Orlando City SC vs Houston Dynamo
Match recap
Houston Dynamo beat Orlando City SC 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Herrera scored for Houston Dynamo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.20 for Orlando City SC versus 1.26 for Houston Dynamo.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-0 Orlando City SC win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
Orlando City SC and Houston Dynamo face off in the MLS regular season round 8, with Orlando expected to leverage their attacking strengths to secure a solid home victory.
Match factors
Orlando's potent attacking trio
Ojeda, Griezmann, and Angulo form a high-scoring frontline with strong recent form and good home records.
Justin Ellis as key playmaker for Orlando
Ellis leads assists with 8 this season, showing strong connection with top scorers.
Guilherme's dual threat for Houston
Top scorer and assister for Houston, Guilherme's creativity and finishing are crucial.
Orlando missing key midfielders
Confirmed outs Ojeda and Spicer reduce midfield creativity and depth for Orlando.
Orlando's strong home scoring streak
Orlando has scored in last 5 home games, supporting predicted 2-0 win.
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season, where both teams have shown competitive form. Houston Dynamo currently sit 5th in their league with 45 points from 28 games, while Orlando City SC have demonstrated a strong home scoring streak in recent matches.
Key insights
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Leads Orlando in goals with 13, well above league average for attackers, key to their home scoring strength.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 22 apps, 0.59 goals/game
Antoine Griezmann
Orlando City SC
Exceptional scoring rate for a midfielder with 9 goals in 12 games, also a key playmaker with 5 assists.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 12 apps, 0.75 goals/game; 5 assists in 12 apps, 0.42 assists/game
- I
Iván Angulo Cortés
Orlando City SC
Good recent scoring streak with 5 goals in last 5 games, consistent starter contributing both offensively and defensively.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 28 apps, 0.21 goals/game
Justin Ellis
Orlando City SC
Leading assister with 8 assists, showing strong connection with top scorers and creative influence.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 20 apps, 0.4 assists/game
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Top scorer and assist provider for Houston with 14 goals and 6 assists, crucial to their attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals and 6 assists in 27 apps
Analysis
Orlando City SC's attacking trio of Martín Ojeda, Antoine Griezmann, and Iván Angulo Cortés have been in fine form, combining for a significant number of goals this season. Ojeda leads with 13 goals, Griezmann boasts an impressive 9 goals in just 12 games, and Angulo has been consistent with 6 goals, including a recent scoring streak. Justin Ellis's playmaking ability, with 8 assists, complements this frontline well. On the other hand, Houston's key player Guilherme remains a dual threat with 14 goals and 6 assists, but Orlando's home advantage and offensive depth are expected to prevail.
Key facts
- 1.Orlando City SC has scored in their last 5 home games.
- 2.Martín Ojeda leads Orlando with 13 goals this season.
- 3.Antoine Griezmann has 9 goals in 12 games, a remarkable rate for a midfielder.
- 4.Justin Ellis leads Orlando with 8 assists, showing strong playmaking.
- 5.Houston Dynamo sit 5th in their league with 45 points from 28 games.
- 6.Guilherme is Houston's top scorer and assister with 14 goals and 6 assists.
- 7.Orlando's predicted halftime lead is 1-0, consistent with the final 2-0 score.
Prediction
The forecast is a controlled 2-0 win for Orlando City SC, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The prediction aligns with Orlando's recent home scoring consistency and the statistical likelihood of this scoreline, suggesting a comfortable victory without conceding.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Orlando City SC
Away — Houston Dynamo
No standout top scorers flagged for Houston Dynamo
The verdict
Orlando City SC's attacking firepower and home form should see them through to a 2-0 win over Houston Dynamo. Expect a disciplined performance that builds on a halftime lead to secure all three points.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Atuesta
Yellow Card
Andrade
Yellow Card
Bond
Spicer
Samassékou
Negri
Herrera
Maurer
Yellow Card
Herrera
Taifi
Ojeda
Yellow Card
Ennali
Atuesta
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
Match Statistics
Orlando City SC
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 6R. JanssonD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaF
- 11TiagoF
- 14T. SpicerF
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 57IagoD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloM
Substitutes
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 21N. MillerD
- 22Justin EllisF
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 29T. Reid-BrownD
- 65Gustavo Caraballo DelgadoF
- 80I. GómezM
Houston Dynamo
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 10E. PonceF
- 11L. EnnaliM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 20GuilhermeF
- 21F. NegriD
- 31J. BondG
- 34A. ReschD
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Substitutes
- 1J. MaurerG
- 6ArturM
- 9O. LingrM
- 13S. VinesD
- 14D. HolmesM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 28E. SviatchenkoD
- 30A. BouzatM
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Marin | D | 90 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Iago Silva | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Robin Jansson(C) | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Martín Ojeda | F | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Braian Ojeda | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tyrese Spicer | F | 58 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Zakaria Taifi | M | 80 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Eduard Atuesta | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Maxime Crepeau | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Angulo | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Tiago Souza | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gustavo Caraballo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nolan Miller | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tahir Reid-Brown | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Colin Guske | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignacio Gómez | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harvey Sarajian | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Justin Ellis | F | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hector Herrera | M | 80 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Antonio Carlos(C) | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme | F | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6/7 |
| Diadié Samassékou | M | 63 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Agustin Resch | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Mateusz Bogusz | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Franco Negri | D | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lawrence Ennali | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Jonathan Bond | G | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nick Markanich | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Aliyu | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ondrej Lingr | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duane Holmes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erik Sviatchenko | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Artur | M | 27 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Sam Vines | D | 27 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Maurer | G | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Bouzat | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Orlando City SC vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Orlando City SC to win against Houston Dynamo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Orlando City SC vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Orlando City SC 2–0 Houston Dynamo.
- What were the win probabilities for Orlando City SC vs Houston Dynamo?
- Fipster's model gave Orlando City SC a 69% chance of winning, Houston Dynamo a 15% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 69% confidence — a high-confidence call.