Serbia vs Netherlands
Meerdink's brace seals Dutch win
Netherlands edge Serbia 2-1 in a tight Nations League clash.
M. Meerdink proved the difference for the Netherlands with a penalty in the first half and a second goal after the break, despite L. Jović's immediate reply for Serbia. The 2-1 scoreline reflects a narrow victory that defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring a Serbian win. A classic case of the underdog script flipping on its head.
Outcome probability
Serbia and the Netherlands face off in a League A match where both sides have shown glimpses of attacking promise but also defensive vulnerabilities. This fixture promises a competitive battle with Serbia narrowly favoured to come out on top.
Match factors
Serbia's attacking threat from A. Živković
Živković scored Serbia's only goal in their last home match, showing he can exploit defensive gaps.
Netherlands rely on C. Gakpo for offense
Gakpo scored and had a high rating in last match, key to Netherlands' attacking play.
Defensive solidity from S. Pavlović and M. van de Ven
Both defenders showed strong tackling and passing, crucial for their teams' defensive balance.
Both teams scored in their last home matches
Serbia and Netherlands both scored in recent home fixtures, indicating offensive potential despite defensive concessions.
The context
In this League A round 2 fixture, Serbia have played one match so far in the competition, losing 2-1 while scoring once. The Netherlands have drawn their only match 1-1, showing resilience but also room for improvement. Both teams have found the net in their recent home matches, indicating offensive potential despite conceding goals.
Key insights
- A
A. Živković
Serbia
Živković scored Serbia's only goal in their last home match, showing he can exploit defensive gaps.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in this competition
- C
C. Gakpo
Netherlands
Gakpo scored and had a high rating in last match, key to Netherlands' attacking play.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in this competition
- S
S. Pavlović
Serbia
Pavlović's high pass volume and tackling contribute to Serbia's defensive stability.
UEFA Nations League 26/2762 passes and 3 tackles in last match
- M
M. van de Ven
Netherlands
Van de Ven's strong tackling and passing are crucial for Netherlands' defensive setup.
UEFA Nations League 26/274 tackles and 38 passes in last match
Analysis
Serbia's attacking threat is spearheaded by A. Živković, who scored their only goal in the last home match and carries a strong attacking presence with an 8.2 rating. Defensively, S. Pavlović's high pass volume and tackling contribute to Serbia's stability. The Netherlands rely heavily on C. Gakpo for offensive output, who scored and earned a 7.76 rating in their last match. Defenders M. van de Ven and D. Dumfries provide solidity, though Dumfries' disciplinary record could be a concern. Both teams have shown the ability to score but also concede, setting the stage for a close contest.
Key facts
- 1.Serbia have played 1 match in this competition (0W 0D 1L, GF 1 / GA 2).
- 2.Netherlands have played 1 match in this competition (0W 1D 0L, GF 1 / GA 1).
- 3.A. Živković scored Serbia's only goal in their last home match.
- 4.C. Gakpo scored for the Netherlands in their last match and is a key offensive player.
- 5.S. Pavlović and M. van de Ven provide strong defensive contributions for their teams.
- 6.D. Dumfries received a yellow card in the last match, posing a disciplinary risk.
- 7.Both teams scored in their last home matches, showing offensive potential.
- 8.Prediction favours a 2-1 home win for Serbia with a halftime lead of 1-0.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for Serbia with a halftime lead of 1-0 and a final score of 2-1. This outcome reflects the highest probability among home win scenarios, suggesting Serbia will edge the Netherlands in a closely fought match. Expect a total of around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Serbia
No standout best passers flagged for Serbia
Away — Netherlands
The verdict
While the call favours Serbia to claim victory, the low confidence in this prediction reminds us that this one could easily swing either way. Both teams have the firepower to score, but Serbia's home advantage and key players might just tip the balance in their favour.
Prediction generated 24 Sep 2026, 20:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Lukić
Yellow Card
Gakpo
Meerdink
Penalty
Milinković-Savić
Joveljić
Jović
Assist: Lukić
Nedeljković
Stanković
Gravenberch
Reijnders
Meerdink
Assist: Til
Pavlović
Meerdink
Dumfries
Timber
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Serbia
5-4-1Starting XI
- 2K. NedeljkovićD
- 3S. PavlovićD
- 6N. GudeljD
- 7A. StankovićM
- 9D. JoveljićF
- 14A. ŽivkovićM
- 15S. BabićD
- 17A. TerzićD
- 20S. Milinković-SavićM
- 22S. LukićM
- 23V. Milinković-SavićG
Substitutes
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 4V. DragojevićM
- 5N. MaksimovićM
- 8L. JovićF
- 10D. TadićF
- 11F. KostićM
- 12F. StankovićG
- 13N. SimićD
- 16S. ErakovićD
- 18M. CvetkoviÄF
- 21L. SamardžićM
Netherlands
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6J. van HeckeD
- 7C. SummervilleF
- 8R. GravenberchM
- 11C. GakpoF
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 15M. van de VenD
- 17M. MeerdinkF
- 18J. VeermanM
- 22D. DumfriesD
Substitutes
- 2J. TimberD
- 3J. HatoD
- 5N. AkéD
- 9J. ZirkzeeF
- 10N. LangF
- 12K. TaylorM
- 13R. RoefsG
- 16G. TilM
- 19Q. TimberM
- 20T. KoopmeinersM
- 21R. van BommelF
- 23M. FlekkenG
Serbia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Jović | F | 44 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 6 | 3 | — | — |
| D. Tadić | F | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| S. Lukić | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| V. Milinković-Savić | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Babić | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Gudelj | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Joveljić | F | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Nedeljković | D | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| F. Kostić | M | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Stanković | M | 59 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Eraković | D | 31 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Maksimović | M | 31 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Živković | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| A. Terzić | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| S. Milinković-Savić | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Pavlović | D | 71 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. CvetkoviÄ | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Đ. Petrović | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Stanković | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Samardžić | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Dragojević | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Simić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Netherlands
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Meerdink | F | 80 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1/2 |
| B. Verbruggen | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Dumfries | D | 80 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | — |
| T. Reijnders | M | 67 | 7.4 | — | — | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1/3 |
| J. van Hecke | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Veerman | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| G. Til | M | 23 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| V. van Dijk | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. van Bommel | F | 73 | 7.0 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2/2 |
| M. van de Ven | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Gakpo | F | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| R. Gravenberch | M | 67 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| C. Summerville | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/5 |
| Q. Timber | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Timber | D | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Taylor | M | 23 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Koopmeiners | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Flekken | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Aké | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Lang | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Zirkzee | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Roefs | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hato | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Serbia vs Netherlands?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Serbia to win against Netherlands.
- What score did Fipster predict for Serbia vs Netherlands?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Serbia 2–1 Netherlands.
- What were the win probabilities for Serbia vs Netherlands?
- Fipster's model gave Serbia a 38% chance of winning, Netherlands a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 38% confidence — a low-confidence call.