Newcastle vs Brighton
Match recap
Newcastle beat Brighton 3–1 in their Premier League fixture. Osula, Burn, and Barnes scored for Newcastle; Hinshelwood replied for Brighton. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.27 for Newcastle versus 1.64 for Brighton. Newcastle sit 12th in the Premier League table while Brighton are 8th.
Analysis
Newcastle host Brighton in what promises to be a closely fought Premier League encounter. Both teams have shown resilience this season, and with key players in and out, the match is poised for a tactical battle rather than a goal-fest.
Historically, Newcastle and Brighton have met 20 times with a fairly even split: Newcastle winning 4, Brighton 7, and 9 draws. Brighton currently sit higher in the league table, but Newcastle's home advantage at St James' Park cannot be underestimated.
Brighton's Danny Welbeck leads the scoring charts for his side with 13 goals, making him a significant threat. Newcastle's defence, marshalled by Malick Thiaw, will need to be at their best to contain him. Injuries to key midfielders like Bruno Guimarães for Newcastle and defensive absences for Brighton could influence the flow of the game, likely resulting in a cautious approach from both sides.
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-1 draw, with a goalless first half expected before both teams find the net in the second. The match is also predicted to see around four yellow cards, reflecting the competitive nature of the fixture. Confidence in this outcome stands at 35%, acknowledging the tight margins between these two sides.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Bruno Guimarães' Injury Could Weaken Newcastle Midfield
Bruno's questionable status due to ankle injury may reduce Newcastle's creativity and defensive stability.
Danny Welbeck's Scoring Form Gives Brighton Edge
Welbeck's 13 goals and recent scoring streak provide Brighton a key attacking threat against Newcastle's defense.
Malick Thiaw's Defensive Solidity Key for Newcastle
Thiaw's high duel win rate and tackling make him vital to contain Brighton's attackers.
Brighton Missing Key Defenders and Midfielders
Multiple injuries and suspensions in Brighton's defense and midfield could impact their defensive organization.
Newcastle's Home Scoring Streak Contrasted by Defensive Vulnerability
Newcastle scores consistently at home but concedes frequently, suggesting an open game likely.
Key Takeaways
In summary, expect a well-contested match with both teams sharing points. Newcastle's home form and Brighton's attacking prowess should cancel each other out, leading to a draw that keeps the Premier League race interesting for both sides.
- In 20 meetings, Newcastle won 4, Brighton 7, with 9 draws.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.0 goals, aligning with the predicted 1-1 scoreline.
- Brighton currently sit 6th with 50 points; Newcastle are 14th with 42 points.
- Danny Welbeck is Brighton's top scorer with 13 goals this season.
- Malick Thiaw boasts a 63.7% duel win rate, key for Newcastle's defence.
- Bruno Guimarães' injury may reduce Newcastle's midfield creativity.
- The predicted total of 4 yellow cards suggests a competitive match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Newcastle
Away — Brighton
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Osula
Assist: Murphy
Wieffer
Veltman
Yellow Card
Burn
Assist: Guimarães
Mitoma
Yellow Card
Burn
Yellow Card
Hinshelwood
Assist: Welbeck
Willock
Murphy
Osula
Baleba
Welbeck
Unknown
Tonali
Yellow Card
Wissa
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Hinshelwood
Guimarães
van Hecke
Yellow Card
Barnes
Match Statistics
Newcastle
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1N. PopeG
- 4S. BotmanD
- 7JoelintonM
- 8S. TonaliM
- 12M. ThiawD
- 18W. OsulaF
- 23J. MurphyM
- 28J. WillockM
- 33D. BurnD
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
- 67L. MileyD
Substitutes
- 2K. TrippierD
- 3L. HallD
- 9Y. WissaF
- 10A. GordonF
- 11H. BarnesM
- 20A. ElangaF
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 32A. RamsdaleG
- 41J. RamseyM
Brighton
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 11Y. MintehM
- 13J. HinshelwoodM
- 17C. BalebaM
- 18D. WelbeckF
- 21O. BoscagliD
- 22K. MitomaM
- 24F. KadıoğluD
- 27M. WiefferD
- 30P. GroßM
Substitutes
- 3IgorD
- 5L. DunkD
- 10G. RutterF
- 19C. KostoulasF
- 23J. SteeleG
- 26Y. AyariM
- 29M. De CuyperD
- 33M. O'RileyM
- 34J. VeltmanD
Newcastle
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Osula | F | 68 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Sven Botman | D | 97 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Nick Pope | G | 97 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Murphy | M | 68 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Bruno Guimarães(C) | M | 91 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Dan Burn | D | 97 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Sandro Tonali | M | 97 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Lewis Miley | D | 97 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joelinton | M | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| Malick Thiaw | D | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Joe Willock | M | 68 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kieran Trippier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Ramsey | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Aaron Ramsdale | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Gordon | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anthony Elanga | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Woltemade | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harvey Barnes | M | 29 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Lewis Hall | D | 29 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Yoane Wissa | F | 29 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Brighton
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hinshelwood | M | 88 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | — | — |
| Carlos Baleba | M | 80 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Danny Welbeck(C) | F | 80 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Bart Verbruggen | G | 97 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mats Wieffer | D | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Olivier Boscagli | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pascal Groß | M | 97 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Kaoru Mitoma | M | 97 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Yankuba Minteh | M | 97 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Ferdi Kadıoğlu | D | 97 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Matt O'Riley | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Júlio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jason Steele | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yasin Ayari | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Georginio Rutter | F | 17 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Charalampos Kostoulas | F | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Joël Veltman | D | 63 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Maxim De Cuyper | D | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lewis Dunk | D | 9 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |