Orlando City SC vs CF Montreal
Match recap
Orlando City SC beat CF Montreal 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. McGuire and Ojeda scored for Orlando City SC; Owusu replied for CF Montreal. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.57 for Orlando City SC versus 1.56 for CF Montreal.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Orlando City SC win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
Orlando City SC and CF Montreal face off in the fourth round of the 2026 regular season. With Orlando showing strong attacking form and Montreal looking to respond, this match promises some entertaining football.
Match factors
Orlando's attacking trio in strong form
Ojeda, Griezmann, and Angulo have high recent scoring rates and good chemistry, likely to exploit Montreal's defense
Orlando's superior home scoring record
Orlando averages 1.86 goals at home vs Montreal's 1.36 away, supporting predicted 3-0 scoreline
Griezmann's recent scoring and assist surge
Griezmann scored 4 goals and 2 assists in last 5 games, boosting Orlando's attack
Justin Ellis as key playmaker
Ellis leads Orlando in assists and key passes, linking midfield to attack effectively
No confirmed injuries for either team
Full squads available, no impact from missing key players
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season where Orlando City SC have demonstrated a potent home attack, while CF Montreal have struggled to keep clean sheets away from home. Historically, their encounters have been competitive, but Orlando holds a slight edge in wins.
Key insights
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Top scorer with 13 goals this season, excellent recent form with multiple multi-goal games.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 21 appearances, 0.62 goals/game
Antoine Griezmann
Orlando City SC
Creative midfielder with 8 goals and 4 assists in 11 games, strong home form with 5 goals in 6 home games.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 11 appearances, 0.73 goals/game
Justin Ellis
Orlando City SC
Leading assist provider with 8 assists in 19 games, key playmaker linking midfield to attack.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists in 19 appearances, 0.42 assists/game
Prince-Osei Owusu
CF Montreal
Top scorer and assist provider for Montreal with 15 goals and 6 assists, key offensive outlet.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals and 6 assists in 26 appearances
Analysis
Orlando City SC's attacking trio, including Martín Ojeda and Antoine Griezmann, have been in excellent form, combining for numerous goals and assists this season. Their home scoring average surpasses Montreal's away record, suggesting Orlando's dominance. Montreal's Prince-Osei Owusu remains a key threat but may find it tough against Orlando's solid defence and midfield creativity.
Key facts
- 1.Orlando City SC have won 8 of 20 head-to-head matches against CF Montreal.
- 2.The average goals per match between these teams is 2.5, with Orlando scoring 26 and Montreal 23 in total.
- 3.Martín Ojeda scored in this fixture, highlighting his offensive threat.
- 4.Prince-Osei Owusu also found the net, showing Montreal's fighting spirit.
- 5.Orlando averages 1.86 goals per home game compared to Montreal's 1.36 goals away.
- 6.Antoine Griezmann has 8 goals and 4 assists in 11 games this season.
- 7.Justin Ellis leads Orlando with 8 assists in 19 appearances.
- 8.No confirmed injuries for either team, so full squads are expected.
Prediction
Expect Orlando City SC to take an early lead and maintain control, with a halftime score of 2-0. The home side should extend their advantage to a 3-0 victory by fulltime, capitalising on their attacking momentum and Montreal's defensive vulnerabilities.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Orlando City SC
Away — CF Montreal
No standout top scorers flagged for CF Montreal
The verdict
Orlando City SC look set to continue their strong home performances with a comprehensive win over CF Montreal. Their attacking prowess and home advantage should prove decisive in this encounter.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
McGuire
Owusu
Assist: Carmona
Ojeda
Assist: Angulo
Atuesta
Yellow Card
Vera
Longstaff
Þórhallsson
McGuire
Atuesta
Pasalic
Synchuk
Morales
Dorsey
Ojeda
Match Statistics
Orlando City SC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaM
- 12Javier OteroG
- 13D. McGuireF
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 24G. DorseyD
- 57IagoD
- 77I. AnguloM
- 87Marco PasalicM
Substitutes
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 14T. SpicerF
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 21N. MillerD
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 29T. Reid-BrownD
- 34Y. TsukadaF
- 40T. HimesG
- 90Pedro LeaoF
CF Montreal
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3T. AvilésD
- 4B. VeraD
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 9P. OwusuF
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 17D. ÞórhallssonM
- 18H. SynchukM
- 22V. LoturiM
- 24E. MoralesD
- 31T. GillierG
Substitutes
- 1S. BrezaG
- 2J. NealD
- 6S. PietteM
- 10Iván JaimeM
- 14D. RíosF
- 19B. HidalgoD
- 29O. EscobarF
- 39Aleksandr GubogloD
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Ojeda(C) | M | 84 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Iván Angulo | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 2/4 |
| Braian Ojeda | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Duncan McGuire | F | 61 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adrián Marín | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Griffin Dorsey | D | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Iago Silva | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Brekalo | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Marco Pašalić | M | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Eduard Atuesta | M | 61 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tristan Himes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nolan Miller | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yutaro Tsukada | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Colin Guske | M | 29 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyrese Spicer | F | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Leão | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zakaria Taifi | M | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Tahir Reid-Brown | D | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
CF Montreal
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Longstaff | M | 57 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Thomas Gillier | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Prince-Osei Owusu(C) | F | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Wikelman Carmona | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/4 |
| Hennadiy Synchuk | M | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Tomás Avilés | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brayan Vera | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dagur Dan Þórhallsson | M | 57 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Loturi | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Efraín Morales | D | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Luca Petrasso | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sebastian Breza | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jalen Neal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Aleksandr Guboglo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Rios | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bode Hidalgo | D | 45 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Iván Jaime | M | 33 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4/4 |
| Samuel Piette | M | 33 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Noah Streit | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Olger Escobar | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Orlando City SC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Orlando City SC to win against CF Montreal.
- What score did Fipster predict for Orlando City SC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Orlando City SC 3–0 CF Montreal.
- What were the win probabilities for Orlando City SC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster's model gave Orlando City SC a 91% chance of winning, CF Montreal a 4% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 91% confidence — a high-confidence call.