Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Manzambi's strike sinks Newcastle
Aston Villa snatch a narrow win at St James' Park.
J. Manzambi's first-half goal was enough to secure a 1-0 victory for Aston Villa against Newcastle in the Premier League. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 4-1 home win, the visitors defied expectations with a disciplined performance to claim all three points.
Outcome probability
Newcastle and Aston Villa face off in the seventh round of the regular season, with the Magpies looking to extend their strong home scoring streak against the Villans.
Match factors
Newcastle's attacking midfield depth
Newcastle's midfielders like Willock and Barnes combine goal and assist threat, enhancing attacking options
Home scoring streak for Newcastle
Newcastle has scored in all last 5 games overall and 3 home games, supporting predicted 4 goals
Anthony Elanga's strong recent form
Elanga has 2 goals in 3 appearances with high minutes, indicating good scoring momentum
John McGinn's creative influence for Aston Villa
McGinn leads assists for Villa with 2 in 6 games, key to unlocking Newcastle's defense
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans
The context
Newcastle currently hold a better league standing and goal difference than Aston Villa this season. Historically, their head-to-head record is fairly balanced with Newcastle winning 7 of 20 meetings, Aston Villa 6, and 7 draws, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Key insights
Joseph Willock
Newcastle
Willock combines goal and assist threat, enhancing Newcastle's attacking options.
Premier League 26/272 goals in 5 appearances, 57.4 avg mins/game
Anthony Junior Elanga
Newcastle
Elanga's strong recent form with 2 goals in 3 games indicates good scoring momentum.
Premier League 26/272 goals in 3 appearances, 78.3 avg mins/game
Harvey Barnes
Newcastle
Barnes is a key playmaker with 2 assists in 5 games and a high home assist rate.
Premier League 26/272 assists in 5 appearances, 89.8 avg mins/game
John McGinn
Aston Villa
McGinn leads assists for Villa and is crucial to unlocking Newcastle's defence.
Premier League 26/272 assists in 6 appearances, 87.7 avg mins/game
Analysis
Newcastle's attacking midfield depth, featuring players like Joseph Willock and Harvey Barnes, provides a significant threat with combined goal and assist contributions. Anthony Junior Elanga's recent form, scoring twice in three games, adds to their offensive firepower. Aston Villa's creative influence comes from John McGinn, who leads their assists tally, but the Villans may struggle to contain Newcastle's home scoring streak, having scored in all their last five games overall and three at home. Both teams have full squads available, ensuring tactical plans can be executed without disruption.
Key facts
- 1.Newcastle have a better league standing and goal difference than Aston Villa this season.
- 2.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Newcastle have won 7, Aston Villa 6, with 7 draws.
- 3.Newcastle have scored in all their last 5 games overall and 3 home games this season.
- 4.Anthony Junior Elanga has scored 2 goals in 3 appearances this season for Newcastle.
- 5.Harvey Barnes leads Newcastle with 2 assists in 5 games, showing strong creative form.
- 6.John McGinn is Aston Villa's top assister with 2 assists in 6 games.
- 7.No confirmed injuries for either team, both squads are at full strength.
Prediction
The prediction favours a Newcastle home win with a halftime lead of 2-0 and a fulltime scoreline of 4-1. The match is expected to be competitive but ultimately controlled by the Magpies, who are likely to capitalize on their attacking strengths and maintain defensive solidity. The game may see around four cards, reflecting a moderately physical contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Newcastle
Away — Aston Villa
The verdict
Expect Newcastle to assert their dominance early and keep Aston Villa at bay, securing a comfortable 4-1 victory. The Magpies' blend of attacking talent and home form should prove decisive in this encounter.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:19 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Joelinton
Yellow Card
Botman
Yellow Card
João Gomes
Yellow Card
Alysson Edward
Yellow Card
Manzambi
Assist: João Gomes
Alysson Edward
Nico González
Yellow Card
Wissa
Yellow Card
Willock
Fernandez-Pardo
Manzambi
Buendía
João Gomes
Wan-Bissaka
Osula
Yellow Card
Thiaw
Yellow Card
Joelinton
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 21 |
| 8 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 |  Hull City | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 |  Leeds | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | +1 | 11 |
| 12 |  Newcastle | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 13 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
Match Statistics
Newcastle
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3L. HallD
- 4S. BotmanD
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 7JoelintonM
- 9Y. WissaF
- 11H. BarnesM
- 12M. ThiawD
- 20M. Fernandez-PardoM
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 28J. WillockM
- 67L. MileyD
Substitutes
- 1N. PopeG
- 5F. SchärD
- 8A. BambaM
- 10W. OsulaF
- 14Sean SteurM
- 17B. TouréF
- 23J. MurphyM
- 33D. BurnD
- 37A. DedićD
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1Z. SuzukiG
- 2M. CashD
- 3V. LindelöfD
- 5T. MingsD
- 8B. KamaraM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 11N. JacksonF
- 29A. Wan-BissakaD
- 35João GomesM
- 44J. ManzambiM
- 47Alysson EdwardM
Substitutes
- 4T. Harwood-BellisD
- 6R. BarkleyM
- 7J. McGinnM
- 14Pau TorresD
- 19I. MbayeF
- 26L. BogardeM
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 39Brian MadjoF
- 40M. BizotG
Newcastle
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Willock | M | 56 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Nico González | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Joelinton | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| H. Barnes | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| M. Thiaw | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Horníček | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Botman | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| L. Hall | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/4 |
| L. Miley | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Y. Wissa | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 7 | — | — | 1/2 |
| B. Touré | F | 34 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| W. Osula | F | 34 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | M | 56 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| A. Bamba | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Steur | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Murphy | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Burn | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Pope | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Dedić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Schär | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Aston Villa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Manzambi | M | 72 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| João Gomes | M | 72 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| V. Lindelöf | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Cash | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| A. Wan-Bissaka | D | 77 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Barkley | M | 18 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| B. Kamara | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Pau Torres | D | 13 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Goretzka | M | 18 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. McGinn | M | 44 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| I. Mbaye | F | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 3/4 |
| Alysson Edward | M | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| T. Mings | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Buendía | M | 72 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Z. Suzuki | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Jackson | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| Brian Madjo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Bizot | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Harwood-Bellis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bogarde | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Newcastle to win against Aston Villa.
- What score did Fipster predict for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Newcastle 4–1 Aston Villa.
- What were the win probabilities for Newcastle vs Aston Villa?
- Fipster's model gave Newcastle a 75% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 12% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 75% confidence — a high-confidence call.