New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC
LAFC nicks a point in NYC
A late first-half strike from L. Walta set the tone before A. Perea's reply kept New York City FC from defeat.
Los Angeles FC took the lead just after the first half through L. Walta, only for New York City FC's A. Perea to level the score in the second half. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a 2-1 home win, leaving both sides to settle for a share of the spoils in this Major League Soccer clash.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, New York City FC and Los Angeles FC prepare to lock horns in what promises to be a tight encounter. Both sides boast key attacking talents, setting the stage for an entertaining battle.
Match factors
Nicolás Fernández Mercau's scoring prowess
Fernández Mercau leads with 15 goals this season and strong recent away form, giving NYCFC a key attacking edge
Dénis Bouanga's recent scoring streak
Bouanga has 5 goals in last 5 matches, providing LAFC a potent attacking threat especially away
Agustin Ojeda's creative impact
Ojeda's 10 assists this season and 4 in last 5 away games highlight his key role in NYCFC's chance creation
Son Heung-Min's dual threat
Son has contributed 6 goals and 10 assists this season with recent form showing multiple goal involvements
LAFC missing key attacker Jeremy Ebobisse
Ebobisse is confirmed out, reducing LAFC's attacking depth and increasing reliance on Bouanga and Son
The context
Los Angeles FC currently sit 6th in the league with 42 points from 29 games, reflecting a mixed bag of results with 11 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses. New York City FC, meanwhile, are looking to capitalise on their home advantage and recent form to climb the standings.
Key insights
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Fernández Mercau leads with 15 goals this season and strong recent away form, giving NYCFC a key attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 28 apps, 0.54 goals/game
Dénis Bouanga
Los Angeles FC
Bouanga has 5 goals in last 5 matches, providing LAFC a potent attacking threat especially away.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 25 apps, 0.56 goals/game
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Ojeda's 10 assists this season and 4 in last 5 away games highlight his key role in NYCFC's chance creation.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 29 apps, 0.34 assists/game
Son Heung-Min
Los Angeles FC
Son has contributed 6 goals and 10 assists this season with recent form showing multiple goal involvements.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 24 apps, 0.25 goals/game; 10 assists in 24 apps, 0.42 assists/game
Analysis
The prediction leans towards a home win, supported by aggregated probabilities favouring New York City FC at 43%, ahead of draws at 30% and away wins at 17%. The 2-1 scoreline is the second most likely fulltime result, suggesting a closely fought match. Nicolás Fernández Mercau stands out for New York City FC with 15 goals this season and strong recent away form, while Agustin Ojeda's 10 assists and recent creative spark add to their attacking threat. Los Angeles FC will rely heavily on Dénis Bouanga, who has netted 14 goals this season including a prolific run of 5 goals in the last 5 games. However, the absence of key attacker Jeremy Ebobisse weakens their offensive depth.
Key facts
- 1.Los Angeles FC are 6th in the league with 42 points from 29 games (W11 D9 L9).
- 2.Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads New York City FC with 15 goals this season.
- 3.Agustin Ojeda tops assists for New York City FC with 10 this season.
- 4.Dénis Bouanga has scored 14 goals for Los Angeles FC, including 5 in the last 5 matches.
- 5.Jeremy Ebobisse is confirmed out for Los Angeles FC, impacting their attacking options.
- 6.The most probable fulltime scoreline is 1-1, but 2-1 is the top choice for a home win.
- 7.The match is part of the regular season round 30.
Prediction
Expect New York City FC to clinch a 2-1 victory in a competitive match. Fernández Mercau and Ojeda's contributions should tip the balance in favour of the home side, despite Bouanga's efforts for Los Angeles FC.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York City FC
Away — Los Angeles FC
The verdict
This encounter promises a tight contest with both teams showcasing attacking talent. Ultimately, New York City FC's home edge and key player form should see them through to a narrow win, keeping their season ambitions alive.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 04:32 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Wolf
Yellow Card
O'Neill
Yellow Card
Walta
Ojeda
Yellow Card
Igor Jesus
Perea
Assist: Fernández Mercau
Shaffelburg
Hollingshead
Ojeda
Luighi Hanri
Long
Delgado
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 42 |
Match Statistics
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6J. SandsD
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 8A. PereaM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 49M. FreeseG
Substitutes
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 9B. TraoréF
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 16A. MartínezF
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 35M. IleničD
- 88M. JonesF
Los Angeles FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1H. LlorisG
- 6Igor JesusM
- 7Son Heung-MinM
- 8M. DelgadoM
- 18J. ShaffelburgM
- 23Y. CheberkoD
- 24R. HollingsheadD
- 33A. LongD
- 81L. WaltaM
- 91N. TafariD
- 99D. BouangaF
Substitutes
- 4E. SeguraD
- 5R. PorteousD
- 9A. SiebF
- 12T. HasalG
- 14Sergi PalenciaD
- 19T. BoydF
- 20S. VasquezM
- 21R. RaposoM
- 66M. ChoinièreM
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Fernández Mercau | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 5 | — |
| A. Perea | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| T. Gray | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Martins | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Sands | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. O'Toole | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. O'Neill | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Freese | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ojeda | M | 68 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| B. Traoré | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 68 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| H. Wolf | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| J. Shore | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ilenič | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Romero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Martínez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Miazga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Jones | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Los Angeles FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Walta | M | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| N. Tafari | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Long | D | 85 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | M | 58 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Cheberko | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| A. Sieb | F | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Sergi Palencia | D | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Porteous | D | 5 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Hollingshead | D | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Choinière | M | 32 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Delgado | M | 85 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Vasquez | M | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Shaffelburg | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Son Heung-Min | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/3 |
| D. Bouanga | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/3 |
| H. Lloris | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Raposo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Hasal | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Boyd | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Segura | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted New York City FC to win against Los Angeles FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York City FC 2–1 Los Angeles FC.
- What were the win probabilities for New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC?
- Fipster's model gave New York City FC a 45% chance of winning, Los Angeles FC a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 45% confidence — a medium-confidence call.