Nottingham Forest vs Burnley
Match recap
Nottingham Forest beat Burnley 4–1 in their Premier League fixture. Gibbs-White, Gibbs-White, Gibbs-White, Igor Jesus, and Igor Jesus scored for Nottingham Forest; Flemming and Flemming replied for Burnley. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.19 for Nottingham Forest versus 0.36 for Burnley. Nottingham Forest sit 16th in the Premier League table while Burnley are 19th.
Analysis
As Nottingham Forest prepare to host Burnley, the stage is set for an intriguing clash with Forest expected to edge out a 2-1 victory. With recent form and squad availability in mind, this match promises some entertaining football at the City Ground.
Nottingham Forest currently sit 16th in the league with 36 points, while Burnley struggle near the bottom at 19th with 20 points. Historically, Burnley have had the upper hand in head-to-heads, but recent performances and injuries suggest a shift in momentum.
Forest's midfielder Morgan Gibbs-White is in scintillating form, netting 5 goals in his last 5 games, making him a constant threat. Burnley, missing their top scorer Zian Flemming due to injury and key defender Kieran Walker suspended, face a tough challenge. Forest's midfield duo of Anderson and Hutchinson excel in passing accuracy and chance creation, likely to exploit Burnley's weakened defence.
Prediction
Given the attacking prowess of Forest and Burnley's defensive vulnerabilities, a 2-1 home win for Nottingham Forest is the most probable outcome. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0, with a total of around 4 cards in the match, reflecting a competitive but controlled game.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Gibbs-White's Form vs Burnley Defense
Gibbs-White's recent scoring streak exploits Burnley's weak defense, increasing home win chances.
Burnley Missing Key Scorer Flemming
Flemming's injury reduces Burnley's attacking threat, favoring Nottingham Forest's defense.
Nottingham Forest's Midfield Passing Dominance
Anderson and Hutchinson exceed league passing averages, enabling better chance creation.
Nottingham Forest's Home Scoring Improvement
Forest scores more goals in recent home games, supporting predicted 2-1 home win.
Burnley Defensive Suspension Impact
Walker’s suspension weakens Burnley’s defense, likely exploited by Forest's attackers.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Nottingham Forest's recent scoring surge and Burnley's injury woes set the scene for a home victory. Expect a lively encounter with Forest edging it 2-1, much to the delight of their fans at the City Ground.
- Nottingham Forest are 16th with 36 points from 33 games (W9 D9 L15).
- Burnley are 19th with 20 points from 33 games (W4 D8 L21).
- In 14 head-to-head meetings, Burnley lead with 6 wins to Forest's 3, with 5 draws.
- Morgan Gibbs-White scored 3 goals in this fixture and has 5 goals in last 5 games.
- Zian Flemming is Burnley's top scorer with 8 goals but is injured for this match.
- Kieran Walker is suspended for Burnley, weakening their defence.
- Nottingham Forest's midfielders Anderson and Hutchinson have high passing accuracy and assist rates.
- The predicted total cards count for the match is 4, indicating a fairly disciplined game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Nottingham Forest
Away — Burnley
No standout top scorers flagged for Burnley
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Murillo
Flemming
Assist: Hartman
Flemming
Assist: Hartman
Bakwa
Gibbs-White
Edwards
Gibbs-White
Assist: Hutchinson
Florentino
Yellow Card
Ugochukwu
Wood
Gibbs-White
Assist: Yates
Walker
Yellow Card
Florentino
Anthony
Flemming
Hutchinson
Gibbs-White
Igor Jesus
Assist: Domínguez
Igor Jesus
Assist: Domínguez
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | -10 | 45 |
| 16 |  Nottingham Forest | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | -3 | 44 |
| 17 |  Tottenham | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | -9 | 41 |
| 18 |  West Ham | 38 | 10 | 9 | 19 | -19 | 39 |
| 19 |  Burnley | 38 | 4 | 10 | 24 | -37 | 22 |
| 20 |  Wolves | 38 | 3 | 11 | 24 | -41 | 20 |
Match Statistics
Nottingham Forest
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3N. WilliamsD
- 5MurilloD
- 6I. SangaréM
- 8E. AndersonM
- 10M. Gibbs-WhiteM
- 11C. WoodF
- 21O. HutchinsonM
- 26M. SelsG
- 29D. BakwaM
- 31N. MilenkovićD
- 34O. AinaD
Substitutes
- 4MoratoD
- 9T. AwoniyiF
- 16N. DomínguezM
- 19Igor JesusF
- 22R. YatesM
- 23JairD
- 24J. McAteeM
- 25L. NetzD
- 27S. OrtegaG
Burnley
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. DúbravkaG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 3Q. HartmanD
- 5M. EstèveD
- 8L. UgochukwuM
- 10M. EdwardsM
- 11J. AnthonyM
- 16FlorentinoM
- 18H. EkdalD
- 19Z. FlemmingF
- 20J. Ward-ProwseM
Substitutes
- 4J. WorrallD
- 7J. Bruun LarsenF
- 9L. FosterF
- 12B. HumphreysD
- 13M. WeißG
- 17L. TchaounaF
- 27A. BrojaF
- 29J. LaurentM
- 31M. TrésorF
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Gibbs-White(C) | M | 89 | 10.0 | 3 | — | 5 | 3 | — | 0/2 |
| Neco Williams | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Elliot Anderson | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| Ibrahim Sangaré | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Murillo | D | 42 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 88 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Ola Aina | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Matz Sels | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dilane Bakwa | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Chris Wood | F | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Nikola Milenković | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Taiwo Awoniyi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Netz | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James McAtee | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Ortega | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 45 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Nicolás Domínguez | M | 10 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ryan Yates | M | 14 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jair | D | 48 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Morato | D | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Burnley
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zian Flemming | F | 84 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Marcus Edwards | M | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Quilindschy Hartman | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jaidon Anthony | M | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| James Ward-Prowse | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Lesley Ugochukwu | M | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Florentino Luís | M | 83 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| Maxime Estève | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kyle Walker(C) | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hjalmar Ekdal | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Dúbravka | G | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mike Trésor | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Weiss | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Worrall | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bashir Humphreys | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Laurent | M | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Loum Tchaouna | F | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armando Broja | F | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lyle Foster | F | 26 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |