season nears its conclusion.
- Oviedo ranks 20th with 29 points from 36 games (W6 D11 L19).
- Alaves ranks 16th with 40 points from 36 games (W10 D10 L16).
- Alaves have a significantly better goal difference (+18) than Oviedo.
- The highest probability fulltime scoreline is a 1-1 draw.
- Oviedo's top scorers Viñas and Chaira are unavailable due to injury and suspension.
- Alaves have scored in their last 5 matches, showing attacking momentum.
- Midfield suspension for Alaves' Blanco may impact their control.
- Predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating a competitive game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Oviedo
Away — Alaves
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Toni Martínez
Assist: Rebbach
Rebbach
Fonseca
Fernández
Yellow Card
Viñas
Yellow Card
Colombatto
Diabate
Suárez
Ahijado
Yellow Card
Viñas
Hassan
Toni Martínez
Ahijado
Guridi
Yusi
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Oviedo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1H. MoldovanG
- 4David CostasD
- 5Alberto ReinaM
- 8Santi CazorlaM
- 9F. ViñasF
- 10H. HassanM
- 11S. ColombattoM
- 12Dani CalvoD
- 23N. FonsecaM
- 24Lucas AhijadoD
- 25Javi LópezD
Substitutes
- 2E. BaillyD
- 3R. AlhassaneD
- 6K. SiboM
- 7I. ChairaF
- 13Aarón EscandellG
- 15T. FernándezF
- 16David CarmoD
- 17T. BorbasF
- 19Álex ForésF
- 21L. IlićM
- 22Nacho VidalD
- 26Miguel NarváezG
Alaves
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1SiveraG
- 4Denis SuárezM
- 7Angel PérezM
- 8Antonio BlancoM
- 11Toni MartínezF
- 14N. TenagliaD
- 16V. KoskiD
- 18Jon GuridiM
- 21A. RebbachM
- 22I. DiabateF
- 24Víctor ParadaD
Substitutes
- 3YusiD
- 5Jon PachecoD
- 6GuevaraM
- 9M. DíazF
- 10Carles AleñáM
- 13Raúl FernándezG
- 15L. BoyéF
- 17JonnyD
- 19Pablo IbáñezM
- 20CalebeM
- 23C. BenavídezM
- 34A. Manas
Oviedo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santi Cazorla(C) | M | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Dani Calvo | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alberto Reina | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| David Costas | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Haissem Hassan | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/6 |
| Santiago Colombatto | M | 66 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Fonseca | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horațiu Moldovan | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Federico Viñas | F | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Ahijado | D | 85 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| Javi López | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luka Ilić | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Bailly | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kwasi Sibo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aarón Escandell | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Carmo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Narvaez | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdel Rahim | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Borbas | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ilyas Chaira | F | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nacho Vidal | D | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Fernández | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| Álex Forés | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Alaves
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abderrahman Rebbach | M | 45 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Ángel Pérez | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Jon Guridi | M | 87 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ville Koski | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Parada | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Sivera | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Antonio Blanco(C) | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Toni Martínez | F | 82 | 6.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Calebe Gonçalves | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jon Pacheco | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonny Otto | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Fernández | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ander Guevara | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mariano Díaz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Youssef Enriquez | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Carlos Benavídez | M | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Mañas | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Boyé | F | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |