Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC steamroll Sporting Kansas City
A commanding four-goal display seals a dominant home victory.
Nashville SC delivered a clinical performance against Sporting Kansas City, racing to a 3-0 lead within the first half thanks to goals from H. Mukhtar, S. Surridge, and A. Najar. The home side capped off their emphatic win with a late penalty from W. Madrigal in stoppage time, rounding off a 4-0 triumph. Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a home win was spot on, though the actual scoreline exceeded expectations.
Outcome probability
Nashville SC look poised to continue their impressive run with a solid home performance against Sporting Kansas City. With key attackers in fine form and the visitors struggling for consistency, this match promises a clear outcome.
Match factors
Nashville SC's potent home attack
Nashville averages nearly 3 goals per home game, with top scorers Surridge and Mukhtar in strong form.
Mukhtar's recent scoring surge
Hany Mukhtar has scored 4 goals in last 5 matches, boosting Nashville's attacking threat.
Espinoza's creative consistency
Cristian Espinoza has 9 assists this season and 2 in last 5, key to Nashville's goal creation.
Absence of Warren Madrigal weakens Nashville's depth
Madrigal is confirmed out with a lower-body injury, reducing attacking options off the bench.
Sporting Kansas City's injury doubts limit attacking options
Several key players including Manu García and Capita are doubtful, capping their impact probabilities.
The context
This fixture is part of the regular season's 29th round, where Nashville SC currently lead the league standings with strong form, while Sporting Kansas City languish near the bottom in 15th place. The visitors have struggled to find rhythm, making this a tough challenge for them.
Key insights
Samuel Surridge
Nashville SC
League-leading scorer with 15 goals, consistently finding the net and in strong recent form.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 19 appearances, 0.79 goals/game
Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
Scored 4 goals in last 5 matches, boosting Nashville's attacking threat significantly.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals in 25 appearances, 0.4 goals/game
Cristian Espinoza
Nashville SC
Top assister with 9 assists, providing key creativity and chance creation at home.
Major League Soccer 26/279 assists in 21 appearances, 0.43 assists/game
Dejan Joveljić
Sporting Kansas City
Top scorer for Sporting Kansas City but currently in a goal drought with no goals in last 5 matches.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 19 appearances, 0.42 goals/game
Analysis
Nashville SC boast a potent home attack, averaging nearly three goals per game on their turf. Samuel Surridge leads the charge with 15 goals this season, supported by Hany Mukhtar, who has netted four times in his last five matches. Cristian Espinoza's creativity, with nine assists, further bolsters their offensive threat. Sporting Kansas City, on the other hand, face injury doubts and a dip in form, particularly from their top scorer Dejan Joveljić, who has failed to score in recent games. This combination of factors heavily favours the home side.
Key facts
- 1.Nashville SC rank 1st in the league with strong recent form.
- 2.Sporting Kansas City sit 15th with 21 points from 27 games.
- 3.Samuel Surridge leads Nashville with 15 goals in 19 appearances.
- 4.Hany Mukhtar has scored 4 goals in his last 5 matches.
- 5.Cristian Espinoza tops assists for Nashville with 9 this season.
- 6.Sporting Kansas City's top scorer Dejan Joveljić has no goals in last 5 matches.
- 7.Predicted halftime score is 2-0 in favour of Nashville SC.
- 8.Modal total cards expected in the match is 4.
Prediction
Expect Nashville SC to take control early, leading 2-0 by halftime and cruising to a 3-0 victory by full time. The match should feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards anticipated. Sporting Kansas City's struggles and injury concerns make a comeback unlikely.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Nashville SC
Away — Sporting Kansas City
The verdict
In summary, Nashville SC's attacking prowess and home advantage make them clear favourites to secure a comfortable win. Sporting Kansas City's poor form and injury doubts only add to the uphill battle they face in this encounter.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 02:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Mukhtar
Assist: Najar
Surridge
Assist: Mukhtar
Najar
Assist: Espinoza
Bassong
André Luiz
Reid
Goal cancelled
Najar
Espinoza
James
Corcoran
Mukhtar
Reid
Surridge
Penalty confirmed
Madrigal
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 14 |  Austin | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -18 | 31 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 30 | 6 | 4 | 20 | -39 | 22 |
Match Statistics
Nashville SC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3M. WoledziD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 11E. SaadM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 20E. TagsethM
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 31A. NajarD
- 99B. SchwakeG
Substitutes
- 1J. WillisG
- 2D. LovitzD
- 5J. MaherD
- 6B. AcostaM
- 8P. YazbekM
- 14S. MohammedM
- 19A. MuylM
- 22J. BauerD
- 41W. MadrigalF
Sporting Kansas City
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2I. JamesD
- 11André LuizM
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 22Z. BassongM
- 24R. RamosF
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 29S. ReidF
- 30S. ClevelandG
- 93M. SuleymanovM
- 99J. ReidD
Substitutes
- 1J. PulskampG
- 7CapitaF
- 8J. DavisM
- 14C. HarrisF
- 16J. BartlettD
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 18E. KarićD
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 23E. BartlowD
Nashville SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H. Mukhtar | M | 76 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 3/3 |
| A. Najar | D | 68 | 8.8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| S. Surridge | F | 83 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 5 | 4 | — | — |
| C. Espinoza | M | 68 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1/3 |
| J. Palacios | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Woledzi | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| E. Saad | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| D. Lovitz | D | 22 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| R. Baker-Whiting | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Corcoran | M | 76 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Schwake | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Muyl | M | 7 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Acosta | M | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Mohammed | M | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Tagseth | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Madrigal | F | 14 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Yazbek | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bauer | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Maher | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Willis | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sporting Kansas City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Cleveland | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Ramos | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| K. Agyabeng | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Wyatt Meyer | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Harris | F | 44 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Calheira | F | 37 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Reid | D | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| I. James | D | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Z. Bassong | M | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jansen Miller | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Reid | F | 53 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Suleymanov | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Bartlett | D | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Karić | D | 9 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Davis | M | 21 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Luiz | M | 46 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| E. Bartlow | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Capita | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Afrifa | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Pulskamp | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Nashville SC to win against Sporting Kansas City.
- What score did Fipster predict for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Nashville SC 3–0 Sporting Kansas City.
- What were the win probabilities for Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster's model gave Nashville SC a 91% chance of winning, Sporting Kansas City a 4% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 91% confidence — a high-confidence call.