New York City FC vs Charlotte
Match recap
Charlotte beat New York City FC 2–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Fernández Mercau scored for New York City FC; Toklomati Giorno and Vargas replied for Charlotte. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.76 for New York City FC versus 1.04 for Charlotte.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Charlotte win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
This MLS regular season encounter promises a tight contest as New York City FC face Charlotte. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but Charlotte's recent away scoring form could prove decisive.
Match factors
Nicolás Fernández Mercau's scoring prowess
Fernández Mercau leads New York City FC with 15 goals, providing a focal point in attack
Idan Toklomati Giorno's away scoring form
Giorno has scored 4 goals in last 5 games away, boosting Charlotte's attack
Agustin Ojeda's creative influence
Ojeda's 10 assists this season and strong recent form make him a key playmaker
New York City FC missing key midfielders
Moralez and Parks are confirmed out, weakening midfield creativity and depth
Charlotte's consistent scoring streak
Charlotte has scored in last 5 away matches, showing strong offensive momentum
The context
In their 13 previous meetings, Charlotte hold a slight edge with six wins to New York City FC's five, and two draws. Matches between these sides average just over two goals, indicating a competitive but not overly high-scoring rivalry.
Key insights
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Fernández Mercau leads New York City FC with 15 goals, making him their key offensive threat this season.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 27 appearances, 0.56 goals/game
Idan Toklomati Giorno
Charlotte
Giorno has scored 4 goals in his last 5 away games, boosting Charlotte's attack on the road.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 27 appearances, 0.41 goals/game
Agustin Ojeda
Charlotte
Ojeda's 10 assists this season highlight his creative influence and key role in setting up goals.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 28 appearances, 0.36 assists/game
Analysis
Charlotte have been consistent on the road, scoring in their last five away matches, with Idan Toklomati Giorno leading the charge as their top scorer with 11 goals this season. New York City FC rely heavily on Nicolás Fernández Mercau, who has netted 15 times this campaign. However, the absence of key midfielders Moralez and Parks weakens their creative options. Agustin Ojeda's 10 assists underline his importance in Charlotte's playmaking, complementing Giorno's goal threat. The halftime scoreline of 0-1 in favour of Charlotte fits the pattern of a tightly contested first half, with the visitors edging ahead before New York City FC respond but ultimately fall short.
Key facts
- 1.Charlotte have won 6 of 13 meetings against New York City FC, who have 5 wins and 2 draws.
- 2.Matches between these teams average 2.2 goals per game.
- 3.Idan Toklomati Giorno is Charlotte's top scorer with 11 goals this season.
- 4.Nicolás Fernández Mercau leads New York City FC with 15 goals this campaign.
- 5.Charlotte have scored in their last 5 away matches, showing strong offensive form.
- 6.New York City FC are missing key midfielders Moralez and Parks for this match.
- 7.Agustin Ojeda has provided 10 assists this season, a key creative force for Charlotte.
- 8.The predicted halftime score is 0-1, consistent with Charlotte's early lead.
Prediction
Expect Charlotte to maintain their momentum and secure a 2-1 victory. Their ability to score away from home, combined with New York City FC's midfield absences, tips the balance in favour of the visitors. Nicolás Fernández Mercau will likely get on the scoresheet for New York City FC, but Charlotte's attacking duo of Giorno and Ojeda should be enough to clinch the win.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York City FC
Away — Charlotte
The verdict
This clash highlights the fine margins in MLS regular season matches. Charlotte's resilience and attacking prowess on the road give them the edge, while New York City FC will rue missing key midfielders. Fans can anticipate a competitive game with moments of quality from standout performers on both sides.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:34 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bronico
Yellow Card
Raul Gustavo
Yellow Card
Ream
Toklomati Giorno
Ojeda
Privett
Yellow Card
Aloko
Bronico
Raul Gustavo
Toklomati Giorno
Byrne
Yellow Card
Kahlina
Yellow Card
Parks
Yellow Card
Trewin
Biel
Vargas
Fernández Mercau
Assist: Wolf
Match Statistics
New York City FC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5K. TrewinM
- 7N. Fernández MercauF
- 10M. MoralezM
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 17H. WolfM
- 21A. O'NeillM
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaM
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 49M. FreeseG
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 15K. PierreM
- 19S. TanasijevićD
- 29M. CarrizoM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 32J. ShoreM
- 55K. ParksM
- 99S. ReidF
Charlotte
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. KahlinaG
- 3T. ReamD
- 8A. WestwoodM
- 9I. Toklomati GiornoF
- 10W. ZahaM
- 13B. BronicoM
- 14N. ByrneD
- 15H. ToffoloD
- 16Pep BielM
- 37R. AlokoM
Substitutes
- 4A. PrivettD
- 7A. GoodwinF
- 11L. AbadaF
- 17L. de la TorreM
- 18K. VargasF
- 21T. MillerG
- 23D. SchneggD
- 25Tyger SmallsF
- 28D. DianiM
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Fernández | F | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 3 | 3 | — | 1/1 |
| Hannes Wolf | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 4 | 1/3 |
| Thiago Martins(C) | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Maxi Moralez | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2/2 |
| Aiden O'Neill | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Kai Trewin | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Kevin O'Toole | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matthew Freese | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustin Ojeda | M | 67 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Tayvon Gray | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Strahinja Tanasijević | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Romero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Máximo Carrizo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Shore | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nico Cavallo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Pierre | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Keaton Parks | M | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Seymour Garfield-Reid | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Charlotte
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristijan Kahlina | G | 90 | 9.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Harry Toffolo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Tim Ream | D | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Idan Toklomati Jorno | F | 77 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Morrison Agyemang | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wilfried Zaha | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1/3 |
| Ashley Westwood(C) | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Brandt Bronico | M | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pep Biel | M | 89 | 6.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rodolfo Aloko | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Nathan Byrne | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| David Schnegg | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyger Smalls | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Liel Abada | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyler Miller | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Djibril Diani | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kerwin Calderón Vargas | F | 21 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Luca De La Torre | M | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Archie Goodwin | F | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Andrew Privett | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York City FC vs Charlotte?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Charlotte to win against New York City FC.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York City FC vs Charlotte?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York City FC 1–2 Charlotte.
- What were the win probabilities for New York City FC vs Charlotte?
- Fipster's model gave New York City FC a 13% chance of winning, Charlotte a 73% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 73% confidence — a high-confidence call.