New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati
Match recap
New York City FC and FC Cincinnati drew 4–4 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Fernández Mercau, Fernández Mercau, Ojeda, and Talles Magno scored for New York City FC; Denkey, Denkey, and Evander replied for FC Cincinnati. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.56 for New York City FC versus 1.49 for FC Cincinnati.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 New York City FC win
Actual
4–4
Outcome probability
This MLS regular season clash between New York City FC and FC Cincinnati promises an intriguing battle, with both sides boasting attacking talents. Fans can expect a competitive match with goals on the cards.
Match factors
NYCFC's attacking trio in strong form
Nicolás Fernández Mercau and Hannes Wolf lead scoring with strong recent form, supported by Agustin Ojeda's creativity
FC Cincinnati's Denkey is a potent threat
Denkey's 13 goals in 21 games and recent scoring streak make him a key danger for NYCFC defense
FC Cincinnati missing key playmaker Evander
Evander's absence due to injury reduces midfield creativity and assist potential for Cincinnati
NYCFC's home scoring advantage
NYCFC averages 1.86 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted home win
FC Cincinnati's recent scoring streak
Cincinnati has scored in 4 consecutive matches, showing offensive momentum despite defensive issues
The context
In their 20 previous encounters, New York City FC have the upper hand with 10 wins compared to FC Cincinnati's 6, alongside 4 draws. These fixtures tend to be lively affairs, averaging 3.6 goals per game, highlighting the offensive capabilities of both teams.
Key insights
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Leads NYCFC scoring with 15 goals this season, showing strong recent form and consistent attacking threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 27 appearances, 0.56 goals/game
Ahoueke Denkey
FC Cincinnati
Key offensive player for Cincinnati with 13 goals in 21 games, currently on a scoring streak.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals in 21 appearances, 0.62 goals/game
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Top assister for NYCFC with 10 assists, providing creativity and key passes in attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 28 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
Analysis
New York City FC's attacking trio, led by Nicolás Fernández Mercau who has netted 15 goals this season, is in fine form and poses a significant threat. Supporting him, Hannes Tarn Wolf and Agustin Ojeda contribute both goals and assists, enhancing NYCFC's offensive potency. Meanwhile, FC Cincinnati rely heavily on Ahoueke Denkey, who has scored 13 goals in 21 games and is currently enjoying a scoring streak. However, Cincinnati's creativity is hampered by the absence of key playmaker Evander due to injury, which could limit their chances against a solid NYCFC defence.
Key facts
- 1.New York City FC have won 10 of 20 matches against FC Cincinnati, who have 6 wins and 4 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.6 goals, indicating an open and attacking fixture.
- 3.Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads NYCFC with 15 goals this season, a key offensive threat.
- 4.Ahoueke Denkey is FC Cincinnati's top scorer with 13 goals in 21 games.
- 5.NYCFC average 1.86 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 6.FC Cincinnati have scored in their last 4 matches, showing good offensive momentum.
- 7.FC Cincinnati are missing key playmaker Evander due to injury, impacting creativity.
Prediction
Given New York City FC's strong home scoring record, averaging 1.86 goals per game, and their historical edge over FC Cincinnati, a narrow 2-1 victory for NYCFC is the most likely outcome. The match is expected to be competitive, but the home side's attacking depth should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York City FC
Away — FC Cincinnati
The verdict
While the fixture promises goals and excitement, New York City FC's combination of form, home advantage, and attacking firepower should be enough to clinch the win. FC Cincinnati will push hard, but ultimately fall just short in this closely contested encounter.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:46 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Fernández Mercau
Hadebe
Denkey
Fernández Mercau
Assist: Moralez
Unknown
Yellow Card
Ojeda
Assist: O'Neill
Goal cancelled
Unknown
Unknown
Denkey
Assist: Valenzuela
Smith
Yellow Card
Wolf
Moralez
Talles Magno
Assist: Ojeda
Unknown
Ojeda
Fernández Mercau
Yellow Card
Evander
Penalty
Goal
Gray
Match Statistics
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5K. TrewinM
- 7N. Fernández MercauF
- 10M. MoralezM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 49M. FreeseG
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 19S. TanasijevićD
- 29M. CarrizoM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 55K. ParksM
- 87A. FarnosF
- 99S. ReidF
FC Cincinnati
3-4-1-2Starting XI
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 10EvanderF
- 15T. HadebeD
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 24K. SmithD
Substitutes
- 22G. ValenzuelaM
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 84 | 10.0 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4/5 |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 84 | 7.9 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Kai Trewin | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maxi Moralez | M | 72 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 5 | 1/1 |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Hannes Wolf | M | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Martins(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | 90 | 5.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Nico Cavallo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Máximo Carrizo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seymour Garfield-Reid | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 18 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Arnau Farnos | F | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Jonathan Shore | M | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Keaton Parks | M | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Strahinja Tanasijević | D | 11 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
FC Cincinnati
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kévin Denkey | F | 90 | 8.3 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/4 |
| Evander(C) | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 4/6 |
| Kyle Smith | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Teenage Hadebe | D | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Roman Celentano | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gerardo Valenzuela | M | 30 | 6.2 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster's AI model predicted New York City FC to win against FC Cincinnati.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York City FC 2–1 FC Cincinnati.
- What were the win probabilities for New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster's model gave New York City FC a 35% chance of winning, FC Cincinnati a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.