New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls
Red Bulls sneak past NYCFC
J. Hall's second-half strike secures a narrow win away from home.
In a tight Major League Soccer clash, New York Red Bulls edged out New York City FC 1-0 thanks to J. Hall's decisive goal just after the hour mark. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction favouring a home win, the Red Bulls defied expectations to claim all three points on the road.
Outcome probability
The New York derby between New York City FC and New York Red Bulls promises a tactical battle with both sides eager to claim bragging rights. With a history of close encounters, this match is expected to be a tight affair.
Match factors
Nicolás Fernández Mercau's attacking dominance
Fernández Mercau leads with 14 goals and strong recent form, likely to be focal point in attack
Home team's superior scoring rate
New York City FC averages 1.56 goals per game, higher than away team's 1.3, supporting home win
Agustin Ojeda's recent assist surge
Ojeda has 3 assists in last 5 games, indicating creative form to unlock defense
Key absences weaken home midfield and attack
Out players include Keaton Parks and Maxi Moralez, reducing midfield creativity and depth
Away team's defensive stalwart Matthew Dos Santos
Dos Santos leads tackles and interceptions, crucial to contain home attackers
The context
This regular season clash sees two teams with a near-even head-to-head record: New York City FC have won 9 times, while New York Red Bulls have 8 wins, with 3 draws in their 20 meetings. The average goals per game in these encounters is 2.5, suggesting a moderately scoring game but nothing too extravagant.
Key insights
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Leads team scoring with 14 goals and strong recent form, making him the focal point of NYCFC's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 23 appearances, 0.61 goals/game
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Creative force with 6 assists this season, including 3 in the last 5 games, boosting NYCFC's attacking chances.
Major League Soccer 26/276 assists in 24 appearances, 0.25 assists/game
Julian Hall
New York Red Bulls
Top scorer for Red Bulls with 9 goals, key to their offensive threat despite recent dry spell.
Major League Soccer 26/279 goals in 24 appearances
- M
Matthew Dos Santos
New York Red Bulls
Defensive stalwart leading tackles and interceptions, vital for Red Bulls to contain NYCFC's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/27Leads team in tackles and interceptions, 79% passing accuracy
Analysis
New York City FC boast a slightly superior scoring rate this season, averaging 1.56 goals per game compared to the Red Bulls' 1.3. Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads the charge for NYCFC with 14 goals in 23 appearances, showing strong recent form and likely to be the key threat. Midfielder Agustin Ojeda’s recent surge in assists adds creative spark, while the Red Bulls rely on Julian Hall, their top scorer with 9 goals, to make an impact. Defensively, Matthew Dos Santos is a crucial figure for the Red Bulls, leading in tackles and interceptions to try and contain the home side’s attack.
Key facts
- 1.New York City FC have won 9 of the last 20 meetings against New York Red Bulls.
- 2.New York Red Bulls have won 8 of those 20 encounters, with 3 draws.
- 3.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals per game.
- 4.Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads NYCFC with 14 goals in 23 games this season.
- 5.Agustin Ojeda has provided 6 assists this season, including 3 in the last 5 games.
- 6.Julian Hall is the Red Bulls’ top scorer with 9 goals this season.
- 7.Matthew Dos Santos leads the Red Bulls in tackles and interceptions.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
We expect New York City FC to clinch a narrow 1-0 victory, with the halftime score also predicted to be 1-0. The match should be competitive but with the home side’s attacking edge and solid defensive organisation, they are favoured to come out on top. The game is also likely to see around four cards, reflecting the derby’s intensity.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York City FC
Away — New York Red Bulls
No standout top scorers flagged for New York Red Bulls
The verdict
In a fixture where margins are fine and history is tight, New York City FC’s attacking prowess and home advantage should just tip the scales. Expect a disciplined, tactical game with a single goal deciding the outcome.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mehmeti
Yellow Card
Cowell
Yellow Card
Cavallo
Yellow Card
Sofo
Yellow Card
O'Neill
Yellow Card
Hall
Luighi Hanri
Dos Santos
Wolf
Ojeda
Cowell
Mehmeti
Hall
Match Statistics
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 6J. SandsD
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 8A. PereaM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 49M. FreeseG
Substitutes
- 9B. TraoréF
- 16A. MartínezF
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 23Maxwell MurrayD
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 35M. IleničD
- 88M. JonesF
New York Red Bulls
4-3-3Starting XI
- 7C. CowellF
- 12D. NealisD
- 14J. BazánD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 17C. HarperF
- 26T. ParkerD
- 34E. HorvathG
- 37M. SofoM
- 48R. DonkorM
- 56M. Dos SantosD
Substitutes
- 6R. VoloderD
- 8D. RuízM
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 59D. PadelfordD
- 60S. KoneM
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 92D. NelichF
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Fernández | M | 93 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 75 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Hannes Wolf | M | 62 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Thiago Martins(C) | D | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Nico Cavallo | D | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Andrés Perea | M | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| James Sands | D | 93 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matthew Freese | G | 93 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jonathan Shore | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mitja Ilenič | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Max Murray | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bénie Traoré | F | 31 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| Alonso Martínez | F | 31 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Malachi Jones | F | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethan Horvath | G | 93 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julián Bazán | D | 93 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adri Mehmeti | M | 84 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Tim Parker | D | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald Donkor | M | 93 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Matthew Dos Santos | D | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Julian Hall | F | 84 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Dylan Nealis(C) | D | 93 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cade Cowell | F | 84 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Cameron Harper | F | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| Mohammed Sofo | M | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sekou Kone | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dennis Nelich | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emil Forsberg | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John McCarthy | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Voloder | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Ruvalcaba | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Ruíz | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Devin Padelford | D | 31 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's AI model predicted New York City FC to win against New York Red Bulls.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York City FC 1–0 New York Red Bulls.
- What were the win probabilities for New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's model gave New York City FC a 85% chance of winning, New York Red Bulls a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.