New York City FC vs Orlando City SC
Match recap
New York City FC beat Orlando City SC 5–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Ojeda, Fernández Mercau, Moralez, Parks, and Parks scored for New York City FC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.52 for New York City FC versus 0.16 for Orlando City SC.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Orlando City SC win
Actual
5–0
Outcome probability
New York City FC and Orlando City SC face off in the third round of the MLS regular season, with both sides eager to assert their early-season credentials. The match promises a tactical battle between NYCFC's home scoring streak and Orlando's potent away attack.
Match factors
NYCFC's attacking trio in form
Nicolás Fernández Mercau, Agustin Ojeda, and Hannes Wolf show strong recent scoring and assist form, key to NYCFC's attack.
Orlando's offensive firepower led by Ojeda and Griezmann
Martín Ojeda and Antoine Griezmann combine high goal and assist rates, driving Orlando's predicted 2 goals.
Orlando's superior recent scoring form
Orlando has scored in last 5 away games consistently, with key players in good form, supporting predicted away win.
NYCFC's home scoring streak under pressure
NYCFC scores well at home but concedes frequently, recent defensive lapses may be exploited by Orlando's attack.
Full squads available for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions for either team, so strongest lineups expected, increasing match competitiveness.
The context
This fixture marks an intriguing chapter in the MLS regular season, where Orlando City SC have shown consistent scoring in their last five away games. New York City FC, meanwhile, have been prolific at home but have shown some defensive vulnerabilities that Orlando may exploit.
Key insights
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Leads team scoring with 15 goals, showing strong recent form and key offensive threat at home.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 26 apps, 0.58 goals/game
- A
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Top assister with 9 assists, creative engine for NYCFC, crucial in midfield play.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 27 apps, 0.33 assists/game
- M
Martín Ojeda
Orlando City SC
Orlando's leading scorer with 13 goals, prolific in away matches and key to predicted victory.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 21 apps, 0.62 goals/game
Antoine Griezmann
Orlando City SC
Creative playmaker with high goal and assist rates, driving Orlando's attack effectively.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals and 4 assists in 11 apps
Analysis
Orlando City SC's offensive threat is spearheaded by Martín Ojeda, who boasts 13 goals this season, including strong recent away performances. Antoine Griezmann complements this with a high goal and assist rate, making Orlando's attack formidable. New York City FC rely heavily on Nicolás Fernández Mercau and Agustin Ojeda for goals and creativity, but their defensive lapses at home could be costly. Both teams have full squads available, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Orlando City SC have scored in their last 5 away games.
- 2.New York City FC average strong home scoring but concede frequently.
- 3.Martín Ojeda leads Orlando with 13 goals this season.
- 4.Nicolás Fernández Mercau tops NYCFC scoring with 15 goals.
- 5.Both teams have full squads available for this match.
- 6.In 19 previous meetings, NYCFC have 9 wins, Orlando 2, with 8 draws.
- 7.Head-to-head matches average 3.0 goals per game.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards an away win for Orlando City SC with a 2-1 scoreline. Their recent away scoring form and key players' contributions suggest they can overcome NYCFC's home advantage. Expect a closely contested match with Orlando edging it by a narrow margin.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York City FC
Away — Orlando City SC
The verdict
In summary, while New York City FC have the firepower to challenge, Orlando City's consistent away performances and attacking duo give them the edge. Fans should prepare for an entertaining match where the visitors are likely to come out on top.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:18 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Reid-Brown
Yellow Card
Crépeau
Red Card
Spicer
Ojeda
Assist: Moralez
Fernández Mercau
Assist: Moralez
Moralez
Penalty
Luis Otávio
Reid-Brown
Parks
Assist: Gray
Parks
Ojeda
Moralez
Ojeda
Martins
Parks
Pasalic
Fernández Mercau
Match Statistics
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5K. TrewinD
- 7N. Fernández MercauF
- 10M. MoralezM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 49M. FreeseG
- 55K. ParksM
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 19S. TanasijevićD
- 29M. CarrizoM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 38A. BaieraD
- 99S. ReidF
Orlando City SC
5-3-2Starting XI
- 4D. BrekaloD
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaF
- 14T. SpicerD
- 21N. MillerD
- 24G. DorseyD
- 29T. Reid-BrownD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloM
- 87Marco PasalicF
Substitutes
- 3Adrián MarínD
- 11TiagoF
- 12Javier OteroG
- 13D. McGuireF
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 20E. AtuestaM
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 41D. JudelsonM
- 57IagoD
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keaton Parks | M | 71 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
| Maxi Moralez | M | 62 | 8.3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 71 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 87 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Martins(C) | D | 71 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kai Trewin | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hannes Wolf | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nico Cavallo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seymour Garfield-Reid | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Baiera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Shore | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 19 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Tanasijević | D | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Máximo Carrizo | M | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Talles Magno | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrese Spicer | D | 19 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Braian Ojeda | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Martín Ojeda(C) | F | 62 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iván Angulo | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/5 |
| Luis Otávio | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Pašalić | F | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nolan Miller | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Brekalo | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tahir Reid-Brown | D | 45 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Griffin Dorsey | D | 90 | 5.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Maxime Crépeau | G | 16 | 3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Harvey Sarajian | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Silva | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zakaria Taifi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dylan Judelson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Souza | F | 12 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eduard Atuesta | M | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Duncan McGuire | F | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Adrián Marín | D | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | 71 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York City FC vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Orlando City SC to win against New York City FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York City FC vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York City FC 1–2 Orlando City SC.
- What were the win probabilities for New York City FC vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster's model gave New York City FC a 23% chance of winning, Orlando City SC a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 53% confidence — a medium-confidence call.