NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
NEC Nijmegen claw back to deny Groningen
Willumsson's early brace not enough as hosts rally for a draw
Groningen looked set for victory with B. Willumsson's two first-half goals putting them firmly in control. However, NEC Nijmegen fought back after the break with Clement Bischoff and N. Lebreton scoring to level the match at 2-2. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an away win, turning what looked like a Groningen triumph into a shared point.
Outcome probability
NEC Nijmegen and Groningen face off in what promises to be a high-scoring affair, with both sides eager to climb the league table in this regular season clash.
Match factors
Chery's Away Scoring Threat
Chery's strong away goal form (4 goals in 4 away games) gives NEC a key attacking edge on the road
Schuurs' Offensive Contribution from Defense
Schuurs exceeds league average defender scoring and assisting rates, adding unexpected attacking options
Groningen's Consistent Scoring Streak
Groningen has scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive momentum away from home
Tadić's Doubtful Status Limits NEC Creativity
Tadić's injury status caps his assist probability, reducing NEC's creative options if he misses
The context
Groningen currently sit 7th with 14 points from 9 games, showing more consistency than NEC Nijmegen, who are 11th with 9 points from 8 games. Their head-to-head history is fairly balanced, with NEC winning 9 of 20 matches and Groningen 6, alongside 5 draws. Matches between these two have averaged 3.4 goals, hinting at an open game.
Key insights
Tjaronn Chefren Chery
NEC Nijmegen
Chery's prolific away scoring form gives NEC a key attacking edge despite their league position.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 4 away games this season
Perr Schuurs
NEC Nijmegen
Schuurs adds unexpected attacking threat from defense with goals and assists above league average for defenders.
Eredivisie 26/272 goals and 2 assists in 5 appearances
Dušan Tadić
NEC Nijmegen
Tadić's doubtful injury status limits NEC's creative options, potentially impacting their attacking fluidity.
Eredivisie 26/271 assist in 7 games
Analysis
Groningen have been on a scoring streak, netting in their last five matches, which bodes well for their attacking prospects here. NEC's top attacker, Tjaronn Chefren Chery, boasts an impressive away record with 4 goals in 4 away games, making him a key threat despite NEC's lower league position. Groningen's defensive solidity is anchored by Jorg Schreuders, who leads the team in tackles and duels won, crucial for containing NEC's forwards. Meanwhile, NEC's creative spark Dušan Tadić is doubtful with injury, potentially limiting their attacking fluidity.
Key facts
- 1.NEC Nijmegen have won 9 of 20 head-to-head matches against Groningen, who have won 6, with 5 draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.4 goals, indicating a high-scoring potential.
- 3.Groningen are 7th in the league with 14 points from 9 games (W4 D2 L3).
- 4.NEC Nijmegen are 11th with 9 points from 8 games (W2 D3 L3).
- 5.Groningen have scored in their last 5 matches, showing strong offensive form.
- 6.Tjaronn Chefren Chery has scored 4 goals in 4 away games this season, leading NEC's attack.
- 7.Dušan Tadić is doubtful with injury, which may limit NEC's creativity.
- 8.Perr Schuurs contributes offensively from defense with 2 goals and 2 assists this season.
Prediction
The forecast is for a narrow away win, with Groningen taking an early lead and maintaining it to finish 3-2. The halftime scoreline of 1-2 suggests Groningen will start strongly, but NEC will fight back in the second half. Expect a competitive match with four cards likely, reflecting the intensity of the encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — NEC Nijmegen
Away — Groningen
No standout top scorers flagged for Groningen
The verdict
This fixture should deliver plenty of excitement and goals, with Groningen's consistent scoring and NEC's attacking threats setting the stage for a close contest. Fans can anticipate a lively match where the visitors just edge out the hosts.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 19:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Willumsson
Assist: Rente
Willumsson
Assist: van Bergen
Willumsson
Yellow Card
Schuurs
Kaplan
Fonville
van der Werff
Yellow Card
Bischoff
Assist: Nejašmić
Goal confirmed
Kers
Lebreton
Csinger
de Jonge
Willumsson
van der Werff
Hateboer
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 |
Match Statistics
NEC Nijmegen
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1G. CrettazG
- 4P. SchuursD
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 9T. CheryM
- 20N. LebretonM
- 22A. KaplanD
- 24Deveron FonvilleD
- 30B. LinssenF
- 34Kevin KersM
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 99Clement BischoffM
Substitutes
- 5M. BakkerD
- 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 12N. PolsterG
- 14K. SierhuisF
- 18D. GeigerM
- 19Adam TahauiF
- 21T. StormD
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
- 73Gabriel BrásD
Groningen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1E. VaessenG
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 5M. RenteD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 14J. SchreudersM
- 17D. van der WerffM
- 24P. ClementM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 33H. HateboerD
Substitutes
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 7T. HernesM
- 11J. OndrejkaF
- 12M. BrandisD
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
- 16A. NordinM
- 18T. LandM
- 19O. ZawadaF
- 20Nils EggensF
- 30P. BoevinkG
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 44Besnik MashukuM
NEC Nijmegen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Lebreton | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2/4 |
| D. Nejašmić | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0/2 |
| Clement Bischoff | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0/4 |
| K. Sierhuis | F | 34 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kers | M | 68 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| T. Chery | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0/2 |
| P. Schuurs | D | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Kaplan | D | 56 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Deveron Fonville | D | 56 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Adam Tahaui | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Storm | D | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Linssen | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Bakker | D | 34 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamiro Monteiro | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| G. Crettaz | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Brás | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Freek Entius | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Polster | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Geiger | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Willumsson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Hansen-Aarøen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Groningen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Willumsson | F | 73 | 8.7 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| M. Rente | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| E. Vaessen | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Hateboer | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nils Eggens | F | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Blokzijl | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Csinger | D | 72 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. de Jonge | M | 73 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/1 |
| P. Clement | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Wouter Prins | D | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Hernes | M | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| T. Land | M | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. van Bergen | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/5 |
| J. Schreuders | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/3 |
| D. van der Werff | M | 77 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| L. Štubljar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Nordin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Zawada | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Boevink | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Besnik Mashuku | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Brandis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mosselaar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Ondrejka | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Groningen to win against NEC Nijmegen.
- What score did Fipster predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of NEC Nijmegen 2–3 Groningen.
- What were the win probabilities for NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen?
- Fipster's model gave NEC Nijmegen a 8% chance of winning, Groningen a 83% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 83% confidence — a high-confidence call.