Norwich vs Portsmouth
Portsmouth sneak narrow win at Norwich
Milovanović's penalty settles a tight Championship clash.
Portsmouth edged out Norwich 1-0 thanks to a penalty converted by M. Milovanović just after the break. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction favouring a Norwich win, the visitors defied expectations with a slender victory. It was a tight affair with the solitary spot-kick proving decisive.
Outcome probability
Norwich and Portsmouth, both struggling near the foot of the table, face off in what promises to be a competitive match. With Norwich just a point ahead, this clash could be crucial for momentum.
Match factors
Norwich missing key midfielders and attacker
Norwich confirmed out players include key midfielder K. McLean and attacker M. Touré, weakening attacking options
Norwich defense led by high passing defender J. Córdoba
J. Córdoba's passing volume and accuracy exceed league defender averages, aiding build-up play
Portsmouth midfielders E. Adams and A. Segecic provide creative spark
Both players show above average tackling and assist contributions, key for breaking down Norwich defense
Norwich scoring form inconsistent but capable at home
Norwich average 2 goals per home game but have conceded in all recent matches, indicating open play
Defensive solidity from B. Chrisene and J. Stacey for Norwich
Both defenders have tackle rates and duel win percentages above league averages, crucial to limit Portsmouth attacks
The context
This is the 11th round of the regular season in league 40, where Norwich sit 19th with 9 points and Portsmouth 20th with 8 points. Their recent head-to-head meetings have been fairly balanced, with Portsmouth holding a slight edge in wins.
Key insights
- J
J. Córdoba
Norwich
J. Córdoba's passing volume and accuracy exceed league defender averages, aiding Norwich's build-up play from the back.
Championship 26/27556 total passes, 81% passing accuracy in 9 games
- B
B. Chrisene
Norwich
B. Chrisene's tackling and duel win rates are well above league averages, providing defensive solidity.
Championship 26/272.63 tackles per game, 62.7% duels won in 8 games
- E
E. Adams
Portsmouth
E. Adams offers a creative spark with strong tackling and recent goal contributions, key to breaking down Norwich's defence.
Championship 26/272.25 tackles per game, 61.8% duels won, recent goal scored
- A
A. Segecic
Portsmouth
A. Segecic's recent high rating and contributions in goals and assists make him a key playmaker for Portsmouth.
Championship 26/278.2 rating in last home game, goals and assists recently
Analysis
Portsmouth have won two of their last five encounters against Norwich, who have managed one win and two draws. The average goals per match in these meetings is 2.8, suggesting a moderately open game. Norwich's defence, led by J. Córdoba with his impressive passing accuracy and volume, will be key to controlling the game. Meanwhile, Portsmouth's midfield creativity, spearheaded by E. Adams and A. Segecic, could pose a threat. Norwich's defensive duo B. Chrisene and J. Stacey also bring solidity, which may prove decisive in limiting Portsmouth's attacks. Norwich's scoring form at home is inconsistent but capable, averaging two goals per game while conceding regularly, indicating an open contest.
Key facts
- 1.In 5 head-to-head meetings, Portsmouth have 2 wins, Norwich 1, and 2 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals per game, indicating moderate scoring.
- 3.Norwich are 19th in the league with 9 points from 9 games (3 wins, 0 draws, 6 losses).
- 4.Portsmouth are 20th with 8 points from 8 games (2 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses).
- 5.J. Córdoba leads Norwich defence with 81% passing accuracy and 556 passes in 9 games.
- 6.Portsmouth's E. Adams and A. Segecic contribute creatively with tackles and assists.
- 7.Norwich defenders B. Chrisene and J. Stacey have above-average tackle and duel win rates.
Prediction
We expect Norwich to take a 1-0 lead into halftime and hold on for a 2-1 victory by full time. The match is likely to be competitive with around four cards shown, reflecting the intensity of this relegation battle.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Norwich
Away — Portsmouth
The verdict
This fixture should provide an entertaining tussle between two sides desperate for points. Norwich's slight edge in form and home advantage should see them through, but Portsmouth will not make it easy.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 20:41 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Chrisene
Milovanović
Penalty
Milovanović
Yellow Card
Ben Slimane
Brooks
Mohamed
Kavuma McQueen
Yellow Card
Schwartau
Yellow Card
Kavuma McQueen
Milovanović
Schwartau
Pack
Yongwa
Yellow Card
Kvistgaarden
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 25 |
| 11 |  Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 |
| 12 |  Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +1 | 18 |
| 13 |  Norwich | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 |  Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
Match Statistics
Norwich
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3J. StaceyD
- 7P. MattssonM
- 11A. BrooksM
- 14B. ChriseneD
- 15Ruairi McConvilleD
- 16Jacob WrightM
- 20A. Ben SlimaneM
- 24J. MakamaF
- 29O. SchwartauM
- 32D. GrimshawG
- 33J. CórdobaD
Substitutes
- 6H. DarlingD
- 12L. MahovoD
- 13D. YongwaD
- 25P. MaghomaM
- 26S. FieldM
- 30M. KvistgaardenF
- 35K. FisherD
- 40C. AnsenG
- 46E. Mundle-SmithF
Portsmouth
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1N. SchmidG
- 5R. PooleD
- 7M. PackM
- 10A. SegecicM
- 11A. KamaraM
- 16J. MeghomaD
- 22Z. SwansonD
- 25R. Kavuma McQueenM
- 29M. MilovanovićF
- 37I. MohamedM
- 55M. DiaD
Substitutes
- 9C. BishopF
- 17T. ShadeF
- 19R. SheinM
- 24T. DevlinM
- 27O. BaileyM
- 30B. KillipG
- 31D. BielicaG
- 32E. KennyM
- 38E. AdamsM
Norwich
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Chrisene | D | 46 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruairi McConville | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Makama | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| A. Ben Slimane | M | 57 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Córdoba | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Stacey | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Maghoma | M | 33 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| A. Brooks | M | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| P. Mattsson | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| L. Mahovo | D | 33 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Kvistgaarden | F | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Grimshaw | G | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Yongwa | D | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Schwartau | M | 73 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Jacob Wright | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Mundle-Smith | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ansen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Field | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Darling | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Fisher | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Portsmouth
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Poole | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Dia | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Mohamed | M | 60 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Pack | M | 80 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Adams | M | 30 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Meghoma | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| N. Schmid | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Bailey | M | 20 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Z. Swanson | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Devlin | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Segecic | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Shade | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Milovanović | F | 71 | 6.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Kamara | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| R. Kavuma McQueen | M | 70 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 4/9 |
| R. Shein | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Kenny | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bielica | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Killip | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Bishop | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Norwich vs Portsmouth?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Norwich to win against Portsmouth.
- What score did Fipster predict for Norwich vs Portsmouth?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Norwich 2–1 Portsmouth.
- What were the win probabilities for Norwich vs Portsmouth?
- Fipster's model gave Norwich a 68% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 16% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 68% confidence — a high-confidence call.