Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Match recap
Bournemouth beat Newcastle 2–1 in their Premier League fixture. Osula scored for Newcastle; Tavernier and Truffert replied for Bournemouth. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.59 for Newcastle versus 2.99 for Bournemouth. Newcastle sit 12th in the Premier League table while Bournemouth are 6th.
Analysis
As the Premier League season nears its climax, Newcastle host Bournemouth in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams have shown resilience this season, but Newcastle's home advantage and recent attacking form give them the edge.
Historically, Newcastle and Bournemouth have shared honours evenly with five wins each and eight draws in 18 meetings. Bournemouth currently sit higher in the league at 9th, while Newcastle are 14th, but home advantage and recent player form could tip the scales.
Newcastle's Anthony Gordon has been in fine fettle, netting three goals in his last five games and boasting a strong home scoring rate. Meanwhile, Bournemouth's main threat comes from Antoine Semenyo, who has scored 10 goals this season. Injuries to key creative midfielders on both sides, including Newcastle's Bruno Guimarães and Lewis Miley, and Bournemouth's Marcus Tavernier, may limit assist potential, making individual moments of brilliance crucial.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 home win for Newcastle, with Gordon likely to be involved in the goals. The match is expected to be competitive, with a total of around four cards, reflecting the intensity of the battle. Newcastle's defensive solidity, led by Malick Thiaw, should help them edge out Bournemouth in this tight affair.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Newcastle's creative midfield weakened by injuries
Bruno Guimarães and Lewis Miley are injured, reducing creative options and assist potential.
Malick Thiaw's defensive form key to Newcastle's solidity
Thiaw's high passing accuracy and duel success can disrupt Bournemouth's attacks.
Anthony Gordon's recent scoring form boosts Newcastle's attack
Gordon's 3 goals in last 5 matches and strong home scoring rate favor Newcastle's goal threat.
Bournemouth's Semenyo poses main attacking threat
Semenyo's 10 goals and recent form make him Bournemouth's key player to watch.
Bournemouth's injury to key midfielder Tavernier may reduce creativity
Tavernier's absence could limit Bournemouth's assist potential and midfield control.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Newcastle's home form and key player contributions give them the upper hand in this fixture. Bournemouth will pose a threat, but the Magpies are poised to secure a vital 2-1 victory to boost their league standing.
- Newcastle and Bournemouth have an equal head-to-head record: 5 wins each and 8 draws in 18 matches.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, aligning with the predicted 2-1 scoreline.
- Bournemouth currently rank 9th in the league, Newcastle 14th, despite prediction favouring Newcastle.
- Anthony Gordon has scored 3 goals in his last 5 games, showing strong home form.
- Malick Thiaw boasts a 89% passing accuracy and 63.5% duels won, key to Newcastle's defence.
- Bournemouth's Antoine Semenyo leads their scoring with 10 goals this season.
- Injuries to creative midfielders Bruno Guimarães and Lewis Miley weaken Newcastle's assist potential.
- Marcus Tavernier's injury may reduce Bournemouth's creativity in midfield.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Newcastle
Away — Bournemouth
No standout top scorers flagged for Bournemouth
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Tavernier
Assist: Rayan
Hall
Christie
Yellow Card
Tavernier
Yellow Card
Ramsey
Elanga
Christie
Kroupi
Osula
Goal confirmed
Livramento
Botman
Yellow Card
Rayan
Murphy
Yellow Card
Scott
Yellow Card
Truffert
Tonali
Evanilson
Tavernier
Evanilson
Tavernier
Petrović
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | +44 | 85 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | +10 | 60 |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | +4 | 57 |
| 7 |  Sunderland | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | -6 | 54 |
| 11 |  Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | -4 | 52 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | -2 | 49 |
| 13 |  Everton | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | -3 | 49 |
Match Statistics
Newcastle
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3L. HallD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 8S. TonaliM
- 11H. BarnesF
- 12M. ThiawD
- 18W. OsulaF
- 20A. ElangaF
- 21T. LivramentoD
- 32A. RamsdaleG
- 41J. RamseyM
- 67L. MileyM
Substitutes
- 1N. PopeG
- 2K. TrippierD
- 9Y. WissaF
- 23J. MurphyM
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 28J. WillockM
- 33D. BurnD
- 37A. MurphyD
- 39Bruno GuimarãesM
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 3A. TruffertD
- 5M. SenesiD
- 8A. ScottM
- 9EvanilsonF
- 10R. ChristieM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 22E. KroupiM
- 23J. HillD
- 37RayanM
Substitutes
- 7D. BrooksM
- 11B. DoakF
- 12T. AdamsM
- 15A. SmithD
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 21A. AdliF
- 26E. ÜnalF
- 27A. TóthM
- 29C. MandasG
Newcastle
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Osula | F | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Sven Botman | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lewis Miley | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valentino Livramento | D | 74 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sandro Tonali(C) | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Anthony Elanga | F | 62 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Lewis Hall | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Harvey Barnes | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/4 |
| Malick Thiaw | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Jacob Ramsey | M | 62 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Aaron Ramsdale | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alex Murphy | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Pope | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yoane Wissa | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Willock | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Guimarães | M | 28 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Kieran Trippier | D | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Woltemade | F | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Murphy | M | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Dan Burn | D | 16 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
Bournemouth
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Scott | M | 90 | 8.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Marcos Senesi | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| James Hill | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Rayan | M | 78 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Marcus Tavernier | M | 89 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3/5 |
| Ryan Christie(C) | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Adrien Truffert | D | 90 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Álex Jiménez | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Eli Junior Kroupi | M | 66 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Đorđe Petrović | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Evanilson | F | 89 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Amine Adli | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christos Mandas | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bafodé Diakité | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Smith | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Tóth | M | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ben Gannon-Doak | F | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Enes Unal | F | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Adams | M | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Brooks | M | 24 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |