Orlando City SC vs Inter Miami
Match recap
Inter Miami beat Orlando City SC 4–2 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Pasalic and Ojeda scored for Orlando City SC; Silvetti, Messi, Segovia, and Messi replied for Inter Miami. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.81 for Orlando City SC versus 1.82 for Inter Miami.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Orlando City SC win
Actual
2–4
Outcome probability
Orlando City SC and Inter Miami face off in what promises to be an entertaining MLS regular season encounter. Both teams have shown offensive prowess in their recent meetings, making this clash one to watch for goals and tactical battles.
Match factors
Orlando's attacking trio in strong recent form
Ojeda, Griezmann, and Angulo have combined for multiple goals recently, boosting Orlando's scoring potential
Messi's dual threat as scorer and assister
Messi leads Inter Miami with 23 goals and 11 assists, making him a constant threat
Orlando's home scoring streak
Orlando City has scored in their last 5 home games, indicating strong offensive momentum
Angulo's recent scoring surge
Iván Angulo scored 5 goals in last 5 games, showing peak form entering this match
Justin Ellis as key assist provider
Ellis leads Orlando with 8 assists and strong recent form, linking well with top scorers
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season, with Orlando City SC and Inter Miami having a balanced head-to-head record of seven wins each and six draws from 20 meetings. Their encounters typically feature a healthy number of goals, averaging 3.3 per game, highlighting the attacking strengths on both sides.
Key insights
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Top scorer for Orlando City with 13 goals, well above league average for attackers, making him a key threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 21 appearances, 0.62 goals/game
- L
Lionel Messi Cuccittini
Inter Miami
League-leading scorer with 23 goals and top assister with 11 assists, making him a constant dual threat for Inter Miami.
Major League Soccer 26/2723 goals and 11 assists in 25 appearances
Antoine Griezmann
Orlando City SC
High goal and assist rate for a midfielder, contributing 8 goals and 4 assists in 11 games, boosting Orlando's attack at home.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 11 appearances
- I
Iván Angulo Cortés
Orlando City SC
Recent scoring surge with 5 goals in last 5 games, showing peak form entering this match.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals in last 5 games
Justin Ellis
Orlando City SC
Top assister for Orlando City with 8 assists, linking well with top scorers and providing creative spark.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 19 appearances, 0.42 assists/game
Analysis
Orlando City SC enter this fixture with a strong home scoring streak, having found the net in their last five home games. Key players like Martín Ojeda and Antoine Griezmann have been in fine form, combining goals and assists to boost Orlando's attacking threat. Inter Miami, led by Lionel Messi's exceptional goal and assist tally, remain dangerous but may struggle to contain Orlando's offensive trio. Iván Angulo Cortés's recent scoring surge adds further firepower to Orlando's lineup, while Justin Ellis's creativity from midfield provides crucial support. Despite Inter Miami's quality, Orlando's home momentum and attacking balance give them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Orlando City SC and Inter Miami have each won 7 of their 20 meetings, with 6 draws.
- 2.Their head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals, indicating open, attacking games.
- 3.Martín Ojeda is Orlando City's top scorer with 13 goals this season.
- 4.Lionel Messi leads Inter Miami with 23 goals and 11 assists this season.
- 5.Orlando City has scored in their last 5 home games, showing strong offensive momentum.
- 6.Iván Angulo Cortés has scored 5 goals in his last 5 games, boosting Orlando's attack.
- 7.Justin Ellis leads Orlando City with 8 assists, providing key creative support.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Orlando City SC with a 3-1 scoreline. While the data suggests a strong likelihood of victory for Orlando, the call is made with a degree of caution due to limited match history and missing standings data. Nonetheless, the home side's attacking form and key player contributions make them the favourites to claim the three points.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Orlando City SC
Away — Inter Miami
The verdict
In summary, Orlando City SC's recent offensive form and home scoring consistency position them well to overcome Inter Miami in this MLS fixture. Fans can expect an engaging match with goals, but ultimately Orlando's firepower should secure a 3-1 victory.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:16 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pasalic
Assist: Angulo
Ojeda
Assist: Dorsey
Miller
Yellow Card
Allende
Yellow Card
Guske
Yellow Card
Allen
Silvetti
Assist: Segovia
Messi
Assist: Segovia
Miller
McGuire
Dorsey
Yellow Card
Pasalic
Yellow Card
Angulo
Pasalic
Segovia
Guske
Yellow Card
Guske
Red Card
Allende
Segovia
Yellow Card
De Paul
Yellow Card
Messi
Match Statistics
Orlando City SC
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaF
- 13D. McGuireF
- 21N. MillerD
- 24G. DorseyM
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 29T. Reid-BrownD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloM
- 87Marco PasalicF
Substitutes
- 11TiagoF
- 12Javier OteroG
- 14T. SpicerF
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 22Justin EllisF
- 34Y. TsukadaF
- 39Luis OtávioM
- 57IagoD
Inter Miami
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4F. MuraD
- 7R. De PaulM
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 10L. MessiM
- 16MicaelD
- 19G. BerterameF
- 21T. AllendeM
- 32N. AllenD
- 37M. FalcónD
- 42Y. BrightM
- 97D. St. ClairG
Substitutes
- 2G. LujánD
- 17I. FrayD
- 20S. MoralesM
- 24Mateo SilvettiF
- 34R. Ríos NovoG
- 41D. RuízM
- 56Daniel PinterF
- 88A. ShawM
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Ojeda(C) | F | 90 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Marco Pašalić | F | 79 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Braian Ojeda | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Iván Angulo | M | 79 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Griffin Dorsey | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Nolan Miller | D | 59 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duncan McGuire | F | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Maxime Crépeau | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Brekalo | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Tahir Reid-Brown | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Colin Guske | M | 88 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Justin Ellis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zakaria Taifi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yutaro Tsukada | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Souza | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduard Atuesta | M | 11 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Tyrese Spicer | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| Iago Silva | D | 31 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Inter Miami
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi(C) | M | 90 | 9.3 | 2 | — | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Telasco Segovia | M | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Yannick Bright | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Dayne St. Clair | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maximiliano Falcón | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Micael | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tadeo Allende | M | 89 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Rodrigo de Paul | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Germán Berterame | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Facundo Mura | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Allen | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alexander Shaw | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Pinter | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Morales | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Ruíz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Fray | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rocco Ríos Novo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mateo Silvetti | F | 45 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Luján | D | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Orlando City SC vs Inter Miami?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Orlando City SC to win against Inter Miami.
- What score did Fipster predict for Orlando City SC vs Inter Miami?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Orlando City SC 3–1 Inter Miami.
- What were the win probabilities for Orlando City SC vs Inter Miami?
- Fipster's model gave Orlando City SC a 35% chance of winning, Inter Miami a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.