Orlando City SC vs New York Red Bulls
Match recap
New York Red Bulls beat Orlando City SC 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Tiago scored for Orlando City SC; Hall and Hall replied for New York Red Bulls. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.41 for Orlando City SC versus 4.64 for New York Red Bulls.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 Orlando City SC win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
The opening round of the 2026 MLS regular season sees Orlando City SC face off against New York Red Bulls in what promises to be a closely contested affair. Both teams have shown attacking potential, but the home side's recent form and key players could tip the balance.
Match factors
Orlando City's attacking trio in strong form
Ojeda, Griezmann, and Angulo have high goal involvement and good recent form, boosting home attack potential
Justin Ellis as key creative force
Ellis leads Orlando City in assists with 8, linking well with top scorers
Home scoring consistency for Orlando City
Orlando City has scored in last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum
Julian Hall's consistent scoring for Red Bulls
Hall has 10 goals this season and recent goals in last matches, posing threat even away
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from absences
The context
This match marks the first regular season encounter between Orlando City SC and New York Red Bulls this year. Historically, their meetings have been competitive, with an average of 2.5 goals per game. Orlando City have demonstrated consistent scoring at home, while New York Red Bulls rely on their top scorer Julian Hall to provide the offensive threat.
Key insights
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Top scorer with 13 goals, well above league average, and a key focal point in attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 21 appearances, 0.62 goals/game
Antoine Griezmann
Orlando City SC
Creative midfielder with high goal and assist rates, central to Orlando's attacking play.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 11 appearances
Justin Ellis
Orlando City SC
Leading assister with 8 assists, crucial in chance creation and linking play.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 19 appearances, 0.42 assists/game
J. Hall
New York Red Bulls
Consistent scorer with 10 goals, the main offensive threat for the Red Bulls.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 26 appearances, 0.38 goals/game
Analysis
Orlando City's attacking trio of Martín Ojeda, Antoine Griezmann, and Iván Angulo Cortés have been in excellent form, combining for a significant portion of the team's goals this season. Justin Ellis's creativity as the leading assister further strengthens their offensive chances. Meanwhile, New York's Julian Hall remains a consistent goal threat, but the Red Bulls will need more support to break down Orlando's defence, marshalled by captain Robin Jansson. Both teams have full squads available, so fitness won't be a concern.
Key facts
- 1.Orlando City SC have scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 2.Julian Hall is New York Red Bulls' top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 3.Orlando City's Martín Ojeda leads with 13 goals, well above league average for attackers.
- 4.Justin Ellis leads Orlando City with 8 assists, highlighting his creative influence.
- 5.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed injuries.
- 6.Head-to-head matches between these teams average 2.5 goals per game.
- 7.Orlando City SC have won 7 of 20 meetings against New York Red Bulls, who have won 9.
- 8.The predicted scoreline of 1-0 is the most probable home win outcome.
Prediction
We predict a narrow 1-0 victory for Orlando City SC. The home side's attacking momentum and solid defensive organisation should be enough to secure all three points. Expect a tight game with limited scoring opportunities, but Orlando's quality in key areas should make the difference.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Orlando City SC
Away — New York Red Bulls
The verdict
In summary, Orlando City SC's blend of attacking flair and defensive resilience gives them the edge in this opening MLS fixture. New York Red Bulls will pose a threat, but ultimately, the home side's form and key players should see them through to a slender win.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Hall
Assist: Forsberg
Cartagena
Hall
Assist: Mehmeti
Spicer
Yellow Card
Pasalic
Iago
Che
Yellow Card
Mehmeti
Yellow Card
Marshall-Rutty
Dos Santos
Spicer
Mehmeti
Ruvalcaba
Dorsey
Hall
Tiago
Assist: Taifi
Match Statistics
Orlando City SC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaM
- 13D. McGuireF
- 14T. SpicerM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 24G. DorseyD
- 57IagoD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 87Marco PasalicM
Substitutes
- 11TiagoF
- 12Javier OteroG
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 21N. MillerD
- 22Justin EllisF
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 29T. Reid-BrownD
- 34Y. TsukadaF
- 77I. AnguloM
New York Red Bulls
Starting XI
- 2J. CheD
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 7C. CowellF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 12D. NealisD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 48R. DonkorM
- 56M. Dos SantosD
Substitutes
- 4G. BerggrenM
- 5O. ValenciaD
- 6R. VoloderD
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 20J. MinaD
- 66T. RosboroughM
- 70A. RojasF
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 79R. MosqueraF
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxime Crépeau | G | 90 | 8.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martín Ojeda(C) | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| David Brekalo | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrián Marín | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Tyrese Spicer | M | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/6 |
| Griffin Dorsey | D | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Braian Ojeda | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Wilder Cartagena | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duncan McGuire | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Pašalić | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Iago Silva | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Justin Ellis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tahir Reid-Brown | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yutaro Tsukada | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Souza | F | 14 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Zakaria Taifi | M | 11 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Iván Angulo | M | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Nolan Miller | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Colin Guske | M | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adri Mehmeti | M | 76 | 8.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Emil Forsberg(C) | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2/5 |
| Justin Che | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Julian Hall | F | 87 | 7.5 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2/4 |
| Ronald Donkor | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 2/3 |
| Ethan Horvath | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matthew Dos Santos | D | 65 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Cade Cowell | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4/6 |
| Dylan Nealis | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty | D | 65 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge Ruvalcaba | F | 75 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Andy Rojas | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Mosquera | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Voloder | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John McCarthy | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Valencia | D | 25 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Mina | D | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustav Berggren | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tanner Rosborough | M | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Orlando City SC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Orlando City SC to win against New York Red Bulls.
- What score did Fipster predict for Orlando City SC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Orlando City SC 1–0 New York Red Bulls.
- What were the win probabilities for Orlando City SC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's model gave Orlando City SC a 49% chance of winning, New York Red Bulls a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 49% confidence — a medium-confidence call.