New York City FC vs Colorado Rapids
Match recap
New York City FC beat Colorado Rapids 3–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Fernández Mercau, Fernández Mercau, and Talles Magno scored for New York City FC; Yapi replied for Colorado Rapids. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.34 for New York City FC versus 0.76 for Colorado Rapids.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 New York City FC win
Actual
3–1
Outcome probability
New York City FC and Colorado Rapids face off in the fourth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to make their mark early in the campaign. NYCFC's attacking prowess and home form set the stage for an intriguing contest against a Colorado side showing offensive momentum despite some defensive concerns.
Match factors
NYCFC's attacking trio in strong form
Nicolás Fernández Mercau, Agustin Ojeda, and Hannes Wolf show strong recent scoring and assisting form, boosting NYCFC's attack.
NYCFC's home scoring advantage
NYCFC averages 1.86 goals per home game, above league average, supporting the predicted 2 goals in this match.
Colorado Rapids' scoring streak
Colorado Rapids have scored in their last 5 matches, showing offensive momentum despite defensive vulnerabilities.
Colorado Rapids missing key midfielders
Colorado's confirmed outs include key midfielders, potentially weakening creativity and defensive balance.
NYCFC's creative midfield dominance
Agustin Ojeda and Maximiliano Moralez exceed league averages in assists and key passes, likely to unlock Colorado's defense.
The context
This match is part of the regular season where New York City FC have demonstrated a solid home scoring record, averaging nearly two goals per game. Colorado Rapids, meanwhile, have been consistent in finding the net in recent matches but have struggled to maintain defensive stability. The Rapids currently sit eighth in their league, reflecting a mixed bag of results so far.
Key insights
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
League-leading scorer with 15 goals, crucial in NYCFC's attacking success and scored twice in this match.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 26 apps, 0.58 goals/game
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Top assister with 9 assists, providing key creativity and unlocking defenses, especially effective away but influential overall.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 27 apps, 0.33 assists/game
Paxten Aaronson
New York City FC
Balanced attacking midfielder with 7 goals and 7 assists, contributing both scoring and creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/277 goals and 7 assists in 27 apps
Rafael Navarro
Colorado Rapids
Consistent scoring threat with 10 goals this season, maintaining offensive momentum despite team defensive issues.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 22 apps, 0.45 goals/game
Analysis
New York City FC's attacking trio, led by Nicolás Fernández Mercau, has been in fine form, combining goal-scoring and creative contributions to great effect. Fernández Mercau himself has netted 15 goals this season, making him a key threat. Midfielders Agustin Ojeda and Maximiliano Moralez provide ample creativity, with Ojeda topping the assist charts. Colorado Rapids have shown resilience in attack, scoring in their last five matches, but injuries to key midfielders may hamper their ability to control the game and create chances. The Rapids' defensive vulnerabilities could be exploited by NYCFC's dynamic forward line.
Key facts
- 1.New York City FC have won 4 of 8 head-to-head meetings against Colorado Rapids.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals, with NYCFC scoring 16 and Colorado 7 in total.
- 3.Colorado Rapids are currently 8th in their league with 37 points from 28 games.
- 4.Nicolás Fernández Mercau scored 2 goals in this fixture, highlighting his offensive impact.
- 5.Colorado Rapids have scored in their last 5 matches, showing consistent attacking form.
- 6.NYCFC averages 1.86 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 7.Agustin Ojeda leads NYCFC with 9 assists this season, a key creative force.
- 8.Colorado Rapids are missing key midfielders due to injury, affecting their creativity.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for New York City FC. Their home scoring advantage and the attacking form of Fernández Mercau and company should be enough to overcome Colorado Rapids, who will likely find it tough to contain NYCFC's offensive threats while managing their own defensive frailties.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York City FC
Away — Colorado Rapids
The verdict
In summary, New York City FC's blend of goal-scoring firepower and creative midfield play, combined with Colorado Rapids' injury setbacks and defensive issues, points to a home win by a narrow margin. Expect an entertaining match with goals from both sides but ultimately a 2-1 success for NYCFC.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ojediran
Yellow Card
Fernández Mercau
Fernández Mercau
Yellow Card
O'Neill
Yellow Card
Yapi
Yellow Card
Yapi
Assist: Navarro
Fernández Mercau
Frederick II
Castillo Manyoma
Parks
Ojediran
Ojeda
Travis
Rosenberry
Talles Magno
Assist: Moralez
O'Neill
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
| 9 |  Colorado Rapids | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
Match Statistics
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5K. TrewinD
- 7N. Fernández MercauF
- 10M. MoralezM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 49M. FreeseG
- 55K. ParksM
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 19S. TanasijevićD
- 29M. CarrizoM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 38A. BaieraD
- 99S. ReidF
Colorado Rapids
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2K. RosenberryD
- 6R. HoldingD
- 8H. OjediranM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 10P. AaronsonM
- 11A. Castillo ManyomaM
- 13W. Frederick IIM
- 22L. HerringtonD
- 41N. DefreitasG
- 77D. YapiM
- 99J. TravisD
Substitutes
- 7D. SealyF
- 12J. AtencioM
- 16A. HarrisF
- 21T. Ku-DiPietroM
- 24N. CobbD
- 26M. DiopF
- 29M. NavarroD
- 31A. BeaudryG
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 89 | 8.9 | 2 | — | 5 | 5 | — | 0/2 |
| Keaton Parks | M | 63 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Maxi Moralez | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Kai Trewin | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Thiago Martins(C) | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Hannes Wolf | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/5 |
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Strahinja Tanasijević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Máximo Carrizo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Shore | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew Baiera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Seymour Garfield-Reid | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico Cavallo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 27 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 14 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Colorado Rapids
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paxten Aaronson | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 4/7 |
| Hamzat Ojediran | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Darren Yapi | M | 90 | 6.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/5 |
| Rafael Navarro | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/5 |
| Alexis Manyoma | M | 55 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Keegan Rosenberry(C) | D | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Lucas Herrington | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jackson Travis | D | 82 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Wayne Frederick | M | 55 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rob Holding | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Adam Beaudry | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jabari De Coteau | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Harris | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Cobb | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Atencio | M | 21 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamadou Billo Diop | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Dante Sealy | F | 35 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Theodore Ku-DiPietro | M | 35 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Navarro | D | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York City FC vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster's AI model predicted New York City FC to win against Colorado Rapids.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York City FC vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York City FC 2–1 Colorado Rapids.
- What were the win probabilities for New York City FC vs Colorado Rapids?
- Fipster's model gave New York City FC a 85% chance of winning, Colorado Rapids a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.