Orlando City SC vs New York City FC
Orlando City and NYC FC share spoils
A spirited 2-2 draw sees both sides claim a point in a lively MLS encounter.
New York City FC took an early lead through A. Martínez before A. Griezmann and M. Ojeda turned the game in Orlando City's favour with goals before and just after the break. Despite a missed penalty by Talles Magno for NYC FC in the 81st minute, the visitors managed to hold on for a draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a comfortable home win, proving the match far more competitive than expected.
Outcome probability
Orlando City SC and New York City FC face off in the 31st round of the regular season, with Orlando looking to leverage their strong home form and attacking prowess.
Match factors
Orlando City's potent home attack led by Ojeda and Griezmann
Ojeda and Griezmann combine for 22 goals this season with strong home form, likely to exploit NYCFC's defense.
Agustin Ojeda's creative influence for NYCFC
Ojeda's 10 assists and consistent starts make him a key playmaker to watch against Orlando's defense.
Orlando City's higher average goals scored per game
Orlando averages 1.93 goals per game vs NYCFC's 1.45, supporting the predicted 4-1 scoreline.
Griezmann's recent scoring surge
Griezmann scored 4 goals in last 5 games, including 3 at home, indicating strong current form.
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans.
The context
Historically, New York City FC have the upper hand with 9 wins out of 19 meetings, while Orlando City SC have managed only 2 wins and 8 draws. Matches between these sides average 3 goals, with New York City FC scoring more overall. However, current season dynamics suggest a shift in momentum.
Key insights
- M
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Leads team scoring with 14 goals, strong recent form with 4 goals in last 5 games, and excellent home scoring rate.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 23 appearances, 0.61 goals/game
Antoine Griezmann
Orlando City SC
Exceptional goal and assist contribution for a midfielder, with 4 goals in last 5 games and 3 goals in last 2 home fixtures.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 11 appearances, 0.73 goals/game
- A
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Leading assister with 10 assists, consistent starter, and strong recent form with 2 assists in last 5 games.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 29 appearances, 0.34 assists/game
Analysis
Orlando City SC boast a higher average goals scored per game (1.93) compared to New York City FC's 1.45, underpinned by the impressive form of Martín Ojeda and Antoine Griezmann. Ojeda leads with 14 goals this season, including a strong home scoring rate, while Griezmann has netted 4 goals in his last 5 games, including 3 at home. New York City's creative force, Agustin Ojeda, with 10 assists, will look to unlock Orlando's defence, but the home side's attacking depth and recent momentum give them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.In 19 meetings, New York City FC lead with 9 wins, Orlando City SC have 2 wins, and 8 draws.
- 2.Matches between these teams average 3.0 goals per game.
- 3.Orlando City SC average 1.93 goals per game this season, higher than New York City FC's 1.45.
- 4.Martín Ojeda is Orlando's top scorer with 14 goals, including strong home form.
- 5.Antoine Griezmann has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games, with 3 at home.
- 6.Agustin Ojeda leads New York City FC with 10 assists this season.
- 7.No confirmed absences for either team, ensuring full-strength lineups.
Prediction
Expect Orlando City SC to take an early lead, reflected in a predicted 2-0 halftime score, before extending their advantage to a 4-1 fulltime victory. The match is also likely to see around 4 cards, indicating a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Orlando City SC
Away — New York City FC
The verdict
With both teams fielding full-strength squads, the tactical battle will be fascinating, but Orlando City's home advantage and attacking form should see them comfortably through.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 01:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Martínez
Assist: Wolf
Freese
Griezmann
Assist: Ojeda
Nogueira
Yellow Card
Sands
Yellow Card
Ojeda
Ojeda
Assist: Nogueira
Ellis
Iago
Yellow Card
Ojeda
Iago
Nogueira
O'Neill
Cartagena
Yellow Card
Talles Magno
Missed Penalty
Wolf
Martínez
Ojeda
Atuesta
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Orlando City SC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 7A. GriezmannF
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaM
- 16W. CartagenaM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 22Justin EllisM
- 27Vinícius NogueiraD
- 57IagoD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloD
Substitutes
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 9D. DikeF
- 12Javier OteroG
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 21N. MillerD
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 35Joran GerbetM
- 44Bernardo Rhein GoncalvesF
- 87Marco PasalicF
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6J. SandsD
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 8A. PereaM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 16A. MartínezF
- 17H. WolfM
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 49M. FreeseG
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 9B. TraoréF
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 88M. JonesF
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ojeda | M | 83 | 8.9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| A. Griezmann | F | 38 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Crépeau | G | 38 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Angulo | D | 38 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Brekalo | D | 38 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Atuesta | M | 38 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| W. Cartagena | M | 38 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Ojeda | M | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Iago | D | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Justin Ellis | M | 60 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Vinícius Nogueira | D | 71 | 5.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Dike | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joran Gerbet | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Taifi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Rhein Goncalves | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Miller | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harvey Sarajian | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrián Marín | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Pasalic | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Martínez | F | 82 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 2/3 |
| H. Wolf | M | 82 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| N. Fernández Mercau | M | 38 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 1/1 |
| T. Gray | D | 38 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| A. Perea | M | 38 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Thiago Martins | D | 38 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Ojeda | M | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| K. O'Toole | D | 38 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Sands | D | 38 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. O'Neill | M | 71 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Freese | G | 28 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Romero | G | 10 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Traoré | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Shore | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Jones | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nico Cavallo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Miazga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | 4 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Orlando City SC vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Orlando City SC to win against New York City FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Orlando City SC vs New York City FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Orlando City SC 4–1 New York City FC.
- What were the win probabilities for Orlando City SC vs New York City FC?
- Fipster's model gave Orlando City SC a 90% chance of winning, New York City FC a 5% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 90% confidence — a high-confidence call.