New York Red Bulls vs DC United
Match recap
New York Red Bulls and DC United drew 4–4 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Hall, Donkor, Ruvalcaba, and Ruvalcaba scored for New York Red Bulls; Baribo, Hopkins, Baribo, and Baribo replied for DC United. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.34 for New York Red Bulls versus 3.41 for DC United.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-2 New York Red Bulls win
Actual
4–4
Outcome probability
The upcoming clash between New York Red Bulls and DC United promises an exciting battle, with both sides boasting key offensive threats. Fans can anticipate a high-scoring affair as these teams vie for crucial points in the regular season.
Match factors
NY Red Bulls' attacking trio in strong form
Julian Hall, Jorge Ruvalcaba, and Ronald Donkor show strong recent scoring and assisting form, boosting home attack potential
Tai Baribo's prolific scoring for DC United
Baribo leads DC United with 14 goals in 21 games, a key threat despite team's lower win rate
Cade Cowell's creative influence for NY Red Bulls
Cowell's 6 assists and recent key passes highlight his role as primary playmaker
DC United missing Louis Munteanu
Munteanu's confirmed absence reduces DC United's attacking options and assist potential
Keisuke Kurokawa's dual defensive and assist role
Kurokawa provides defensive stability and leads DC United in assists, key for transitions
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 regular season, round 9. Both teams have shown attacking prowess, with New York Red Bulls holding a slight edge in head-to-head meetings, having won 9 of their 20 encounters compared to DC United's 4 wins. The average goals per match between these sides stand at 2.7, indicating an open and entertaining game.
Key insights
Julian Hall
New York Red Bulls
Top scorer with 11 goals this season, showing strong recent form and key to home attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 27 appearances, 0.41 goals/game
- J
Jorge Ruvalcaba Castro
New York Red Bulls
Important attacking outlet with 8 goals this season, including 2 goals against DC United recently.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 27 appearances, 0.30 goals/game
Tai Baribo
DC United
Leading scorer with 14 goals in 21 games, critical to DC United's offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 21 appearances, 0.67 goals/game
Analysis
New York Red Bulls' attacking trio, including Julian Hall and Jorge Ruvalcaba, have been in strong form, contributing significantly to their goal tally this season. Their home scoring record adds weight to their chances. Meanwhile, DC United's Tai Baribo remains a prolific scorer and a constant threat, despite the team's challenges. The absence of Louis Munteanu for DC United could hamper their attacking options, giving the Red Bulls a tactical advantage. Both teams have creative playmakers, with Cade Cowell and Ronald Donkor orchestrating chances for New York, while Keisuke Kurokawa provides both defensive stability and assists for DC United.
Key facts
- 1.New York Red Bulls have won 9 of 20 head-to-head matches against DC United.
- 2.The average goals per head-to-head match is 2.7, indicating open play.
- 3.Julian Hall is New York Red Bulls' top scorer with 11 goals this season.
- 4.Jorge Ruvalcaba scored 2 goals in the recent fixture against DC United.
- 5.Tai Baribo leads DC United with 14 goals in 21 games this season.
- 6.Cade Cowell provides creative spark with 6 assists for New York Red Bulls.
- 7.DC United's Louis Munteanu is out, reducing their attacking options.
- 8.Keisuke Kurokawa is DC United's top assister with 6 assists this season.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a New York Red Bulls victory with a 3-2 scoreline. Their attacking strength and home form should see them edge out DC United in a closely contested match. While the model's confidence is low, the aggregate probabilities favour a home win, making this the most likely outcome.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York Red Bulls
Away — DC United
The verdict
In summary, expect a thrilling encounter with goals aplenty. New York Red Bulls' offensive firepower and home advantage should just be enough to secure a narrow win over a determined DC United side. Fans should prepare for an entertaining match that could go down to the wire.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:48 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Hall
Assist: Donkor
Donkor
Baribo
Assist: Hopkins
Dos Santos
Mehmeti
Yellow Card
Ruvalcaba
Assist: Forsberg
Hopkins
Assist: Peglow
Baribo
Assist: Peglow
Mehmeti
Mosquera
Ruvalcaba
Assist: Donkor
Herrera
Ruvalcaba
Baribo
Assist: Hefti
Hopkins
Servania
Peltola
Yellow Card
Peglow
Clark
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
New York Red Bulls
Starting XI
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 6R. VoloderD
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 12D. NealisD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 48R. DonkorM
- 56M. Dos SantosD
- 79R. MosqueraF
Substitutes
- 4G. BerggrenM
- 7C. CowellF
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 20J. MinaD
- 23Joyeux Masanka BungiM
- 26T. ParkerD
- 37M. SofoF
- 39N. BenedettiM
- 77J. McCarthyG
DC United
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1S. JohnsonG
- 3L. BartlettD
- 4M. PeltolaM
- 5S. HeftiD
- 6K. KurokawaD
- 7PeglowM
- 9T. BariboF
- 15K. RowlesD
- 22A. HerreraM
- 23B. ServaniaM
- 25J. HopkinsF
Substitutes
- 8J. StroudM
- 12C. AntleyD
- 17J. MurrellF
- 24J. FarrG
- 26A. BonoG
- 27Nikola MarkovicD
- 30C. ClarkM
- 48Gavin TurnerM
- 77Hosei KijimaM
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Ruvalcaba | F | 80 | 9.0 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Ronald Donkor | M | 97 | 9.0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| Julian Hall | F | 97 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Adri Mehmeti | M | 65 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Emil Forsberg(C) | M | 97 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/5 |
| Rafael Mosquera | F | 65 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Matthew Dos Santos | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dylan Nealis | D | 97 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Voloder | D | 97 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty | D | 97 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ethan Horvath | G | 97 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nehuen Benedetti | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tim Parker | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cade Cowell | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John McCarthy | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Mina | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Sofo | F | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joyeux Masanka Bungi | M | 52 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/4 |
| Gustav Berggren | M | 32 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
DC United
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai Baribo | F | 97 | 10.0 | 3 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jackson Hopkins | F | 81 | 8.3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Silvan Hefti | D | 97 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| Matti Peltola | M | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| João Peglow | M | 93 | 6.9 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Aaron Herrera | M | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 4/6 |
| Kye Rowles | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Servania | M | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Lucas Bartlett(C) | D | 97 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keisuke Kurokawa | D | 97 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sean Johnson | G | 97 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Conner Antley | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gavin Turner | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jared Stroud | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Farr | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hosei Kijima | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Bono | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikola Markovic | D | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacob Murrell | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caden Clark | M | 20 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York Red Bulls vs DC United?
- Fipster's AI model predicted New York Red Bulls to win against DC United.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York Red Bulls vs DC United?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York Red Bulls 3–2 DC United.
- What were the win probabilities for New York Red Bulls vs DC United?
- Fipster's model gave New York Red Bulls a 35% chance of winning, DC United a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.