Nashville SC vs Orlando City SC
Match recap
Nashville SC beat Orlando City SC 5–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Espinoza, Surridge, Surridge, Surridge, and Madrigal scored for Nashville SC. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.23 for Nashville SC versus 0.56 for Orlando City SC.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-1 Nashville SC win
Actual
5–0
Outcome probability
Nashville SC and Orlando City SC face off in the fifth round of the regular season, with Nashville looking to extend their impressive home form. Both teams have shown attacking intent, but Nashville's firepower at home could prove decisive.
Match factors
Nashville's potent attacking duo in form
Surridge and Mukhtar combine high goal and assist tallies, driving Nashville's strong home attack
Orlando's creative threat from Ellis and Angulo
Ellis leads assists and Angulo contributes goals, key to Orlando's attacking chances
Nashville missing Madrigal reduces attacking depth
Madrigal's absence due to injury removes a secondary scoring option for Nashville
Nashville's superior home scoring rate
Nashville averages 2.93 goals per home game vs Orlando's 1.86, indicating offensive edge
Nashville's strong recent home form
Nashville has won 5 of last 5 home games scoring in each, showing strong momentum
The context
This fixture sees Nashville SC continuing their strong run at home, where they've scored nearly three goals per game on average. Orlando City SC, meanwhile, have struggled to keep pace away from home, facing a tough challenge against a side with a potent attack.
Key insights
Samuel Surridge
Nashville SC
Top scorer in the league with 16 goals, driving Nashville's attack with high shot volume and conversion rate.
Major League Soccer 26/2716 goals, 21 apps, 0.76 goals/game
Hany Mukhtar
Nashville SC
Creative playmaker with 13 goals and 6 assists, excellent home scoring form boosting Nashville's offensive threat.
Major League Soccer 26/2713 goals, 27 apps, 0.48 goals/game; 6 assists, 27 apps, 0.22 assists/game
Justin Ellis
Orlando City SC
Top assister for Orlando with 8 assists, key to their chance creation despite the team's struggles away from home.
Major League Soccer 26/278 assists, 19 apps, 0.42 assists/game
Analysis
Nashville SC's attacking duo, Samuel Surridge and Hany Mukhtar, have been in fine form, combining for a significant number of goals and assists this season. Surridge, the league's top scorer, has been particularly clinical, while Mukhtar's creativity adds an extra dimension. Orlando City's key offensive threats, including Martín Ojeda and Justin Ellis, will need to be at their best to contain Nashville's relentless pressure. However, Nashville's superior home scoring rate and recent momentum suggest they will control the match.
Key facts
- 1.Nashville SC average 2.93 goals per home game this season.
- 2.Orlando City SC average 1.86 goals per away game this season.
- 3.Samuel Surridge is the league's top scorer with 16 goals in 21 games.
- 4.Hany Mukhtar has scored 13 goals and provided 6 assists this season.
- 5.Nashville SC have won their last 5 home games, scoring in each.
- 6.Orlando City SC's top scorer Martín Ojeda has 13 goals this season.
- 7.Justin Ellis leads Orlando City SC with 8 assists this season.
Prediction
We predict Nashville SC to take a comfortable 2-0 lead by halftime and maintain their dominance to finish with a 4-1 victory. Their attacking efficiency and home advantage should be too much for Orlando City SC to handle.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Nashville SC
Away — Orlando City SC
The verdict
In summary, Nashville SC's strong home form and attacking prowess make them the clear favourites to secure a convincing win over Orlando City SC. Expect a lively match with plenty of goals, but ultimately a comfortable victory for Nashville.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Espinoza
Assist: Najar
Miller
Yellow Card
Surridge
Penalty
Luis Otávio
Surridge
Unknown
McGuire
Muyl
Surridge
Assist: Espinoza
Espinoza
Yazbek
Dorsey
Iago
Yellow Card
Surridge
Baker-Whiting
Madrigal
Najar
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Nashville SC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3M. WoledziD
- 4J. PalaciosD
- 7C. EspinozaM
- 8P. YazbekM
- 9S. SurridgeF
- 10H. MukhtarM
- 19A. MuylM
- 20E. TagsethM
- 27R. Baker-WhitingD
- 31A. NajarD
- 99B. SchwakeG
Substitutes
- 1J. WillisG
- 2D. LovitzD
- 5J. MaherD
- 6B. AcostaM
- 16M. CorcoranM
- 17W. PaciusF
- 22J. BauerD
- 37A. QasemF
- 41W. MadrigalF
Orlando City SC
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5Luis OtávioM
- 8B. OjedaM
- 10M. OjedaM
- 13D. McGuireF
- 21N. MillerD
- 24G. DorseyD
- 57IagoD
- 71M. CrépeauG
- 77I. AnguloM
- 87Marco PasalicM
Substitutes
- 11TiagoF
- 12Javier OteroG
- 19Z. TaifiM
- 22Justin EllisF
- 23Harvey SarajianF
- 25Colin GuskeM
- 29T. Reid-BrownD
- 34Y. TsukadaF
- 41D. JudelsonM
Nashville SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Surridge | F | 78 | 9.3 | 3 | — | 4 | 4 | — | 1/2 |
| Cristian Espinoza | M | 68 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Jeisson Palacios | D | 95 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hany Mukhtar(C) | M | 95 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1/1 |
| Edvard Sandvik Tagseth | M | 95 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Brian Schwake | G | 95 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andy Najar | D | 95 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Maxwell Woledzi | D | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Reed Baker-Whiting | D | 78 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Patrick Yazbek | M | 68 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Alex Muyl | M | 61 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Jack Maher | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josh Bauer | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joe Willis | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryan Acosta | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Warren Madrigal | F | 27 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Ahmed Qasem | F | 34 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel Lovitz | D | 17 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Woobens Pacius | F | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Matthew Corcoran | M | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Orlando City SC
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan McGuire | F | 59 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Braian Ojeda | M | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Iván Angulo | M | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Luis Otávio | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Martín Ojeda(C) | M | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Griffin Dorsey | D | 72 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Adrián Marín | D | 59 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marco Pašalić | M | 95 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Maxime Crépeau | G | 95 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Silva | D | 95 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nolan Miller | D | 95 | 5.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Harvey Sarajian | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dylan Judelson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Justin Ellis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Javier Otero | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tahir Reid-Brown | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Colin Guske | M | 50 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Souza | F | 36 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Zakaria Taifi | M | 36 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Yutaro Tsukada | F | 23 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Nashville SC vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Nashville SC to win against Orlando City SC.
- What score did Fipster predict for Nashville SC vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Nashville SC 4–1 Orlando City SC.
- What were the win probabilities for Nashville SC vs Orlando City SC?
- Fipster's model gave Nashville SC a 95% chance of winning, Orlando City SC a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.