Greece vs Netherlands
Netherlands snatch late draw in Athens
Greece's early double lead slips away as Van Dijk and Reijnders rescue a point for the visitors.
Greece looked set for victory after goals from F. Ioannidis and G. Masouras before the break, but the Netherlands fought back with V. van Dijk pulling one back after the break and T. Reijnders leveling in the 89th minute. The 2-2 draw defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow home win, turning what seemed a settled match into a shared spoils affair.
Outcome probability
This League A round 3 fixture sees Greece and the Netherlands face off in what promises to be a closely contested match. Both teams have shown solid form so far, making this a tantalising prospect for fans of tight, tactical football.
Match factors
Greece's midfield scoring threat
Christos Tzolis offers a scoring edge from midfield with 1 goal in 1 game, above league average
Meerdink's scoring form for Netherlands
Mexx Meerdink has scored 2 goals in 2 games, showing strong finishing form
Greece's recent away scoring streak
Greece have scored in their last 2 away matches, showing positive attacking momentum
Pavlidis-Tzolis connection
Vangelis Pavlidis' assist to Tzolis in recent match highlights key attacking link
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, ensuring strongest lineups possible
The context
Greece have won both their matches in this competition so far, scoring three goals and conceding just one. The Netherlands remain unbeaten with a win and a draw, netting three goals and conceding two. Both sides have demonstrated resilience and attacking intent, setting the stage for a competitive encounter.
Key insights
Christos Tzolis
Greece
Offers a scoring edge from midfield with 1 goal in 1 game, above league average.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 90 mins played
Mexx Meerdink
Netherlands
Has scored 2 goals in 2 games, showing strong finishing form and consistency.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals in 2 appearances, 135 mins played
Vangelis Pavlidis
Greece
Key attacking link with 1 assist in 1 game, connecting well with Tzolis.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 1 appearance, 74 mins played
Guus Til
Netherlands
Creative midfielder with 1 assist in 2 games, effective in away matches.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 2 appearances, 30 mins played
Analysis
The probabilities suggest a very tight contest, with a slight edge to Greece for a home win. The most likely halftime score is 0-0, indicating a cautious start from both sides. Greece's recent away scoring streak and the strong attacking link between Vangelis Pavlidis and Christos Tzolis provide them with a tactical advantage. Meanwhile, the Netherlands rely on the goal-scoring form of Mexx Meerdink and the creativity of Guus Til. Discipline is expected to be moderate, with around four cards likely in total.
Key facts
- 1.Greece have won both their matches in this competition (2-1 and 1-0 away).
- 2.Netherlands remain unbeaten with a win and a draw in this competition.
- 3.Greece have scored 3 goals and conceded 1 in their two matches so far.
- 4.Netherlands have scored 3 goals and conceded 2 in their two matches so far.
- 5.The most likely halftime score is 0-0, suggesting a tight first half.
- 6.The predicted total number of cards is 4, indicating moderate discipline.
- 7.Christos Tzolis has scored 1 goal in 1 game, above the league midfielder average.
- 8.Mexx Meerdink leads Netherlands with 2 goals in 2 games, showing strong form.
Prediction
We predict a narrow 2-1 victory for Greece, with the first half ending goalless before the home side edges ahead in the second half. The match should be competitive, but Greece's recent form and key attacking players give them the slight upper hand.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Greece
Away — Netherlands
The verdict
Expect a tight and tactical game with Greece just about coming out on top. The Netherlands will push hard, but Greece's momentum and attacking connections should see them claim the three points in this League A fixture.
Prediction generated 27 Sep 2026, 20:41 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Tzolis
Ioannidis
Assist: Masouras
Masouras
Assist: Ioannidis
van Bommel
Timber
Til
van Dijk
Assist: Veerman
Goal cancelled
Tzolakis
Yellow Card
Meerdink
Pavlidis
Ioannidis
Lang
Yellow Card
Saliakas
Yellow Card
Timber
Androutsos
Karetsas
Reijnders
Match Statistics
Greece
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4K. MavropanosD
- 5P. RetsosD
- 6D. KourbelisM
- 8F. IoannidisF
- 10C. TzolisM
- 12K. TzolakisG
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 15T. AndroutsosM
- 17M. SaliakasD
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 21K. TsimikasD
Substitutes
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 2T. TsaprasM
- 3K. KoulierakisD
- 7G. MasourasF
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 11C. KostoulasF
- 13C. MandasG
- 16A. TettehF
- 18G. MichailidisD
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 22G. KiriakopoulosD
- 23C. MouzakitisM
Netherlands
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1B. VerbruggenG
- 4V. van DijkD
- 6Q. TimberM
- 7C. SummervilleF
- 11R. van BommelF
- 12J. TimberD
- 15M. van de VenD
- 16G. TilM
- 17M. MeerdinkF
- 18J. VeermanM
- 22D. DumfriesD
Substitutes
- 2J. FrimpongD
- 3J. HatoD
- 5N. AkéD
- 8R. GravenberchM
- 9J. ZirkzeeF
- 10N. LangF
- 13R. RoefsG
- 14T. ReijndersM
- 19K. TaylorM
- 20T. KoopmeinersM
- 21G. ZechiëlM
- 23M. FlekkenG
Greece
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ioannidis | F | 71 | 8.3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| G. Masouras | F | 72 | 7.7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| K. Mavropanos | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| P. Retsos | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Michailidis | D | 7 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Douvikas | F | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Tetteh | F | 19 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Saliakas | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Kourbelis | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| K. Tsimikas | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| K. Karetsas | M | 83 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| C. Zafeiris | M | 19 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Tzolis | M | 18 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Tzolakis | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Pavlidis | F | 71 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| T. Androutsos | M | 83 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Vlachodimos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Tsapras | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Koulierakis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Kiriakopoulos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mandas | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mouzakitis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Kostoulas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Netherlands
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Reijnders | M | 44 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| J. Veerman | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| V. van Dijk | D | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| N. Lang | F | 44 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 4/5 |
| J. Zirkzee | F | 20 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Timber | D | 78 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| C. Summerville | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2/8 |
| Q. Timber | M | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. van de Ven | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Dumfries | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Gravenberch | M | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| B. Verbruggen | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Meerdink | F | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| G. Zechiël | M | 12 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| G. Til | M | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| R. van Bommel | F | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Aké | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Frimpong | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Roefs | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hato | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Taylor | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Flekken | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Koopmeiners | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Greece vs Netherlands?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Greece to win against Netherlands.
- What score did Fipster predict for Greece vs Netherlands?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Greece 2–1 Netherlands.
- What were the win probabilities for Greece vs Netherlands?
- Fipster's model gave Greece a 43% chance of winning, Netherlands a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 43% confidence — a low-confidence call.