NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen held to draw by resilient Excelsior
A late equaliser from N. Lebreton rescues NEC from defeat after Excelsior's second-half fightback.
NEC Nijmegen looked set for victory after Adam Tahaui's early strike, but Excelsior fought back with goals from D. Garden and V. Sulzbacher to take the lead. N. Lebreton's stoppage-time goal ensured NEC salvaged a point in a 2-2 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a comfortable home win.
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with NEC Nijmegen facing Excelsior in what promises to be an intriguing clash. Both teams have reshaped their squads over the summer, setting the stage for a competitive encounter as they look to make a strong start.
Key facts
- 1.NEC Nijmegen ranks 3rd with 59 points from last season.
- 2.Excelsior finished 13th with 38 points last season.
- 3.NEC Nijmegen's goal difference last season was +24, significantly better than Excelsior's -13.
- 4.NEC Nijmegen averaged 1.74 points per game last season, compared to Excelsior's 1.12.
- 5.NEC Nijmegen signed K. Sierhuis and Jamiro Monteiro on free transfers and Danilo on loan.
- 6.NEC Nijmegen lost K. Sano and B. Önal to transfers.
- 7.Excelsior lost D. Sanches Fernandes, A. Zagré, and I. Bronkhorst during the summer.
The context
NEC Nijmegen have bolstered their ranks with the arrivals of K. Sierhuis and Jamiro Monteiro on free transfers, alongside Danilo joining on loan. Meanwhile, they have parted ways with K. Sano and B. Önal through transfers. Excelsior, on the other hand, have seen the departures of D. Sanches Fernandes, A. Zagré, and I. Bronkhorst, leaving them somewhat leaner heading into the campaign.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — NEC Nijmegen
Away — Excelsior
Analysis
Looking at the broader picture, NEC Nijmegen hold a significant advantage in league standing and goal difference from last season, finishing 3rd with 59 points and a +24 goal difference compared to Excelsior's 13th place and -13 goal difference. Their points per game average of 1.74 also outshines Excelsior's 1.12, indicating a stronger and more consistent side. These factors suggest NEC Nijmegen's attacking and defensive balance will be key in overcoming Excelsior's challenges.
Prediction
The forecast sees NEC Nijmegen taking an early lead by halftime with a 1-0 scoreline, eventually extending their advantage to a 3-1 victory by full time. The match is expected to be competitive but ultimately controlled by NEC Nijmegen, with a moderate number of four cards anticipated, reflecting a spirited but fair contest.
The verdict
In summary, NEC Nijmegen's summer reinforcements and superior previous season metrics position them well to claim all three points against Excelsior. Fans can expect an entertaining match with NEC Nijmegen asserting their quality to start the season on a high note.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Jamiro Monteiro
Yellow Card
Tahaui
Assist: Willumsson
Garden
Assist: Yegoian
Janssen
Nuytinck
Jamiro Monteiro
Hartjes
Yellow Card
Geiger
Hansen-Aarøen
Garden
Þorsteinsson
Meissen
Yellow Card
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
Sulzbacher
Assist: Sliti
Silva Timas
Brás
Lebreton
Assist: Schuurs
Sulzbacher
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 19 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 7 |  Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 11 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
Match Statistics
NEC Nijmegen
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
- 10D. TadićF
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 12N. PolsterG
- 17B. NuytinckD
- 18D. GeigerM
- 19Adam TahauiM
- 21T. StormD
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 73Gabriel BrásD
- 77A. ThomasM
Substitutes
- 1G. CrettazG
- 3P. SandlerD
- 4P. SchuursD
- 9T. CheryM
- 14K. SierhuisF
- 20N. LebretonM
- 34Kevin KersF
- 38Joep GenesteG
- 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
- 99Clement BischoffF
Excelsior
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraM
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 8I. YegoianM
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenM
- 19D. GardenF
- 20L. HartjesM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
- 6D. van VianenM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 12K. BosF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 22O. TurayD
- 23Y. FineyM
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 28N. GroenF
NEC Nijmegen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Lebreton | M | 27 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Adam Tahaui | M | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Kevin Kers | F | 27 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Clement Bischoff | F | 3 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| T. Storm | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jamiro Monteiro | M | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Sandler | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Schuurs | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| W. Willumsson | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| B. Nuytinck | D | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Geiger | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Brás | D | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Polster | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Hansen-Aarøen | M | 63 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/7 |
| A. Thomas | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 3/7 |
| D. Tadić | F | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Joep Geneste | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Sierhuis | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Chery | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Crettaz | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Excelsior
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Garden | F | 67 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| V. Sulzbacher | M | 19 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Sliti | F | 23 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| I. Yegoian | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3/7 |
| J. Plug | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Bos | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Jahanbakhsh | F | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Groen | F | 23 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| I. Silva Timas | F | 81 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/3 |
| Á. Þorsteinsson | F | 67 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | M | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. van Gassel | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| C. Widell | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Janssen | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Hartjes | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Meissen | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Celton Biai | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. van Vianen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Finey | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Domínguez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Turay | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giulliano Cairo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
- Fipster's AI model predicted NEC Nijmegen to win against Excelsior.
- What score did Fipster predict for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
- Fipster predicted a final score of NEC Nijmegen 3–1 Excelsior.
- What were the win probabilities for NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior?
- Fipster's model gave NEC Nijmegen a 92% chance of winning, Excelsior a 4% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 92% confidence — a high-confidence call.