New York City FC vs St. Louis City
Match recap
New York City FC and St. Louis City drew 1–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Wolf scored for New York City FC; McSorley replied for St. Louis City. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.14 for New York City FC versus 1.40 for St. Louis City.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-3 St. Louis City win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
This MLS regular season encounter promises an intriguing battle between New York City FC and St. Louis City. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality, but the visitors appear poised to assert their dominance with a potent attacking lineup.
Match factors
St. Louis City's attacking depth and form
St. Louis City boasts multiple in-form attackers with strong recent scoring and assist rates, giving them a clear offensive edge.
Nicolás Fernández Mercau's scoring prowess
Fernández Mercau leads New York City FC with 15 goals, significantly above league average for attackers, making him a key threat.
Key midfield absences weaken New York City FC
Confirmed outs Keaton Parks and Maximiliano Moralez reduce NYCFC's midfield creativity and goal threat.
St. Louis City's consistent scoring streak
St. Louis City has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum heading into this fixture.
Thiago Martins' defensive leadership
As captain and key defender, Martins' high passing and tackling stats provide defensive stability for NYCFC.
The context
New York City FC and St. Louis City have met four times previously, with St. Louis City winning twice and the other two matches ending in draws. The head-to-head clashes have been relatively high-scoring affairs, averaging 3.5 goals per game. St. Louis City currently sit second in their league, boasting a solid points tally from their recent matches.
Key insights
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Navarro’s exceptional scoring rate of 7 goals in 6 games makes him a constant threat to NYCFC’s defence.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals in 6 appearances
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Fernández Mercau’s 15 goals this season highlight his importance as NYCFC’s main attacking outlet.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 27 appearances
- K
Keaton Parks
New York City FC
Parks’ confirmed absence reduces NYCFC’s midfield creativity and goal threat significantly.
Simon Becher
St. Louis City
Becher’s consistent scoring form with 9 goals this season adds to St. Louis City’s attacking depth.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 28 appearances
Analysis
St. Louis City’s attacking depth is impressive, featuring in-form forwards like Simon Becher and Rafael Navarro, who have been consistently finding the net. Navarro’s remarkable scoring rate of 7 goals in 6 appearances highlights his sharpness in front of goal. Meanwhile, New York City FC rely heavily on Nicolás Fernández Mercau, their top scorer with 15 goals this season, but the absence of key midfielders such as Keaton Parks and Maximiliano Moralez weakens their creative options. Defensive leadership from NYCFC’s captain Thiago Martins will be crucial, but the visitors’ offensive momentum and multiple goal threats give them a clear advantage.
Key facts
- 1.St. Louis City have won 2 of 4 head-to-head matches against New York City FC, with 2 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals per game, indicating open play.
- 3.St. Louis City rank 2nd in their league with 47 points from 27 games.
- 4.Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads NYCFC with 15 goals this season.
- 5.Rafael Navarro has scored 7 goals in just 6 appearances for St. Louis City.
- 6.Keaton Parks is out injured, weakening NYCFC’s midfield creativity.
- 7.St. Louis City have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong form.
Prediction
The forecast strongly favours an away win for St. Louis City, with a predicted final score of 3-1. Their attacking firepower and recent form suggest they will outscore New York City FC, who may struggle to contain the visitors’ forwards and compensate for their midfield absences.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York City FC
Away — St. Louis City
The verdict
In summary, St. Louis City’s blend of clinical finishing and consistent scoring streaks should see them comfortably overcome New York City FC. While NYCFC have standout performers, the visitors’ collective strength and tactical edge make them the likely winners in this MLS fixture.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:46 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Edelman
Yellow Card
Wolf
Assist: Moralez
Orozco
Yellow Card
Wolf
Yellow Card
Polvara
Yellow Card
Durkin
Córdova
Edelman
Parks
Gray
Rafael Santos
Becher
Ojeda
O'Neill
McSorley
Assist: MacNaughton
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 2 |  St. Louis City | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +8 | 51 |
Match Statistics
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5K. TrewinD
- 7N. Fernández MercauF
- 10M. MoralezM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 49M. FreeseG
- 55K. ParksM
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 19S. TanasijevićD
- 29M. CarrizoM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 87A. FarnosF
- 99S. ReidF
St. Louis City
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1R. BürkiG
- 6C. WallemM
- 8C. DurkinM
- 11S. BecherF
- 16S. CórdovaF
- 17M. HartelF
- 20Rafael SantosM
- 21D. PolvaraD
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 99J. OrozcoD
Substitutes
- 4M. FallD
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 14T. TotlandD
- 28M. PerezM
- 36C. TeuchertF
- 39B. LundtG
- 59M. JoynerM
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
- 80Brendan McSorleyF
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Martins(C) | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 88 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hannes Wolf | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 88 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Maxi Moralez | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0/2 |
| Keaton Parks | M | 75 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Kai Trewin | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seymour Garfield-Reid | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Máximo Carrizo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Tanasijević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arnau Farnos | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Shore | M | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico Cavallo | D | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Bürki(C) | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Dante Polvara | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Rafael Santos | M | 80 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Sergio Córdova | F | 71 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Marcel Hartel | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 4 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| Jaziel Orozco | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Conrad Wallem | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Daniel Edelman | M | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Timo Baumgartl | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher Durkin | M | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Simon Becher | F | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mamadou Mbacke | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Benjamin Lundt | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sang-bin Jeong | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomas Totland | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas MacNaughton | D | 19 | 7.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Brendan McSorley | F | 10 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Miguel Perez | M | 25 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mykhi Joyner | M | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Cedric Teuchert | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York City FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted St. Louis City to win against New York City FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York City FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York City FC 1–3 St. Louis City.
- What were the win probabilities for New York City FC vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's model gave New York City FC a 2% chance of winning, St. Louis City a 95% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.