Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid
Match recap
Atletico Madrid beat Osasuna 2–1 in their La Liga fixture. Kike Barja scored for Osasuna; Lookman and Sørloth replied for Atletico Madrid. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.16 for Osasuna versus 1.64 for Atletico Madrid. Osasuna sit 17th in the La Liga table while Atletico Madrid are 4th.
Analysis
As La Liga nears its climax, Osasuna host Atletico Madrid in what promises to be a tightly contested fixture. Both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Osasuna sit mid-table with 42 points, while Atletico Madrid are pushing for European spots with 63 points. Atletico's superior goal difference and points per game highlight their edge, but Osasuna's home form and recent scoring streak make them formidable opponents.
Atletico Madrid boast a better goal difference (+23) and average 1.80 points per game compared to Osasuna's 1.20. However, key absences on both sides, including top scorers and creative midfielders, level the playing field. Osasuna's Budimir remains a key threat at home despite injury concerns, while Atletico's Griezmann looks to lead the attack amid suspensions.
Prediction
The highest probability outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a goalless first half expected. Both teams have shown resilience and attacking capability, but defensive lapses and missing players suggest neither will dominate. Expect four cards as tempers flare in this competitive fixture.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Key attackers missing for Osasuna
Budimir, Raúl García, and Víctor Muñoz are injured or suspended, weakening Osasuna's goal threat.
Atletico missing key attackers and playmakers
Sørloth, Álvarez, and Simeone are unavailable, reducing Atletico's offensive potency and creativity.
Defensive stability weakened for Osasuna
Catena and Boyomo suspensions/injuries reduce defensive solidity against Atletico's attack.
Atletico's superior recent scoring form
Atletico averages 1.7 goals/game vs Osasuna's 1.2, with better away scoring and form momentum.
Osasuna's home scoring streak vs Atletico's scoring consistency
Osasuna scores consistently at home but concedes often; Atletico scores in all recent away games.
Key Takeaways
In summary, this match is poised to be a balanced affair with both sides sharing the points. Fans can anticipate a tactical battle with moments of quality, culminating in a fair 1-1 draw.
- Osasuna are 10th with 42 points from 35 games (W11 D9 L15).
- Atletico Madrid are 4th with 63 points from 35 games (W19 D6 L10).
- Atletico Madrid have a superior goal difference of +23 compared to Osasuna.
- Atletico average 1.80 points per game, Osasuna 1.20.
- The predicted fulltime scoreline is 1-1, with a 35% confidence level.
- The halftime score is expected to be 0-0.
- Modal total cards predicted are 4, indicating a competitive match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Osasuna
Away — Atletico Madrid
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Penalty confirmed
Javi Galán
Yellow Card
Lookman
Penalty
Mendoza
García
Yellow Card
Moro
Penalty cancelled
Budimir
Yellow Card
Almada
Llorente
Yellow Card
Kike Barja
Yellow Card
Koke
Yellow Card
Pubill
Yellow Card
García
Javi Galán
Sørloth
Assist: Llorente
Torró
Moi Gómez
Llorente
Yellow Card
Llorente
Red Card
Lookman
Robin Le Normand
Yellow Card
Catena
Yellow Card
Boyomo
Yellow Card
Kike Barja
Assist: García
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | +59 | 94 |
| 3 |  Villarreal | 38 | 22 | 6 | 10 | +26 | 72 |
| 4 |  Atletico Madrid | 38 | 21 | 6 | 11 | +18 | 69 |
| 5 |  Real Betis | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | +11 | 60 |
| 16 |  Levante | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -14 | 42 |
| 17 |  Osasuna | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -6 | 42 |
| 18 |  Mallorca | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | -10 | 42 |
Match Statistics
Osasuna
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6Lucas TorróM
- 7MoncayolaM
- 13Aitor FernándezG
- 14Rubén GarcíaM
- 16Moi GómezM
- 17A. BudimirF
- 18Raul MoroM
- 19V. RosierD
- 20Javi GalánD
- 22F. BoyomoD
- 24CatenaD
Substitutes
- 2Iker BenitoF
- 3Juan CruzD
- 5Jorge HerrandoD
- 8Iker MuñozM
- 9Raúl GarcíaF
- 10Aimar OrozM
- 11Kike BarjaF
- 23Abel BretonesD
- 29Asier OsambelaM
- 31D. StamatakisG
- 41Íñigo ArguibideD
Atletico Madrid
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1J. MussoG
- 3M. RuggeriD
- 4Rodrigo MendozaM
- 6KokeM
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 11T. AlmadaM
- 14Marcos LlorenteD
- 17D. HanckoD
- 18Marc PubillD
- 21O. VargasM
- 22A. LookmanF
Substitutes
- 9A. SørlothF
- 13J. OblakG
- 15C. LengletD
- 24Robin Le NormandD
- 29Rayane BelidF
- 31Salvador EsquivelG
- 32Javier BoñarD
- 34Julio Díaz del RomoM
- 37I. LuqueF
- 40A. PuricD
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 61M. LlorenteF
Osasuna
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moi Gómez | M | 72 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Valentin Rosier | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Jon Moncayola | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Aitor Fernández | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Catena | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Torró | M | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Enzo Boyomo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rubén García(C) | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Javi Galán | D | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Raúl Moro | M | 37 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ante Budimir | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 7 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Iñigo Arguibide | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dimitrios Stamatakis | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iker Benito | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iker Muñoz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Herrando | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Cruz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kike Barja | F | 53 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Raúl García de Haro | F | 30 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | 1/1 |
| Aimar Oroz | M | 18 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Abel Bretones | D | 30 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Asier Osambela | M | 18 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Musso | G | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Llorente | D | 79 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ademola Lookman | F | 82 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Obed Vargas | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| Marc Pubill | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Dávid Hancko | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Almada | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antoine Griezmann | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza | M | 18 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Koke(C) | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matteo Ruggeri | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Julio Díaz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Oblak | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Salvi Esquivel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Llorente | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iker Luque | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javi Morcillo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Belaid | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aleksa Purić | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Boñar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Sørloth | F | 45 | 7.0 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Robin Le Normand | D | 72 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Clément Lenglet | D | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |