Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano
Rayo Vallecano snatch draw at Osasuna
Sergio Camello's second-half strike cancels out A. Budimir's early opener.
Osasuna looked set for a narrow victory after A. Budimir's early goal in the 16th minute, but Rayo Vallecano fought back after the break with Sergio Camello leveling the score in the 50th minute. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a home win, proving that Rayo had other ideas on the day.
Outcome probability
As the seventh round of the season unfolds, Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano face off in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both sides have shown flashes of promise but are eager to climb the league table with a vital win.
Match factors
Budimir's scoring form vs Rayo's defense
Ante Budimir's 4 goals in 5 games highlight his threat against a Rayo defense conceding 2.5 goals per game
Rayo's attacking momentum
Rayo Vallecano have scored in all last 5 matches, showing strong offensive form despite defensive issues
Absence of Moi Gómez weakens Osasuna creativity
Moi Gómez is out injured, removing a key assist provider and creative attacker from Osasuna's lineup
Sergio Camello's consistent scoring
Camello's 6 goals in 6 games and recent multi-goal matches boost Rayo's scoring chances
The context
Osasuna currently sit 13th in the league with 7 points from 6 games, mirroring Rayo Vallecano's 11th place and identical points tally. Both teams have recorded two wins, one draw, and three losses, making this match a crucial opportunity to gain ground.
Key insights
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Budimir's 4 goals in 5 games highlight his threat against a Rayo defense conceding 2.5 goals per game.
La Liga 26/274 goals in 5 appearances, 0.8 goals/game
Sergio Camello
Rayo Vallecano
Camello's 6 goals in 6 games and recent multi-goal matches boost Rayo's scoring chances.
La Liga 26/276 goals in 6 appearances, 1.0 goals/game
- M
Moi Gómez
Osasuna
Absence of Moi Gómez weakens Osasuna's creativity and assist potential.
La Liga 26/271 assist in 5 appearances, 0.2 assists/game
Analysis
Osasuna's Ante Budimir has been in fine form, netting 4 goals in 5 appearances and providing a focal point for their attack. Meanwhile, Rayo Vallecano's Sergio Camello leads the league scoring charts with 6 goals in 6 games, ensuring the visitors remain a threat. However, Osasuna's defensive resilience and home advantage are likely to stifle Rayo's offensive momentum. The absence of Moi Gómez for Osasuna may reduce creativity, but the home side's tactical discipline should see them through.
Key facts
- 1.Osasuna are 13th in the league with 7 points from 6 games (W2 D1 L3).
- 2.Rayo Vallecano are 11th with 7 points from 6 games (W2 D1 L3).
- 3.Ante Budimir has scored 4 goals in 5 appearances for Osasuna.
- 4.Sergio Camello leads Rayo Vallecano with 6 goals in 6 games.
- 5.Osasuna's predicted scoreline is a 1-0 home win.
- 6.The match is expected to see around 4 cards.
- 7.Halftime score prediction is 1-0, consistent with fulltime.
- 8.Moi Gómez is out injured, impacting Osasuna's creativity.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for Osasuna with a 1-0 scoreline, consistent with the most probable halftime and fulltime results. Expect a tightly fought match with limited goals and a moderate number of cards, around four, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Osasuna
Away — Rayo Vallecano
The verdict
In summary, Osasuna's solid form at home and Budimir's goal-scoring prowess give them the edge in this encounter. Rayo Vallecano will pose challenges, but the home side's narrow victory looks the most likely outcome.
Prediction generated 17 Sep 2026, 00:04 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Budimir
Osambela
Yellow Card
Ciss
Yellow Card
Camello
Assist: Pedrosa
Kike Barja
Rico
Óscar Valentín
Moncayola
Yellow Card
Moncayola
García
de Frutos
Camello
Santos
Herrera
Yellow Card
López
García
Alemão
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +24 | 21 |
| 10 |  Getafe | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 |  Osasuna | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 |  Celta Vigo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 7 |
Match Statistics
Osasuna
5-4-1Starting XI
- 7MoncayolaM
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 11Kike BarjaM
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 15Diego RicoD
- 17A. BudimirF
- 24CatenaD
- 27Íñigo ArguibideD
- 29Asier OsambelaD
- 35U. SantosD
Substitutes
- 1Sergio HerreraG
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 18Raul MoroF
- 20R. Del CastilloM
- 21Jonathan DubasinF
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 26Mauro EchegoyenM
- 30Asier BonelF
- 31Rafa FernándezG
- 48R. YeboahD
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2A. RațiuD
- 6P. CissM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 25E. AuderoG
Substitutes
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 9AlemãoF
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
- 20I. BalliuD
- 21Fran PérezF
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 26Marco de las SíasD
- 36G. BouareM
- 37Rayane BelidF
Osasuna
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Budimir | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Abel Bretones | D | 34 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl García | F | 17 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/3 |
| Iker Muñoz | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Rubén García | M | 69 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Diego Rico | D | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Íñigo Arguibide | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Catena | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jonathan Dubasin | F | 21 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kike Barja | M | 56 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Lucas Torró | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Fernández | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| U. Santos | D | 73 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raul Moro | F | 34 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Asier Osambela | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Moncayola | M | 69 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Herrera | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Del Castillo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Asier Bonel | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauro Echegoyen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Yeboah | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafa Fernández | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Boyomo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello | F | 71 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Adrià Pedrosa | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| F. Lejeune | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| E. Audero | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 60 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mujaid Sadick | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 71 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3/4 |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 30 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Alemão | F | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| P. Ciss | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| A. Rațiu | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Álvaro García | F | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | 5 | — | — | — |
| G. Bouare | M | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Unai López | M | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| I. Balliu | D | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Tsitaishvili | F | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Dani Cárdenas | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Pérez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pelayo Fernández | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Belid | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco de las Sías | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kumbulla | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Osasuna to win against Rayo Vallecano.
- What score did Fipster predict for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Osasuna 1–0 Rayo Vallecano.
- What were the win probabilities for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Fipster's model gave Osasuna a 48% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 48% confidence — a medium-confidence call.