New York City FC vs CF Montreal
Match recap
New York City FC and CF Montreal drew 1–1 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Perea scored for New York City FC; Ríos replied for CF Montreal. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.78 for New York City FC versus 0.78 for CF Montreal.
Outcome probability
As the regular season nears its climax, New York City FC face off against CF Montreal in what promises to be a tactical battle. With both teams eager to secure valuable points, the match is poised to showcase some fine attacking play and defensive resilience.
Match factors
NYCFC's attacking duo in strong form
Nicolás Fernández Mercau and Hannes Wolf show consistent scoring and assist contributions, providing NYCFC a potent attack.
Ojeda's creative influence for NYCFC
Agustin Ojeda leads NYCFC with 10 assists, well above league average for midfielders, boosting team's chance to score.
Montreal's Owusu remains key despite recent drought
Prince-Osei Owusu has 15 goals this season but no goals in last 5 matches, indicating potential for a return to scoring.
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups and tactical plans can be executed.
The context
This fixture is part of the 33rd round of the regular season, where every point counts. New York City FC have a strong record in head-to-head clashes against CF Montreal, having won more than half of their previous 20 meetings. The average goals per match between these sides hover around two, suggesting a balanced contest with a slight edge to the hosts.
Key insights
Nicolás Fernández Mercau
New York City FC
Top scorer with 15 goals this season, showing strong recent form and excellent home performance.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 30 appearances, 0.5 avg per game
Agustin Ojeda
New York City FC
Leading assister with 10 assists, key creative force boosting NYCFC’s scoring chances.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 assists in 31 appearances, 0.32 avg per game
Prince-Osei Owusu
CF Montreal
Top scorer with 15 goals, remains a key offensive threat despite a recent goal drought.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 26 appearances, 0.58 avg per game
Analysis
New York City FC boast a potent attacking duo in Nicolás Fernández Mercau and Hannes Tarn Wolf, who have been consistently finding the net and setting up chances. Fernández Mercau, in particular, has netted 15 goals this season and thrives on home turf. Midfielder Agustin Ojeda adds creativity with his 10 assists, making NYCFC's forward line a formidable threat. CF Montreal's Prince-Osei Owusu, their top scorer with 15 goals, has been less prolific recently but remains a key figure. Both teams have full squads available, so expect a well-contested match with New York City FC's attacking edge likely to prevail.
Key facts
- 1.New York City FC have won 11 of 20 head-to-head matches against CF Montreal.
- 2.The average goals per head-to-head match is 2.0, with NYCFC scoring 28 and Montreal 13 in total.
- 3.Nicolás Fernández Mercau is NYCFC's top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 4.Agustin Ojeda leads NYCFC with 10 assists, providing key creativity.
- 5.Prince-Osei Owusu is CF Montreal's top scorer with 15 goals this season.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 1-0 in favour of New York City FC.
- 7.The predicted fulltime score is 2-0 to New York City FC.
- 8.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed absences.
Prediction
We anticipate New York City FC to take an early lead, going into halftime 1-0 up. Their attacking momentum should continue into the second half, culminating in a 2-0 victory. The match is expected to be competitive, with around four cards issued, reflecting a spirited encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — New York City FC
Away — CF Montreal
The verdict
In summary, New York City FC's blend of attacking flair and home advantage should see them comfortably overcome CF Montreal. While Montreal will pose challenges, the hosts' consistency and firepower make them the favourites to secure all three points with a clean sheet.
Prediction generated 29 Oct 2026, 01:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
O'Toole
Yellow Card
Sánchez
Yellow Card
Pereira
Yellow Card
Perea
Assist: Fernández Mercau
O'Toole
Escobar
Yellow Card
Shore
Yellow Card
Talles Magno
Yellow Card
Shore
Traoré
Talles Magno
Perea
Radojević
Yellow Card
Escobar
Piette
Bugaj
Synchuk
Ríos
Herbers
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
New York City FC
4-3-3Starting XI
- 6J. SandsD
- 7N. Fernández MercauM
- 8A. PereaM
- 9B. TraoréF
- 11Talles MagnoF
- 13Thiago MartinsD
- 22K. O'TooleD
- 24T. GrayD
- 26A. OjedaF
- 32J. ShoreM
- 49M. FreeseG
Substitutes
- 2Nico CavalloD
- 3M. MiazgaD
- 17H. WolfF
- 20Luighi HanriF
- 27C. FlaxM
- 30T. RomeroG
- 34Raul GustavoD
- 55K. ParksM
- 88M. JonesF
CF Montreal
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4B. VeraD
- 5B. CraigD
- 6S. PietteM
- 7D. PereiraM
- 10A. SánchezF
- 16W. CarmonaM
- 18H. SynchukM
- 27D. BugajD
- 28V. RadojevićD
- 29O. EscobarM
- 41S. KeitaG
Substitutes
- 1S. BrezaG
- 8M. LongstaffM
- 13L. PetrassoD
- 14D. RíosF
- 17D. SealyF
- 21F. HerbersF
- 22V. LoturiM
- 23N. StreitM
- 24E. MoralesD
New York City FC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Perea | M | 70 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| T. Gray | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Sands | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Thiago Martins | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Fernández Mercau | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| Luighi Hanri | F | 33 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Shore | M | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Nico Cavallo | D | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Parks | M | 20 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Freese | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Talles Magno | F | 57 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| K. O'Toole | D | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ojeda | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| B. Traoré | F | 57 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| H. Wolf | F | 33 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Raul Gustavo | D | 33 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Jones | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Flax | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Romero | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Miazga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
CF Montreal
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Ríos | F | 4 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| B. Craig | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Pereira | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| S. Keita | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Petrasso | D | 16 | 6.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Piette | M | 74 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Longstaff | M | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Sánchez | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| D. Bugaj | D | 74 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| O. Escobar | M | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| F. Herbers | F | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Carmona | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| V. Radojević | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Vera | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| H. Synchuk | M | 86 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Sealy | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Breza | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Loturi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Morales | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Streit | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win New York City FC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster's AI model predicted New York City FC to win against CF Montreal.
- What score did Fipster predict for New York City FC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster predicted a final score of New York City FC 2–0 CF Montreal.
- What were the win probabilities for New York City FC vs CF Montreal?
- Fipster's model gave New York City FC a 77% chance of winning, CF Montreal a 11% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 77% confidence — a high-confidence call.