New York Red Bulls vs San Diego
Red Bulls storm past San Diego in dominant display
A quickfire hat-trick set the tone for New York's commanding 4-1 victory.
New York Red Bulls put on a dazzling show with J. Hall, D. Padelford, and J. Ruvalcaba all scoring in the first half to build a commanding lead. Despite C. Bakambu's effort for San Diego after the break, the visitors never truly threatened, and E. Choupo-Moting sealed the emphatic win deep into stoppage time. This result was a surprise, defying Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a San Diego win.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, New York Red Bulls face San Diego in what promises to be a tightly contested affair. Both teams have shown flashes of attacking prowess, but the visitors look poised to snatch the points.
Match factors
San Diego's attacking duo in strong form
Ingvartsen and Dreyer lead San Diego's attack with combined 23 goals and 11 assists, posing a major threat
Julian Hall's scoring consistency
Hall's 10 goals and strong away scoring form give NY Red Bulls a reliable scoring option
NY Red Bulls' creative midfielders underperforming recently
Key assisters like Cowell and Forsberg have no assists in last 5 games, limiting creativity
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from absences expected
The context
San Diego currently sit 12th in the league with 32 points from 27 games, reflecting a mixed campaign of eight wins, eight draws, and eleven losses. New York Red Bulls' league position isn't specified, but their recent form and home advantage will be tested against a San Diego side eager to climb the table.
Key insights
Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen
San Diego
Leading scorer with 12 goals and strong recent form, scoring in last five games.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals in 23 apps, 0.52 goals/game
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Top assister with 11 assists and 11 goals, key playmaker and goal threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals and 11 assists in 26 apps, 0.42 goals/game
Julian Hall
New York Red Bulls
Consistent scorer with 10 goals and strong away scoring record.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 24 apps, 0.42 goals/game
Cade Cowell
New York Red Bulls
Top assister with 5 assists but no assists in last five games, indicating recent creative dip.
Major League Soccer 26/275 assists in 23 apps, 0.22 assists/game
Analysis
San Diego's attacking duo, Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen and Anders Laustrup Dreyer, have been in fine form, combining for 23 goals and 11 assists this season. Ingvartsen leads with 12 goals and has been particularly clinical recently, scoring in five consecutive matches. Dreyer complements him well, contributing 11 assists and 11 goals himself. On the other side, New York's Julian Hall remains a reliable threat with 10 goals and strong away scoring form, though his teammates' creativity has dipped lately, with key assisters like Cade Cowell failing to provide assists in the last five games. Both teams have full squads available, so no injury concerns should affect the outcome.
Key facts
- 1.San Diego are 12th in the league with 32 points from 27 games (W8 D8 L11).
- 2.San Diego's Marcus Højriis Ingvartsen leads with 12 goals in 23 appearances.
- 3.Anders Laustrup Dreyer has 11 goals and 11 assists this season for San Diego.
- 4.Julian Hall is New York Red Bulls' top scorer with 10 goals in 24 appearances.
- 5.Cade Cowell has 5 assists but none in the last five games, indicating a recent creative dip.
- 6.No confirmed injuries for either team; full squads available.
- 7.San Diego's 1-2 away win is the most probable outcome and scoreline.
- 8.The halftime score of 0-1 suggests San Diego will start strongly.
Prediction
The prediction sees San Diego taking an early lead by halftime, going 1-0 up, and ultimately winning 2-1. This aligns with the statistical probabilities favouring an away win and the most likely scoreline within that outcome. Expect a tight match where San Diego's attacking edge and recent form give them the slight upper hand over New York Red Bulls.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York Red Bulls
Away — San Diego
The verdict
In what should be an entertaining contest, San Diego's sharp attack and consistent goal-scoring form are expected to outlast New York Red Bulls' efforts. While the home side will push hard, the visitors' early lead and resilience should see them through to a narrow victory.
Prediction generated 1 Oct 2026, 01:34 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Hall
Assist: Ruvalcaba
Padelford
Assist: Cowell
Ruvalcaba
Assist: Donkor
Tverskov
Yellow Card
Bazán
Yellow Card
Dreyer
Missed Penalty
Tverskov
Ingvartsen
Duah
Yellow Card
Bakambu
Assist: Dreyer
Murphy
Che
Pirani
Sofo
Cowell
Donkor
Achouri
Ruvalcaba
Padelford
Yellow Card
Sargeant
Yellow Card
Padelford
Godoy
Choupo-Moting
Assist: Dos Santos
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | +31 | 51 |
| 11 |  Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 |  Austin | 28 | 7 | 10 | 11 | -15 | 31 |
Match Statistics
New York Red Bulls
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2J. CheD
- 7C. CowellF
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 12D. NealisD
- 14J. BazánD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 37M. SofoM
- 48R. DonkorM
- 59D. PadelfordD
Substitutes
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 8D. RuízM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 26T. ParkerD
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 60S. KoneM
- 77J. McCarthyG
San Diego
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 5Kieran SargeantD
- 6J. TverskovM
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 10A. DreyerF
- 12Gabriel PiraniM
- 20A. GodoyM
- 26M. DuahD
- 32I. MurphyD
- 33O. VerhoevenD
- 99E. AchouriF
Substitutes
- 3D. ÞórhallssonD
- 8O. ValakariM
- 13P. SisniegaG
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 70A. AlvaradoF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
- 94C. BakambuF
- 97C. McVeyD
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ruvalcaba | F | 81 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1/3 |
| J. Hall | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 7 | 6 | 2 | 1/4 |
| E. Choupo-Moting | F | 19 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| R. Donkor | M | 71 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| C. Cowell | F | 71 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0/2 |
| E. Horvath | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Padelford | D | 88 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Che | D | 61 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Dos Santos | D | 2 | 6.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Kone | M | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Marshall-Rutty | D | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Mehmeti | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Nealis | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| E. Forsberg | M | 19 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Parker | D | 29 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Sofo | M | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| J. Bazán | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Ruíz | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. McCarthy | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Dreyer | F | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | — |
| C. Bakambu | F | 44 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Ingvartsen | F | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| C. dos Santos | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Alvarado | F | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Pellegrino | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Godoy | M | 91 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Duah | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| C. McVey | D | 29 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Achouri | F | 79 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Pirani | M | 61 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| I. Murphy | D | 61 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Verhoeven | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| J. Tverskov | M | 46 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Kieran Sargeant | D | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| B. B. Zamble | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Þórhallsson | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Valakari | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Sisniega | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
- Fipster's AI model predicted San Diego to win against New York Red Bulls.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York Red Bulls 1–2 San Diego.
- What were the win probabilities for New York Red Bulls vs San Diego?
- Fipster's model gave New York Red Bulls a 25% chance of winning, San Diego a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 50% confidence — a medium-confidence call.